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The trade market for the Maple Leafs might not be as strong as they’d hoped according to Chris Johnston, who mentioned a potential first rounder is off the table due to league-wide skepticism that any of their assets hold that much value to contenders — and that can make their retool a lot harder than expected.
Right now, the Toronto Maple Leafs are the frontrunners to be sellers ahead of the deadline. Sitting with a 27-24-10 record and near the basement of the Atlantic Division, the playoffs are pretty much an afterthought.
With a combination of desperate contenders, a dwindling market and needing to make serious roster changes they could walk away with a restocked draft pool at the end of the day.
But they are also mulling over whether or not to re-sign certain players like Scott Laughton and Bobby McMann, and TSN’s Chris Johnston ended up explaining why their decision isn’t as straightforward as we think.
The ‘First-Round Fallacy’: Why the Maple Leafs might not have a first-round asset
Johnston appeared on The Leaf Report and noted that sources close to him have expressed some skepticism regarding Toronto’s assets and don’t believe that any of their players could bring back what they covet most:
I can tell you from conversations even I’ve had as recent as this morning, there’s some skepticism out there, the Leafs are even going to be able to get a first-round pick for any of their players.
Now there’s no guarantee that Toronto can’t get a first-round pick for some of their players, but with teams hesitant to break the bank or mortgage their future; they may think twice.
It doesn’t help that McMann and Laughton haven’t really picked things up since the Olympic break and have been unable to boost their value even more. McMann has gone scoreless in his last four games meanwhile Laughton has two points in 10 games while also a minus-4 while finding a steep drop in his defensive game.
But Toronto still has a chance to add a first-round pick as they hold a couple other options that some teams may decide are worth the price:
– (D) Oliver Ekman-Larsson (Age: 34, 35 points, $3.5-million cap hit)
– (F) Nicolas Roy (Age: 28, 20 points, $3-million cap hit)
– (D) Brandon Carlo (Age: 29, 5 points, $3.485-million cap hit)
If Toronto were to retain salary on any of those players, that would instantly boost their value, and they wouldn’t be taking on too much extra money even at 50%. Retaining on a player like Roy might be enough to push a team like Edmonton over the top and give them the idea a 2027 first-rounder is worth it.
History shows Toronto could still end up with a pick; or at least something comparable
You have contenders like the Oilers, Avalanche, Stars, Hurricanes, and Sabres who need pieces like Roy or McMann to give them that extra edge. For a team like Buffalo — who is on pace to make the playoffs for the first time in 14 years, buying high seems like a great way to keep the postseason alive.
Jake Walman was dealt for a first-round pick last year, and he could be compared to someone like Ekman-Larsson albeit a bit younger and more physical, meanwhile up front Anthony Beauvillier and Brock Nelson brought back a second and first round pick respectively.
Right there, you have a precedent that teams who are desperate to win like Colorado and Washington set, and knowing what could be out there it’s worth a shot to be open to as many options as possible.
If all else fails, Toronto needs to accept any trades that include a second or third round pick on top of a prospect. If Isaac Howard and a 2026 second-round pick is on the table from Edmonton, that’s as good as getting a first-round pick anyways (he’s 21 years old and a 31st overall pick).
With the Maple Leafs’ playoff hopes dashed, a chance to sell high on some intriguing pieces and open up the roster space needed for the younger players to get their shine, they may not be lucky enough to get that first-round pick — but the desperate succeed because they have nothing to lose.
So what’s the harm in asking?
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Maple Leafs retool challenged as trade market falls short of first-round returns
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