CHICAGO — The Colorado Avalanche punched the first ticket to the NHL’s postseason tournament, but it will be a while before the club has a dance partner for the first round.
Making the playoffs has been inevitable for months. Colorado has been atop the league standings since Nov. 1. The lead has swelled to as much as 12 points, but it was only four after a 4-1 win Friday night at the United Center.
Who the Avs will play in the first round first depends on their ability to hold off the Dallas Stars for the top spot in the Central Division and the Western Conference. If the Stars vault past them in the final 14 games of the season, the Avalanche will face the Minnesota Wild — fifth in the NHL as of Saturday morning. If the Avs hang on to the division title, it could be a host of teams in the second wild-card spot.
Who should they want to play? Is there anyone they might want to avoid? Let’s rank the potential first-round opponents, from worst to best.
NOTE: We’re not including Dallas on this list. It would take basically the worst collapse in NHL for the Wild to pass both Dallas and Colorado and force the rivals into another first-round slugfest. If that’s happening again this year, it will be in the second round of the tournament.
10. Minnesota Wild
This one is pretty obvious. The Wild have been the third-best team in the NHL for a decent chunk of the season. They added Quinn Hughes, have two of the best forwards in the league and two goalies that are capable of stealing a game or two. While Minnesota does not have the center depth that Colorado and Dallas can roll out, the Wild does have a bunch of physical depth players. Playing them in a series will likely be a disadvantage in the second round, if the Stars or Avs get past them.
9. Edmonton Oilers
This one is also pretty simple. The Oilers have been mediocre at times this season. They’ve also finished 5th and 6th in the West the past two seasons, and ended up in the Stanley Cup Final. The goaltending is bad, but Connor McDavid and a presumably healthy-by-then Leon Draisaitl can make that not matter.
8. Utah Mammoth
There’s a pretty good argument that Utah is the fourth-best team in the West. The Mammoth might still finish with the fourth-most points. If they slip to eighth … the Mammoth don’t have a lot of playoff experience, but they have been plenty frisky against the Avs in the four matchups this year. Utah is going to be a problem soon, though it might not be for another year.
7. Vegas Golden Knights
Vegas should probably be grouped with Edmonton. This team is much better on paper than its record. It has Stanley Cup-winning DNA in the room. But … it just hasn’t been right for the Golden Knights for much of this season. It’s mostly the goaltending, and maybe Adin Hill can find the magic he conjured in 2023. Doesn’t feel like it’s going to happen, though.
If we’re being honest, the rest of this list is more “which teams might be annoying and extend the series.”
6. Los Angeles Kings
The Kings have won 18 games in regulation. Chicago has won 19. Those 16 overtime/shootout losses are doing a lot of work to keep Los Angeles in the race. If the Kings do make it, they have a strong goaltender who knows the Avs well in Darcy Kuemper. They can play defense and muck up games. They also addressed a major need ahead of the deadline by signing Artemi Panarin, who can still be a gamebreaker. If Kevin Fiala can return from injury for the playoffs, they could be prickly.
5. Winnipeg Jets
It’s pretty unlikely that Winnipeg can make it all the way back to a playoff spot after falling as low as 32nd place earlier in the season. But, if they do make it … the Jets will be one of the hottest teams in the league and Connor Hellebuyck will be riding some kind of heater from the Winter Olympics through a late-season surge.
4. Anaheim Ducks
The Ducks are the least likely opponent on this list. They lead the Pacific Division right now, even if Utah’s “goal differential” is plus-32 better. That’s goosed by Anaheim’s 8-0 record in shootouts. There are no shootouts in the playoffs. Seriously, the Mammoth are probably going to be favored in that series, if it does happen.
3. San Jose Sharks
It looks like the Sharks are the only team in this group running out of gas. They’re still in it, though. They are clearly the worst defensive team in the mix. Colorado might score five goals a game against them. But Macklin Celebrini and Co. also might turn a couple of them into shootouts — the traditional kind with goals galore, not the one-on-one skills competitions.
2. Seattle Kraken
Maybe the Kraken should be a little higher on this list because of 2023. That Avs team was coming off a Cup run and riddled with injuries, though. It’s also possible that this Seattle team is not as good as the one from four years ago. The Kraken are 31st in the league in expected goals for percentage (xGF%) at even strength. Nathan MacKinnon said the Avs didn’t play that well in Seattle last week. They won 5-1.
1. Nashville Predators
Nashville traded away four players at the deadline, including Nick Blankenburg to Colorado, and yet is still hanging around in the wild-card race. The Avs swept the Predators in 2022 in the famous “waste of eight days” series, as then-Calgary coach Darryl Suter called it. If the Avs play like they did against Dallas and Chicago over the final 14 games, this matchup could be pretty similar.
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