March 1, 2026, 2:11 a.m. ET

The Vegas Golden Knights (28-17-14) and Pittsburgh Penguins (30-15-13) meet Sunday. Puck drop from PPG Paints Arena in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, is set for 1 p.m. ET (TNT / HBO Max). Let’s analyze BetMGM Sportsbook’s NHL odds around the Golden Knights vs. Penguins odds and make our expert NHL picks and predictions.

Season series: First meeting; split 1-1 last season

Vegas saw a 3-game win streak end Friday with a 3-2 loss at the Washington Capitals. The Golden Knights were +100 underdogs as the Under (6) cashed. The Golden Knights were outshot 30-26 and couldn’t generate enough scoring despite the return of their 5 Olympians. RW Braeden Bowman and C Tomas Hertl scored in the third period for Vegas, cutting the deficit to 1 after Washington scored 3 times in the second period.

Pittsburgh lost Saturday, falling 3-2 in a shootout at the New York Rangers. The Penguins were slight -120 favorites and the Under (6) came through. RW Anthony Mantha and D Ryan Shea scored for the Penguins, who led 2-0 just 1:59 into the second period. Pittsburgh were dominated in faceoffs, while G Stuart Skinner played admirable, allowing 2 goals on 25 shots in the loss, and the Pens were dominated.

Watch the NHL on Fubo!Golden Knights at Penguins odds

Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 2:10 a.m. ET.

Moneyline (ML): Golden Knights -150 (bet $150 to win $100) | Penguins +125 (bet $100 to win $125)Puck line (PL)/Against the spread (ATS): Golden Knights -1.5 (+155) | Penguins +1.5 (-190)Over/Under (O/U): 6 (O: -125 | U: +105)Golden Knights at Penguins projected goalies

Akira Schmid (16-7-6, 2.55 GAA, .895 SV%, 2 SO) vs. Stuart Skinner (19-12-6, 2.76 GAA, .891 SV%, 2 SO)

Schmid made 2 starts in February, going 1-1 with a 2.54 GAA and a .906 SV%. He allowed 3 goals on 30 shots in Saturday’s loss at the Capitals. In his other February start, the Swiss native beat the Vancouver Canucks 5-2 Feb. 4, stopping 21 of 23 shots. He has never faced Pittsburgh in his career.

Skinner also made 2 starts in February but lost both — Saturday’s shootout and a 5-4 OT defeat at the New York Islanders Feb. 3. He allowed 7 goals on 48 shots in February, posting a 4.93 goals-against average and .854 SV%. Skinner owns a 5-3-1 record in 9 regular-season games against Vegas with a 2.76 GAA and .901 SV%. In the postseason, he is 4-5-0 with a 2.91 GAA and .897 SV% in 9 appearances against the Golden Knights.

Golden Knights at Penguins picks and predictionsPrediction

Penguins 3, Golden Knights 2

BET PENGUINS (+125).

Pittsburgh is in a strong spot to get the win Sunday. The Penguins have won 2 of their last 3, beating Buffalo and New Jersey with the loss coming in the shootout at the Rangers. They took a hit with C Sidney Crosby’s lower-body injury suffered in the Olympics, but expect C Evgeni Malkin to continue his bounce-back season. A veteran core gives Pittsburgh a clear edge in close games.

Vegas, meanwhile, is in the middle of a 5-game road trip and has dealt with injuries and inconsistent defensive play. The Golden Knights have also relied heavily on overtime and shootouts to stay competitive.

While young players like Pittsburgh C Ben Kindel have made an impact and the team has responded well to a new structure, this feels like a favorable matchup for the more experienced Penguins at home.

PASS.

No need to play with the puck line when we’re getting Pittsburgh on the moneyline at plus odds.

BET UNDER 6 (+105).

The Under has been the right play when these teams meet, cashing in the last 4 matchups. Vegas has gone Under in 2 of its last 3 games, while Pittsburgh has stayed Under in each of its last 2. With both teams dealing with injuries and missing key offensive pieces, scoring chances could be limited again. Expect a tight, low-scoring game.

For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com and BetFTW.

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