RALEIGH, N.C. — The Carolina Hurricanes look poised to reclaim the Metropolitan Division title and could take the top spot in the Eastern Conference. Carolina is all but assured to have home ice in the first round, and likely would have it for another round or two after that.
One thing the Hurricanes don’t know? Who they will be hosting when the playoffs begin in the third week in April. That’s not uncommon — there is plenty of shuffling and jockeying for position in the season’s final 20 games. But the uncertainty of how the playoff seeding will shake out means Carolina could face any of seven (sorry, Philadelphia) teams in Round 1, Game 1 at Lenovo Center.
Here’s a rundown of the seven teams, the pros and cons of the Hurricanes’ matchup with each, and who Carolina should most want to face — from the best first-round fit to the worst — when the puck drops on the playoffs.
Detroit Red Wings
Head-to-head this season: Hurricanes 2-0-1 advantage.
Overview: Carolina has a pair of 5-2 home wins sandwiching a 4-3 overtime loss in Detroit. Shayne Gostisbehere had seven points against his former team in three games, and Jackson Blake scored in each of the games. Alex DeBrincat had four points in the three games.
Pros of playing the Red Wings: The Wings have the third-worst five-on-five shooting percentage in the league, and their underlying numbers are middle of the road. Carolina hammered Detroit in the three meetings, taking more than 67 percent of the five-on-five shot attempts and outscoring the Wings 8-4 at full strength. Detroit has been mediocre on special teams.
Cons of playing the Red Wings: Moritz Seider is getting Norris Trophy buzz, and DeBrincat and Lucas Raymond are nice complements to Dylan Larkin. John Gibson is closing in on 30 wins in his first season in Motown, and Little Caesars Arena will be rocking when it finally hosts its first playoff games.
Verdict: Detroit is in the fight for its life down the stretch, so if the Red Wings get in, they’ll be battle-tested. The addition of Justin Faulk gives them some experience on the back end, but the blue line beyond Seider would be in for a rough time against the Hurricanes. Furthermore, Gibson has had a difficult March — though if he doesn’t improve, Detroit probably isn’t ending its postseason drought anyway.
Difficulty rating: 2 of 10
Pittsburgh Penguins
Head-to-head this season: Hurricanes 3-1-0 advantage
Overview: The teams split a pair of 5-1 games, and Carolina won both March meetings with overtime and shootout wins. Bryan Rust and Erik Karlsson have seven points each in the four meetings, while Ehlers has six points in the season series. Three of Mark Jankowski’s eight goals are against the Pens.
Pros of playing the Penguins: The Hurricanes have beaten the Penguins 10 consecutive times at Lenovo Center, a streak that started in 2019. Evgeni Malkin hasn’t scored anywhere against Carolina since 2020 and has been limited to two assists in his last 15 games. Goaltending is a giant question mark for the Pens and may cost them a playoff spot altogether.
Cons of playing the Penguins: No one expected Pittsburgh to be in the race for a playoff spot, but here we are. Karlsson has had a bounce-back season, and Sidney Crosby, if healthy, is still dangerous. The Penguins’ special teams are very good, and the team has done a nice job of filling out the bottom of its lineup with capable depth players who can contribute.
Verdict: It will be a victory for the Penguins if they can reach the postseason, but their stay shouldn’t be long. I would never fully count out Crosby, but Jordan Staal’s ability to neutralize Malkin and Carolina’s depth feel like way too much. Toss in the goaltending uncertainty and this feels like a nice way for the Hurricanes to ease into the playoffs.
Difficulty rating: 2 of 10
Boston Bruins
Head-to-head this season: 1-1-0; series finale April 7 in Raleigh
Overview: The Hurricanes played two low-scoring games in Boston over 17 days in November, a 3-1 win and 2-1 loss. The top producers for both teams did little in both games: Carolina’s Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis and Andrei Svechnikov, and Boston’s David Pastrnak and Morgan Geekie were all held off the scoresheet. Goaltender Jeremy Swayman started both games for the Bruins, stopping 57 of 61 shots in earning a split.
Pros of playing the Bruins: Boston’s underlying numbers are not great, and while Charlie McAvoy is an elite defenseman, injuries have slowed Hampus Lindholm and the rest of the defense is mediocre at best. The Bruins are near the bottom of the league in shots allowed and on the penalty kill — which is not great since they’ve taken the second-most penalties in the league.
Cons of playing the Bruins: There’s scoring balance up and down the lineup, Geekie is a breakout performer and Pastrnak is a superstar who can win games on his own. So can Swayman, who has had a bounce-back season and could get Vezina consideration. Boston’s power play is in the top 10, and the Bruins have the ability to drag teams into a dogfight with heavy players such as Nikita Zadorov and Tanner Jeannot.
Verdict: Pastrnak is going to get his, and Swayman is a threat. Still, Carolina would be heavily favored against the Bruins. Boston would need contributions throughout the lineup to knock off the Hurricanes, and Carolina doesn’t exactly struggle with depth. The Bruins could make it interesting, but the Hurricanes have a big edge.
Difficulty rating: 3 of 10
New York Islanders
Head-to-head this season: Hurricanes 1-0-0 advantage; games remaining April 4 in Raleigh and April 14 on Long Island
Overview: The teams have met only once so far, a 6-2 Carolina home rout in late October. The Hurricanes could very well have a say in whether the Islanders reach the postseason, with two more meetings to come. New York was eliminated by the Hurricanes in their last two postseason appearances, in 2023 and 2024.
Pros of playing the Islanders: When the Hurricanes get beat in the playoffs, the other team’s power play usually plays a big part. The Islanders have been dreadful on the PP. Carolina has also handled New York pretty easily in their three series in the past seven seasons, winning 12 of 15 games.
Cons of playing the Islanders: Two words: Ilya Sorokin. The Islanders goalie is arguably the best in the league, and the past (2-5-0 in the postseason vs. Carolina) won’t matter if the teams meet again. And then there’s Matthew Schaefer, who has turbocharged the Isles in his rookie season.
Verdict: No one will want to face Sorokin, but the Hurricanes have been too much for the Islanders in the past and likely would be again. New York’s top-end talent is intriguing, but the bottom half of the lineup is full of aging players with their best days in the past. Carolina is a possession monster, while the Isles are decidedly not.
Difficulty rating: 3 of 10
Columbus Blue Jackets
Head-to-head this season: 1-1-0; home-and-home games on March 31 and April 2 remaining
Overview: The teams have split their two games this season, with Carolina getting a 4-1 win at home in December before Columbus evened the series with a 5-1 win this month on home ice. Charlie Coyle had a four-point game in the Jackets’ win in Ohio. Andrei Svechnikov has three points in the first two games between the teams.
Pros of playing the Blue Jackets: Zach Werenski leads the team in scoring by nearly 20 points despite missing seven games this season, and the Hurricanes have four forwards with as many or more points than the Jackets’ top producer up front (Kirill Marchenko, 59). Columbus is in the bottom half of the league on the power play and penalty kill. The defense is top-heavy and the offense lacks punch.
Cons of playing the Blue Jackets: Midseason coaching savior Rick Bowness has Columbus as hot as any team since his hiring. Under the hood, the Blue Jackets have held their own on possession and scoring chances. Marchenko is a Hurricanes killer — nine goals in 12 career games against them — and Conor Garland and Mason Marchment have been nice midseason additions. Goaltender Jet Greaves has quietly put together a nice season.
Verdict: Having “meh” special teams isn’t usually a recipe for success, and Columbus’ top scorer on the power play, Dmitri Voronkov (seven goals), has fallen out of favor with Bowness. Werenski helps in that aspect, and Adam Fantilli has tantalizing skill that makes one believe he could become a superstar at any moment. But a lot would need to go right for the Jackets to topple Carolina.
Difficulty rating: 4 of 10
Ottawa Senators
Head-to-head this season: Hurricanes 2-0-0 advantage; series finale April 5 in Ottawa
Overview: The Hurricanes had 4-1 and 4-3 wins this season, with one more game on deck. Seth Jarvis totaled three goals and an assist, and Aho had a three-point night in the game in Raleigh. Jake Sanderson leads the Senators with three points against Carolina.
Pros of playing the Senators: Ottawa is banged up, especially on defense. That includes Thomas Chabot, who is out with a broken arm and seems unlikely for an opening-round series. The penalty kill is near the bottom of the league, and much of the team is still green when it comes to playoff experience. It’s anyone’s guess what kind of goaltending performance the Senators will get.
Cons of playing the Senators: The Senators are Carolina Lite. Their underlying numbers are fantastic, including in the two meetings with the Hurricanes. Brady Tkachuk is going to take a bite out of any team he faces, win or lose, and Tim Stutzle is one of the game’s most underrated players. Warren Foegele has been reborn since coming to Ottawa at the deadline, and Linus Ullmark, when he’s on, can steal games.
Verdict: The Senators tilt the ice in their favor most nights, but they need saves to win. Ullmark has been winning in March, but he’s still under a .900 save percentage for the month, as he was in four of the previous five months — and he played just once in January, when he wasn’t. He’s also won five of 16 games in the playoffs in his career. This wouldn’t be an easy series, but Ottawa’s question marks in net and Carolina’s depth feel like too much for an upset.
Difficulty rating: 4 of 10
Montreal Canadiens
Head-to-head this season: Canadiens 2-0-0 advantage; series finale Sunday in Raleigh
Overview: Montreal has 12 goals in two games against Carolina, picking up 7-5 and 5-2 wins. The Canadiens have nine players with multiple points through the first two games of the series, while Aho has five points and Nikolaj Ehlers has four. The Hurricanes get one more crack at the Habs on Sunday in Raleigh.
Pros of playing the Canadiens: The Canadiens are fun with a capital F, but the team is very young and who will play in goal is anyone’s guess. Aho has feasted on Montreal throughout his career. While the two Habs wins look lopsided, Carolina actually had the better of possession in the two games. Montreal’s PK is in the bottom quarter of the league.
Cons of playing the Canadiens: The Canadiens’ young guns might not care that they’ll be underdogs. Montreal is on the rise and is explosive, plus it boasts a good power play. Lane Hutson is a game-altering defenseman, and top goalie prospect Jacob Fowler has the talent to be special, and maybe soon.
Verdict: This wouldn’t be an alluring first-round matchup for the Hurricanes. Montreal has won both games this season, and the Canadiens have talent that can alter a game with one play. The Habs aren’t quite there yet as a legitimate Stanley Cup contender, but they’re not far off. Of the teams on this list, Montreal is maybe the most dangerous. Carolina would have the upper hand on paper, but games aren’t played on paper.
Difficulty rating: 7 of 10