The Winnipeg Jets are within a point of a playoff position.
Winnipeg’s win against the Chicago Blackhawks brings the Jets within a point of the Nashville Predators for the second wild-card spot in the Western Conference. This is a team that was in last place as recently as Jan. 8 and went on a tear, just to return from the Olympics 11 points back of a wild-card spot.
It is to the Jets players’ immense credit that they’ve forced a playoff position back into the conversation at all. Depending on which game you watch in any given week, the Jets might play well but lose, play poorly but win or play with such control it’s obvious they’re still in the playoff race. Sometimes, as during Tuesday night’s 4-3 overtime win against Chicago, the hapless and dominant versions of the Jets make appearances in the very same game.
But the team’s effort has never faltered.
Its star players continue to make huge plays, whether Josh Morrissey’s game-changing backhand drive to the net that kick-started Winnipeg’s offence after a poor start Tuesday or Kyle Connor’s goal to end it in OT.
So what would it take for the Jets to complete the comeback, clawing all of the way back into playoff position?
Let’s study each team the Jets are up against, sorting through their schedules and making educated guesses as to the outcome of each game. We’ll consider strength of opponent and current performance level in an attempt to take a more subjective, nuanced look at Winnipeg’s road to the playoffs. We’ll also look at Dom Luszczyszyn’s points projections independently of my manual, game-by-game analysis, to come up with Winnipeg’s ultimate playoff road map.
Western Conference wild-card race
The easiest answer to the problem at hand is for Winnipeg to win out, but that’s the hardest result to achieve. The Jets technically have two teams to catch, as the Los Angeles Kings have achieved their 76 points in one fewer game, and the Jets remain 1 point back of Nashville for the wild card spot.
Here’s a look at the standings as they sit today:
TeamPTSGRPROJ. PTSL10
77
8
84.2
5-4-1
76
9
88.2
3-3-4
76
8
85.7
6-2-2
75
9
83.4
3-5-2
75
10
85.1
4-5-1
73
9
82.5
6-2-2
Now let’s consider how the table changes when you sort by projected points. Luszczyszyn’s model accounts for strength of rosters and strength of schedule and likes Winnipeg’s odds of winning enough games to stay competitive.
There’s just one mushy, middling, enormous problem with the projected results:
TeamPTSGRPROJ. PTSL10
76
9
88.2
3-3-4
76
8
85.7
5-3-2
75
10
85.1
4-5-1
77
8
84.2
5-4-1
75
9
83.9
3-5-2
73
9
82.5
6-2-2
Winnipeg is projected to get as close to the playoffs as possible without making it — while dropping in draft position — meaning Cole Perfetti (No. 10, 2020) would still be its highest pick since the lottery led to Patrik Laine at No. 2 in 2016. That outcome would make Winnipeg the textbook definition of “mushy middle.”
But what about the Jets’ path to 89 points, surpassing the Kings’ projection? What if the Kings don’t get hot at all, despite their projected strength?
There is some good news. Winnipeg has a better record in its last 10 games than every team it is chasing, for one, while the playoff cut line in the West could fall to 90 points (or fewer) for the first time since 2018-19. There are a lot of seasons in which a team with Winnipeg’s record would already be out of the race, but the Jets are every bit a contender in the Western Conference turtle derby wild-card chase.
Nashville: 77 points, 8 games remaining
The Nashville Predators hold the second wild-card spot but have lost three straight games. Their schedule is difficult from a travel perspective — Nashville is in the midst of a five-game road trip that started in Florida and has taken it to California on the opposite coast — but the Predators do have control over their playoff path. They play five straight road games, including two against the Kings and one each against the Sharks and Ducks, before closing their road trip against Utah.
DATEGAMEPICKPTS
April 2
at Kings
W
2
April 4
at Sharks
W
2
April 6
at Kings
L
0
April 7
at Ducks
L
0
April 9
at Mammoth
OTL
1
April 11
vs. Wild
L
0
April 13
vs. Sharks
W
2
April 16
vs. Ducks
L
0
Projected record down the stretch (my picks): 3-4-1
Final point total (my picks): 84 points
Luszczyszyn projections point total: 84.2 points
Los Angeles: 76 points, 9 games remaining
Los Angeles is a team with plenty of roster quality, especially with Artemi Panarin skating alongside Anze Kopitar on the top line and Quinton Byfield on a hot streak that includes 9 points in his last seven games. Its schedule includes a pair of back-to-backs and three games against teams currently in playoff position. I like the Kings to beat Nashville at least once and to clean up against Vancouver and Calgary, and I’ve projected a strong 6-2-1 finish as a result, despite the team’s .521 points percentage to date.
DATEGAMEPICKPTS
April 1
vs. Blues
OTL
1
April 2
vs. Predators
L
0
April 4
vs. Maple Leafs
W
2
April 6
vs. Predators
W
2
April 9
vs. Canucks
W
2
April 11
vs. Oilers
L
0
April 13
at Kraken
W
2
April 14
at Canucks
W
2
April 16
at Flames
W
2
Projected record down the stretch (my picks): 6-2-1
Final point total (my picks): 89 points
Luszczyszyn projections point total: 88.2 points
Seattle: 75 points, 9 games remaining
Seattle isn’t controlling the flow of play of late, nor does it have the top-end roster quality to inspire belief in an 8-1-0 type of run to end the season. I’ve given Seattle a split with the Golden Knights but it might be generous; the Kraken have the worst record over their past 10 games of any of the teams discussed in this piece.
DATEGAMEPICKPTS
April 2
vs. Mammoth
L
0
April 4
vs. Blackhawks
W
2
April 6
at Jets
L
0
April 7
at Wild
L
0
April 9
vs. Golden Knights
W
2
April 11
vs. Flames
W
2
April 13
vs. Kings
OTL
1
April 15
at Golden Knights
L
0
April 16
at Avalanche
L
0
Projected record down the stretch (my picks): 3-5-1
Final point total (my picks): 82 points
Luszczyszyn projections point total: 83.9 points
San Jose: 75 points, 10 games remaining
San Jose’s biggest strength in this race is one more game remaining than Los Angeles, Seattle or St. Louis has — plus two more games left compared with Winnipeg or Nashville. There’s time to get hot. The Sharks have also posted some of their best underlying numbers of the season since the Olympics. My analysis of each team’s remaining schedule favours the Kings, but I’m not closing the door on San Jose’s top-end talent, Macklin Celebrini’s superstar status or the extra game San Jose has left to play.
DATEGAMEPICKPTS
April 1
vs. Ducks
W
2
April 2
vs. Maple Leafs
W
2
April 4
vs. Predators
L
0
April 6
vs. Blackhawks
W
2
April 8
vs. Oilers
OTL
1
April 9
at Ducks
L
0
April 11
vs. Canucks
W
2
April 13
at Predators
L
0
April 15
at Blackhawks
W
2
April 16
at Jets
L
0
Projected record down the stretch (my picks): 5-4-1
Final point total (my picks): 86 points
Luszczyszyn projections point total: 85.1 points
St. Louis: 73 points, 9 games remaining
Jeremy Rutherford did a phenomenal analysis of the Blues’ remaining schedule, looking for a path by which St. Louis could make a shocking end-of-season surge. I think the Blues are coming from too far back and think their schedule is a tough one, with six of their nine games to come against playoff-bound opponents. Even giving them what I expect the comments section to view as a controversial win against Winnipeg, I don’t like the Blues’ odds at all.
DATEGAMEPICKPTS
April 1
at Kings
W
2
April 3
at Ducks
W
2
April 5
at Avalanche
L
0
April 7
vs. Avalanche
L
0
April 9
vs. Jets
W
2
April 11
at Blackhawks
W
2
April 13
vs. Wild
OTL
1
April 14
vs. Penguins
L
0
April 16
at Mammoth
L
0
Projected record down the stretch (my picks): 4-4-1
Final point total (my picks): 82 points
Luszczyszyn projections point total: 82.5 points
Winnipeg: 76 points, 8 games remaining
Winnipeg plays five of its final eight games on the road, where it’s gone just 14-16-6 — including Tuesday’s overtime win in Chicago. It avoids most of the top teams in the West, facing Dallas in a tough road matchup and then otherwise playing middling competition. The other projected playoff teams on the docket are Rick Bowness’ Blue Jackets, a struggling Golden Knights team (with John Tortorella now at the helm) and the Utah Mammoth. There’s room for Winnipeg to get hot, and I’ve given it points against everybody but Vegas and Dallas to show belief in Winnipeg’s top-end talent delivering down the stretch.
Morrissey, Connor, Mark Scheifele and Connor Hellebuyck are consistent threats to steal games. Perfetti has started to score, too, while Gabriel Vilardi has emerged as an offensive contributor on or off the top line. The Jets are even getting offence from their bottom six.
But is it enough?
DATEGAMEPICKPTS
April 2
at Stars
L
0
April 4
at Blue Jackets
W
2
April 6
vs. Kraken
W
2
April 9
at Blues
OTL
1
April 11
vs. Flyers
W
2
April 13
at Golden Knights
L
0
April 14
at Mammoth
W
2
April 16
vs. Sharks
W
2
Projected record down the stretch (my picks): 5-2-1
Final point total (my picks): 87 points
Luszczyszyn projections point total: 85.7 points
Conclusion
Paul Maurice used to say that coaches make plans and the hockey gods laugh.
In the end, I think the 7 points Winnipeg gave away late in games it led against Minnesota, Toronto, Vegas, and Edmonton — and the Jets’ 12 shootout and overtime losses — are enough to sink an otherwise plausible wild-card bid. Even a 5-2-1 record in the Jets’ eight remaining games would leave them just short at season’s end.
Here is a look at the NHL’s final standings if I were to nail every game outcome and points projection in the piece. I still can’t shake the idea that it’s the Kings who have the best shot at making it, with Winnipeg and San Jose close behind.
But let’s say the Kings stumble for even a moment. There’s a chance that Winnipeg’s season is on the line right through its season-ending game against the Sharks on April 16. You wouldn’t like the Jets’ odds against Colorado, nor would you love their position in the 2026 entry draft, but these Jets seem determined to keep you guessing right until the final buzzer.