Welcome back to NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey break down the action with in-depth analysis. We look at key matchups, storylines, and stats, then make predictions based on how things might play out. For this edition, we turn our attention to the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Montreal Canadiens. Don’t forget to check out more NHL Predictions as the series rolls on through the 2025–26 season.

NHL Predictions with Canadiens and Lightning

Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)

How to watch: The Spot, ESPN+, TSN2, RDS

Location: Benchmark Arena, Tampa, FL

2025–26 Season Series: Tampa Bay 2, Montreal 0

Credit Image: © Dirk Shadd/Tampa Bay Times via ZUMA Press Wire

Tampa’s offence is clicking at the right time. Tied with the Buffalo Sabres at the top of the Atlantic Division with 98 points and riding a two-game winning streak, the Bolts (46-21-6 ) return home riding momentum. The Montreal Canadiens (42-21-10, 3rd in the Atlantic Division) come in as a younger, faster group still figuring out consistency, but never lacking energy or unpredictability. Tampa thrives on structure and star power; Montreal thrives on speed and “let’s see what happens.” Naturally, that’s a recipe for chaos.

Tampa Bay Lightning Outlook

Nikita Kucherov (121 points, 40 goals, 81 assists) continues to operate like a human cheat code, piling up points and dictating tempo. Jake Guentzel (85 points, 35 goals, 45 assists)  provides depth scoring that keeps defences from keying in on Nikita. In net, Andrei Vasilevskiy remains the ultimate eraser, capable of turning defensive lapses into harmless highlights. The Lightning recent success has come from balanced play, but defensive lapses still creep in at times. Against a speedy Montreal lineup, those breakdowns can turn into odd-man rushes in a hurry.

Keys to Victory – Tampa Bay

NHL Predictions thinks the Tampa Bay Lightning’s biggest enemy is overcomplication. Clean zone exits, disciplined play, and limiting turnovers will go a long way. The power play sits at 22.5%, 11th in the league, helping to turn stupid mistakes into sweet goals. Montreal feeds off transition chances, so forcing them to play in the defensive zone is key. Stay out of the box. The Canadiens power play can be streaky, but giving young talent extra space is rarely a great idea. With their penalty kill at a 82.3%, third in the league, their defence can spotlight just as well as their offence most nights. And as always, keeping Vasilevskiy’s sightlines clear (no free screens, no chaos in the crease, no unnecessary adventures) will keep the winning streak alive.

Montreal Canadiens Outlook

The Montreal Canadiens are a team on the rise, powered by youth and speed. Nick Suzuki (91 points, 26 goals, 65 assists) leads with poise, while Cole Caufield remains a constant scoring threat anytime he touches the puck. Add in emerging talent like Lane Hutson, and Montreal suddenly has a lineup that can surprise teams that take them lightly. They score 3.51 goals per game, and their 24.5% power-play percentage is fifth in the league. Defensively, they’re still a work in progress. Breakdowns happen (the penalty kill% is 76.5%, 26th in the league), and goaltending can swing from stellar to “let’s not talk about it” depending on the night. On the road, that inconsistency becomes even more pronounced.

Keys to Victory – Montreal

NHL Predictions says Montreal’s path is simple: speed, pressure, repeat. Push the pace, force Tampa’s defence into quick decisions, and capitalize on mistakes. Crash the net and test Vasilevskiy early. Even elite goalies can be beaten with traffic and second chances. And above all, don’t let Tampa set up comfortably on the power play, because that’s how games get out of hand quickly.

NHL Predictions: Who Takes the W?

This matchup feels like a clash of styles; Tampa’s polished, star-driven execution versus Montreal’s youthful, high-tempo unpredictability.

Prediction: Lightning 5, Canadiens 3

Prop Bets of the Night

Over 6.0 Total Goals (-110): Both teams can score, and neither is allergic to defensive chaos.

Kucherov Anytime Point (-260): Betting against him right now feels irresponsible.

Final Thoughts

NHL Predictions sees this as a game that could swing between structured dominance and wide-open chaos. Tampa wants to assert itself as a true contender, while Montreal is eager to prove its rebuild is ahead of schedule.

Main Photo: David Kirouac-Imagn Images

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