In 2023-24, the Detroit Red Wings had the 91 points needed to qualify for the NHL playoffs as an Eastern Conference wildcard team. However, they lost the final playoff spot to the Washington Capitals because of a tiebreaker.

That season, it felt as if the Red Wings were victims of bad luck. If they don’t make the playoff pool this season, it feels as if they only have themselves to blame.

At one point this season, the Red Wings boasted an 80% probability of earning a playoff. After losing 5-1 to the Penguins Tuesday night, the Red Wings have a 32.2% probability.

There are multiple reasons why the Red Wings’ quest to end their nine-year playoff drought is unraveling. Bob Duff quotes coach Todd McLellan today as saying: “In some situations, it’s definitely competitiveness and the will and the drive to do it longer and harder than maybe the opposition. Some of its technique and skill, too. It’s a combination of both. But the will and the drive is something we could use a little bit more of right now, and we’re going to ask them for it.”

Here’s the hard numbers explanation for how they have lost their grip on a playoff spot: They are 7-11-3 in their last 21 games. In that span, the Red Wings have only scored 2.33 goals per game. They have only scored four or more goals in three of those 21 games. They have scored two or fewer in 12 of those games (57.1%).

Despite their struggles, the Red Wings still have a shot of qualifying. But it probably requires them to win their next two games against Philadelphia and the New York Rangers.

Red Wings In Case You Missed It

The Red Wings have been waiting for goalie prospect Trey Augustine. They signed him yesterday. He will play in Grand Rapids the rest of the season.

Coach Todd McLellan’s Detroit group couldn’t match the Penguins’ drive in a 5-1 loss.

Red Wings Extra

Detroit goalie Rudy Guimond is 3-0 with a 0.96 GAA and .952 save percentage for the Moncton Wildcats in their first three QMJHL playoff games. . . Prospect Carter Bear has five assists and no goals in his first three Western Hockey League playoff games for the Everett Silvertips. . . Detroit second-round Max Plante has been telling people he expects to come back to Minnesota-Duluth next year to play with his younger and older brother.

Hockey Now Digest

Boston: Bruins keep winning big games. Victor Arvidsson contributes hat trick in win against Dallas. Boston Bruins.

Florida: Comcast pulled the plug on the Panthers mid-game. Florida Panthers.

Pittsburgh: Dan Kingerski writes that you can feel the momentum the Penguins have for qualifying for the playoffs. It’s the kind of momentum the Red Wings haven’t yet found. Pittsburgh Penguins.