The Flyers Magic Number is 7; How Can it Get Lower?

After Tuesday night’s 5-1 win against the New Jersey Devils, the Philadelphia Flyers’ magic number is officially 7 points. With four games remaining, 7 points will get the Flyers into the playoffs as the No. 3 seed in the Metropolitan Division.

After a week in which the Flyers got just about every ideal outcome from the out-of-town scoreboard, they find themselves controlling their own destiny. All they can do is win games and ensure their own playoff fate.

While the Flyers left New Jersey with the win, it was the only favorable outcome they found. Here is a look at the updated standings as of Wednesday morning.

The Devils were eliminated on Tuesday after losing to the Flyers and the Senators’ win. That shrinks the field to six teams fighting for one Wild Card spot, and four of those six teams are eligible for the Metro 3rd seed.

Despite the win, the Blue Jackets’ shootout win keeps the Flyers’ lead uncomfortable at just two points. That’s why, with 8 points still on the table, the Flyers’ magic number is 7.

Max points each team can finish with

Every team in the race has 4 games remaining on its schedule, aside from the Bruins, who have 3. That puts 8 points on the table for each team, except Boston.

There are still games to be played between one another. Not every team can finish with the maximum number of points. But for the sake of the story, here is the maximum number of points each team can finish with.

Flyers – 100 pts (M3)
Bruins – 102 pts (WC1)
Senators – 100 pts (WC2)
– elimination line –
Blue Jackets – 98 pts
Red Wings – 97 pts
Islanders – 97 pts
Capitals – 95 pts

As things currently stand, the Flyers don’t have the tiebreaker over anyone. So, they simply need to have more points than the next team. The Blue Jackets have 27 regulation wins, so compared to the Flyers’ 25, they’d have the tiebreaker, but it’s not final yet.

The Islanders (28 RW) and Red Wings (29 RW) each have catchable numbers. However, if the Flyers tie that total, they’ll likely have hit the points threshold regardless.

How can the Flyers magic number be lowered?

The Flyers have a magic number, but 7 points in 4 games to clinch is by no means a comfortable task. That means the Flyers have to earn points in each of their remaining games, and only one can be an overtime loss.

For fans and the team, that’s a little too close for comfort. That would mean the Flyers have to finish the season on a 7-game win streak, something they have not done since the 2019-20 season. Or, they’d have to find a way to not lose in regulation again.

So, how can things become more comfortable?

The best-case scenario could be clinching the 3rd seed in the Metro as early as Saturday. That remains a possibility. Here’s how it could happen after the next two games:

Flyers earn 4 pts (96 pts with 2 games to go)

Islanders held to 2 pts (91 pts with 2 games to go)

Blue Jackets held to 1 pt (91 pts with 2 games to go)

Now, the Flyers have not won 4 straight in over 2 years. Entering Thursday’s game on a 3-game winning streak, it makes it hard to believe they can pull off 5 in a row, and that the cards fall in their favor once again. So, let’s look at some other scenarios and how the Flyers can get in.

If the Flyers get 4 points over the next 3 games (96 with a game to go), here is what needs to go their way to clinch the 3rd seed before the season finale.

Flyers pick up 4 pts over next 3 games (96 pts with 1 game to go)

Islanders held to 4 or less pts over next 3 games (93 pts with 1 game to go)

Blue Jackets held to 3 or less pts over next 3 games (93 pts with 1 game to go)

If the Flyers don’t earn at least 4 points in the next 3 games, or the Blue Jackets do, the Metro will go down to the final game of the season.

Scenarios in the Metropolitan based on record for the rest of the season

If the Flyers go 3-1-0 (98)

Blue Jackets held to 7 pts, don’t win out, end at 97 pts

Islanders eliminated

Capitals eliminated

In the event the Flyers go 2-1-1 (97)

Blue Jackets held to 6 pts (3-1-0) or (2-0-2) over next 4 games, end at 96 pts

Islanders held to 7 pts (3-0-1), don’t win out, end at 96 pts

Capitals eliminated

If the Flyers go 2-2-0 or 2-0-2 (96)

Blue Jackets held to 5 pts (2-1-1) or (1-0-3) over next 4 games, end at 95 pts

Islanders held to 6 pts (3-1-0) or (2-0-2) over the next 4 games, and at 95 pts

Capitals eliminated

In the event the Flyers go 1-2-1 (95)

Blue Jackets held to 4 pts (2-2-0) or (1-1-2) over next 4 games, end at 94 pts

Islanders held to 5 pts (2-1-1) or (1-0-3) over next 4 games, end at 94 pts

Capitals held to 7 pts, don’t win out

If the Flyers go 1-3-0 or 0-2-2 (94)

Blue Jackets held to 3 pts (1-2-1) or (0-1-3) over next 4 games, end at 93 pts

Islanders held to 4 pts (2-2-0) or (1-1-2) over next 4 games, end at 93 pts

Capitals held to 6 pts (3-1-0) or (2-0-2) over the next 4 games, and at 93 pts

What if the Flyers go 0-3-1 (93)

Blue Jackets held to 2 pts (1-3-0) or (0-2-2) over next 4 games, end at 92 pts

Islanders held to 3 pts (1-2-1) or (0-3-1) over next 4 games, end at 92 pts

Capitals held to 5 pts (2-1-1) or (1-0-3) over next 4 games, end at 92 pts

Flyers don’t earn another point (92)

Blue Jackets held to 1 pt (0-3-1) over next 4 games, end at 91 pts

Islanders held to 2 pts (1-3-0) or (0-2-2) over next 4 games, end at 91 pts

Capitals held to 4 pts (2-2-0) or (1-1-2) over next 4 games, end at 91 pts

What about the Flyers’ Wild Card chances?

While sights are set on the Metropolitan spot, and it is the likely destination if the Flyers make the playoffs, it should not discard the Wild Card as a possible outcome.

The scenarios for that are simple. It is the same 4-team race, except you add the Red Wings and Senators into the mix.

If you want to compare Philly’s chances to those of Detroit, well, the Islanders and Red Wings are tied at 89 points. So, if you sub the Red Wings for the Islanders in the above scenarios, that’s how the Flyers could beat out the Red Wings for a Wild Card spot.

The Senators’ scenario is simple for the Flyers. Both teams are currently tied at 92 points. If Philly ends the final 4-game stretch with more points than Ottawa, they are above them in the standings.

Remaining schedule

Flyers (92) remaining schedule

4/9 @ Red Wings (89) – 7:00 pm EST
4/11 @ Jets (80) – 7:00 pm EST
4/13 vs. Hurricanes (106) – 7:00 pm EST
4/14 vs. Canadiens (102) – 7:00 pm EST

Blue Jackets (90) remaining schedule

4/9 @ Sabres (102) – 7:00 pm EST
4/11 @ Canadiens (102) – 7:00 pm EST
4/12 vs. Bruins (96) – 6:00 pm EST
4/14 vs. Capitals (87) – 7:00 pm EST

Islanders (89) remaining schedule

4/9 vs. Maple Leafs (78) – 6:45 pm EST
4/11 vs. Senators (90) – 1:00 pm EST
4/12 vs. Canadiens (102) – 6:00 pm EST
4/14 vs. Hurricanes (106) – 7:00 pm EST

Capitals (87) remaining schedule

4/8 @ Maple Leafs (78) – 7:30 pm EST
4/11 @ Penguins (96) – 3:00 pm EST
4/12 vs. Penguins (96) – 3:00 pm EST
4/14 @ Blue Jackets (90) – 7:00 pm EST

Senators (92) remaining schedule

4/9 vs. Panthers (78) – 7:00 pm EST
4/11 @ Islanders (89) – 1:00 pm EST
4/12 @ Devils (83) – 7:00 pm EST
4/15 @ Maple Leafs (78) – 7:30 pm EST

Red Wings (89) remaining schedule

4/9 vs. Flyers (92) – 7:00 pm EST
4/11 @ Devils (83) – 5:00 pm EST
4/13 @ Lightning (102) – 7:00 pm EST
4/15 @ Panthers (78) – 7:00 pm EST

The Flyers Magic Number is 7; How Can it Get Lower?

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