Retribution Could Be in Order with Ducks and Maple Leafs

Welcome to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the slate of games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. This edition features an interconference matchup as the Toronto Maple Leafs visit the Anaheim Ducks. With Anaheim pushing toward a Pacific Division title and Toronto already looking ahead to the offseason, this game carries little impact on the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoff picture. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions as we continue tracking the 2025–26 season.

NHL Predictions: Toronto Maple Leafs vs Anaheim Ducks

2025–26 Season Series: Toronto leads 1–0

Time: 10:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)| 7:00 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT)

How to Watch – US TV: Victory+, KCOP-13 | Canada TV: SNO, TVAS

Location: Honda Center, Anaheim, California

Setting the Stage

Toronto enters at 31–30–13, while Anaheim sits at 41–28–4 in what has become a contrast in trajectory and identity. Importantly, the Ducks remain firmly in control of the Pacific Division race, while the Maple Leafs are vying for a top-five NHL Draft pick.

Credit Image: © Christopher Drost/SHIFT digital via ZUMA Press Wire

Meanwhile, Anaheim continues to find ways to win. Their recent victory over Calgary reinforced their ability to execute in high-leverage moments, even when the process is not dominant. However, their underlying numbers suggest they are not controlling games to the same degree as their record might indicate.

On the other side, Toronto’s position is more about ending things on a high note. They have hovered around .500 in recent games and continue to struggle defensively at five-on-five. However, their offensive talent keeps them competitive, particularly in games that open up.

This matchup presents a familiar tension. Anaheim drives play and dictates pace, while Toronto looks to capitalize on moments and efficiency. That dynamic will shape how this game unfolds.

However, there is an added layer to this matchup. Radko Gudas was recently suspended five games for a knee-on-knee hit that ended Auston Matthews’ season. That incident not only removes Toronto’s most dangerous offensive weapon, but also adds a level of physical and emotional tension to this game. Meanwhile, the Leafs must now generate offence without their primary driver, which places even greater pressure on players like John Tavares and William Nylander to carry the load. There may be even more pressure on the team to respond to the hit that took out their captain.

Toronto Maple Leafs Storyline

Toronto’s biggest challenge remains its defensive structure. The Maple Leafs rank near the bottom of the league in several five-on-five defensive categories, including expected goals against and shot suppression. As a result, they frequently rely on goaltending and opportunistic offence to stay in games.

Moreover, their forward group still provides legitimate scoring threats. Tavares continues to anchor the top six, while Nylander remains a primary driver of transition offence. Additionally, depth contributions from players like Matthew Knies and Max Domi have helped sustain offensive output.

However, the underlying issue persists. Toronto struggles to control possession and often spends extended time in its own zone. Against a Ducks team that generates consistent shot volume, that becomes a dangerous formula.

If Toronto can convert early chances and receive strong goaltending, they can stay within reach. If not, sustained pressure could tilt the game quickly.

Toronto goal!Scored by John Tavares with 08:03 remaining in the 3rd period.Toronto: 4New York: 2#NYRvsTOR #LeafsForever #NYR

— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-03-26T01:59:01.228584Z

Anaheim Ducks Storyline

Anaheim’s identity is built on territorial control and scoring from everywhere in the lineup. The Ducks rank among the league’s better teams in five-on-five shot share and expected goals, consistently driving play even if results do not always reflect that dominance.

Meanwhile, their forward group continues to produce across multiple lines. Cutter Gauthier remains a high-volume shooter, Leo Carlsson provides strong two-way presence, and Mikael Granlund has been a consistent offensive contributor. Additionally, John Carlson has stabilized puck movement from the back end and added another layer to their transition game.

However, Anaheim is not without flaws. Their finishing has occasionally lagged behind their chance generation, and defensive lapses still appear in key moments. As a result, games can remain closer than expected. They also struggle to score first, often resorting to chasing games. It hasn’t hurt the Ducks yet, but it’s a cause for concern heading into the tighter checking playoffs.

If Anaheim sustains its five-on-five pressure and limits defensive breakdowns, it should control the overall flow. If not, Toronto has the skill to capitalize on mistakes.

Anaheim goal!Scored by Cutter Gauthier with 10:19 remaining in the 3rd period.Assisted by Jeffrey Viel and John Carlson.Edmonton: 3Anaheim: 2#ANAvsEDM #LetsGoOilers #FlyTogether

— NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social) 2026-03-28T21:57:04.997906Z

The Model

The blended model presents a slightly more nuanced picture than the market. The in-house model incorporates five-on-five metrics, special teams, projected goaltending, and recent form.

Internally, Anaheim lands in the low 60 percent range. MoneyPuck aligns closely, projecting the Ducks at 62 percent. However, HockeyStats provides a more neutral view, effectively treating this as a 50–50 game with a projected goal split around 3.3 to 3.3.

After removing vig from the market line near -190, fair odds settle closer to the -170 range. That suggests Anaheim is correctly favoured, but potentially slightly overpriced.

Overall, the edge leans toward Anaheim, though not overwhelmingly.

NHL Predictions

This game ultimately comes down to process versus volatility. Anaheim consistently drives play and generates sustained offensive pressure, while Toronto relies more heavily on finishing and situational execution.

Meanwhile, the matchup strongly favours Anaheim’s offensive profile. Toronto’s defensive metrics indicate vulnerability, particularly against teams that can maintain extended offensive zone time. That aligns directly with Anaheim’s strengths.

However, Toronto’s offensive talent introduces variance. If the Leafs convert efficiently and receive strong goaltending, they can keep this game close.

Given the underlying matchup, home ice, and model alignment, the edge tilts toward Anaheim in a competitive but controlled contest.

Prediction: Ducks win 4–3 (Model Probability: ~60–62%)

2025–26 Season Prediction Record: 16–14

Prop Bets of the Night

This game environment sets up well for Anaheim’s volume shooters. First, Cutter Gauthier over 3.5 shots (-125) aligns with both usage and matchup context. Toronto allows significant shot volume at five-on-five, and Gauthier remains one of Anaheim’s most consistent shooters.

Meanwhile, John Carlson to record a point (-130) offers strong value. His role on the power play and involvement in transition continues to generate consistent offensive opportunities, particularly against a defensive structure that struggles to contain sustained pressure.

For a slightly more aggressive angle, Beckett Sennecke anytime goal (+280) presents an intriguing option. His elevated role and Toronto’s depth defensive issues create a path for secondary scoring to make an impact.

Together, these plays reflect a game script where Anaheim controls possession and generates repeated offensive looks.

2025–26 Season Betting Record: 36–27 (+11.04 units)

Projected lineups and starting goaltenders are based on available information at the time of writing. Please check official team sources prior to placing any wagers.

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Main Photo: John E. Sokolowski-Imagn Images