NHL Betting Preview: Canadiens vs Lightning
The Montreal Canadiens go up against the Tampa Bay Lightning at Benchmark International Arena, with face-off scheduled for 16:00 on Tuesday, March 31.
Lightning Stand Out as a Great Bet
There is merit in backing the Lightning on the 3-Way Moneyline, with our prediction being that the home team will beat the Canadiens in 60 minutes. Especially as odds of -108 are available about this happening.
Lightning Have Won 7 of Previous 10 H2H Encounters
Montreal Canadiens won their previous game 3-1. This road victory at Lenovo Center against Carolina Hurricanes was their fifth on the spin. Nick Suzuki registered two goals, with Cole Caufield scoring one. Goalie Jakub Dobes was red hot in the net, stopping 34 shots (.971).
Tampa Bay Lightning have enjoyed back-to-back wins, most recently beating Nashville Predators 3-2. It was a home success at Benchmark International Arena. Jake Guentzel had 3 points, featuring 1 goal and 2 assists. Goalie Jonas Johansson made 29 saves (.935).
Head-to-Head Statistics
The Lightning triumphed 5-4 when they last played the Habs. This head-to-head was played at Benchmark International Arena. The Lightning have three straight victories against the Habs. They have won 7 of the 10 previous head-to-head meetings.
Starting Goalies
Jakub Dobes (Expected)
Season
W-L-OTL:
GAA:
SV%:
SO:
24/25
25-8-4
2.8
.900
0
Andrei Vasilevskiy (Expected)
Season
W-L-OTL:
GAA:
SV%:
SO:
24/25
35-12-4
2.3
.911
2
23/24
30-20-2
2.9
.900
2
Montreal Canadiens – Last 10 Games
7 wins and 3 losses, averaging 3.3 goals from 26.9 shots on goal, with a 15.8% powerplay efficiency. The Habs have given up 2.3 goals from 29.0 shots, averaging 3.2 penalties with a penalty-killing efficiency of 81.3%.
Nick Suzuki is the top points scorer with 17 points, 5 goals and 12 assists, with Cole Caufield racking up 15 points, 9 goals and 6 assists, in the past 10 games. Goalie Jakub Dobes have a 1.83 goal against average with a .939 save percentage.
Tampa Bay Lightning – Last 10 Games
The Lightning have 7 wins, 1 loss and 2 overtime losses, averaging 4.2 goals from 28.1 shots on goal, with a 18.0% powerplay efficiency. They have been conceding 2.6 goals from 25.8 shots, averaging 3.7 penalties per game with a penalty-killing efficiency of 94.6%.
The top points scorer is Nikita Kucherov with 17 points, 6 goals and 11 assists, while Brandon Hagel is next best after having 14 points, 5 goals and 9 assists. Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy have a 2.00 GAA with a .918 SV%, including one shutout.
Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Prediction & Picks
The Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning betting tips feature sharp analysis across major markets, including a key match prediction, correct score guidance and a ready-made bet builder.
Game Prediction
For this NHL clash, our pick is Tampa Bay Lightning to win in regulation time against inferior opposition and we think that the -108 represents an attractive bet on the 60-minute line.
The NHL experts at Sportsgambler.com start by analyzing recent form and staying on top of injury news before making any hockey predictions. From there, we interpret the story the stats are telling to help shape our picks.
Key Canadiens vs Lightning stats:
Lightning have won 15 of their last 20 games at home.Lightning have won 7 of their last 10 games.Lightning have won 2 consecutive games.Lightning have won the last 3 games between these teams.Lightning 3-Way Moneyline Probability
Looking at the latest betting odds, there’s a 51.8% likelihood of our pick delivering a return. Our experts think there’s a stronger chance of success and calculate the probability to be 55-60%. This is why we regard this as a value bet.
Looking for Bigger Odds?
If you can correctly predict that Tampa Bay will win along with the number of goals, then you are able to combine the two picks by going down the Match Winner & Total Goals route.
Before you back your picks, see how far a bonus can take you — our guide highlights the top betting offers live now.
Our Game Prediction
Lightning 3-Way Moneyline @ -108
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Published 20:56, 30 March 2026
Montreal Canadiens vs Tampa Bay Lightning Odds
The odds and lines below are updated regularly and may differ from the prices shown in our picks, which are captured at the time of publication.
Books Expecting a Lightning Victory
The sportsbooks’ betting odds have Tampa Bay Lightning as -175 favorites for this game, implying that they are 64% likely to win. For those wanting to back Montreal Canadiens, you will find +146 about the underdogs.
There is a puck line of 1.5 and total goals has a line of 6.5. The beauty of Totals is that you only have to choose from one of two options. If you fancy Over 6.5, this outcome can be backed at -105.
You can find a huge selection of team props and game lines for every National Hockey League matchup, with the top betting apps creating many different options. Check out the in-game and pre-game selections before placing your wagers.
Live market odds and lines updated regularly. All odds subject to change. T&Cs apply. 18+ (or legal age) | Gamble Responsibly.
Team Stats
Latest regular season and playoff games stats.
Montreal Canadiens Stats
Tampa Bay Lightning Stats
7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 games on the road
7 wins and 3 defeats in the last 10 games
6 wins and 4 defeats in the last 10 home games
+1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games
+1.5 Betting Line on the Road: Have covered the +1.5 puck line in 8 of the last 10 games on the road
-1.5 Betting Line: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 6 of the last 10 games
-1.5 Betting Line at Home: Have covered the -1.5 puck line in 5 of the last 10 home games
Game Totals: An average of 5.60 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals on the Road: An average of 6.70 goals in the previous 10 games on the road
Over 6.5: Covered in 3 of the previous 10 games
Over 6.5 on the Road: Covered in 4 of the previous 10 games on the road
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 3.30 goals and allowed 2.30 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals on the Road: Have scored an average of 3.70 pts and allowed 3.00 goals in the last 10 games on the road
Game Totals: An average of 6.80 goals in the previous 10 games
Game Totals at Home: An average of 6.60 goals in the previous 10 home games
Over 6.5: Covered in 6 of the previous 10 games
Over 6.5 at Home: Covered in 5 of the previous 10 home games
Team Totals: Have scored an average of 4.20 goals and allowed 2.60 goals in the last 10 games
Team Totals at Home: Have scored an average of 3.60 goals and allowed 3.00 goals in the last 10 home games
Last 10 Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.6
Shots: 26.9
Goals Shorthanded: 0
Penalties: 3.2
Empty Net Goals: 0.1
Penalty Minutes: 8.2
Blocks: 11.6
Faceoff Wins : 28.4
Hits: 23.5
Giveaways: 16
Takeaways: 4.4
Last 10 Games on the Road
Goals Powerplay: 0.9
Shots: 27.1
Goals Shorthanded: 0.1
Penalties: 3.7
Empty Net Goals: 0.2
Penalty Minutes: 7.4
Blocks: 11.4
Faceoff Wins : 30.3
Hits: 22.7
Giveaways: 15.2
Takeaways: 4.5
Last 10 Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.7
Shots: 28.1
Goals Shorthanded: 0.2
Penalties: 3.7
Empty Net Goals: 0.5
Penalty Minutes: 10.3
Blocks: 17.1
Faceoff Wins : 26.2
Hits: 18.6
Giveaways: 15.3
Takeaways: 4
Last 10 Home Games
Goals Powerplay: 0.6
Shots: 28.1
Goals Shorthanded: 0
Penalties: 5.9
Empty Net Goals: 0.3
Penalty Minutes: 20.8
Blocks: 16.4
Faceoff Wins : 27.2
Hits: 23.4
Giveaways: 13.4
Takeaways: 3.5
Starting Lineups
Both teams’ confirmed lineups will be published ahead of face-off. There is also the chance to look at the lineups from the previous 10 games.
Expert Analysis by Robert Carter
NHL Analyst
About the Analyst
Our ice hockey previews are produced by a specialised team of analysts, former odds compilers and sports journalists. Picks are research-driven and reviewed for accuracy and editorial consistency under the oversight of our hockey panel and Editor-in-Chief.
NHL Predictions Methodology
Our NHL analysis combines the latest team news, injury reports and line changes with recent form and market movement. We factor in situational analysis like home ice advantage and schedule spots. Metrics such as Corsi, Fenwick, Expected Goals (xG) and PDO are used to evaluate puck possession, shot quality, goaltending performance and special teams efficiency beyond the traditional box score.
Full Methodology & Data Sources
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Transparency & Safety
This preview was last updated on Mar 30, 20:56 to reflect the latest team news, injury reports, confirmed lines and pairings, starting goaltenders, lineup changes, schedule context, key performance metrics and odds movement.
All analysis is produced by professional analysts and reviewed by our Ice Hockey Editorial Betting Panel for accuracy and consistency.
Historical performance for our game predictions is tracked and updated regularly for transparency.
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