I don’t need to tell you what is at stake over the next four days for the Ottawa Senators. Three wins would seal a playoff spot for this once written-off (by me!) iteration of the Sens and even two wins in the next three games will probably get the job done. I can’t overstate the confidence this team has regained with Jake Sanderson in the lineup and now it looks like we might just get bionic arm Thomas Chabot too?! Goddamn. Meanwhile, the Sens need to avoid once again falling into the trap of playing down against a very depleted Panthers team that still very much has Ottawa’s number. Even with less than five NHL-regulars in their lineup, Florida plays a structure that gives Ottawa fits. And unlike Tampa and Carolina, Florida has nothing to lose or gain down the stretch (Chicago has their first-round pick). I imagine every player in the Sens’ room knows how badly they need to avoid a season sweep for the sake of morale.
Florida meanwhile has just two regulation wins in their last ten games including a win over Ottawa that, let’s face it, created an existential panic, no matter how short-lived. The Panthers have the sole responsibility of stirring up shit for the next week. Tkaptain will need to dig deep to keep himself and his team from any such pitfalls tonight so that game 82 against Toronto effectively becomes an exhibition game for a Sens team preparing for round-one of the postseason.
Get the damn thing done. Go Sens Go.
Game Notes:Just like last week, these teams (injuries noted) have put up similar offensive numbers at five-on-five with a slight advantage for Ottawa (2.79 xGF/60) over Florida (2.75). Defensively at five-on-five, the Senators (2.32 xGA/60) have a pronounced advantage over the Panthers (2.71). Neither team has enjoyed especially good five-on-five goaltending this year but both Linus Ullmark and Sergei Bobrovsky have higher ceilings than displayed for the most part this season.On paper, the Cats still have a lethal powerplay (9.95 xGF/60) relative to the Sens (8.61) but injuries could really tilt the scales in a category like that. To that effect, the Sens have had much better shooting luck on the powerplay. Both of these teams have effective penalty kills with Ottawa (7.24 xGA/60) holding a slight advantage over Florida (7.61) but the Panthers have enjoyed better shorthanded goaltending than Ottawa.It goes without saying that Ottawa has a lot to lose in this game and Florida has virtually nothing to gain from playing a good, clean game so the Sens will face all the pressure of remaining composed against an opponent that very effectively gets under the collective skin of opponents.If the leafs (and it pains me to write this) can upset the Islanders and the Sabres can fend off the Blue Jackets then that will go a long way to relieving the pressure on the Sens. I think that ideally we want the Flyers to win and hold that three-spot in their division while effectively ending Detroit’s season, right?All stats courtesy of naturalstattrick
Senators injuries: Thomas Chabot (?!maybe not?!), Dennis Gilbert, Nick Jensen, Tyler Kleven
Panthers injuries: Uvis Balinskis, Aleksander Barkov, Aaron Ekblad, Jonah Gadjovich, Dmitry Kulikov, Anton Lundell, Brad Marchand, Niko Mikkola, Sam Reinhart, Evan Rodrigues, Matthew Tkachuk
Where to watch/listen: RDS2, TSN5, TSN1200 @ 7PM EST
Lines from last game:
Ottawa Senators
Giroux – Stützle – Batherson
Tkachuk – Cozens – Greig
Cousins – Pinto – Amadio
Foegele – Eller – Zetterlund
Sanderson – Zub
Spence – Matinpalo
Crotty – Thomson
Florida Panthers
Verhaeghe – Bennett – Samoskevich
Boqvist – Luostarinen – Greer
Schwindt – Gregor – Nosek
Reinhardt – Kunin – Hinostroza
Forsling – Kulikov
Bjornfort – Jones
Sebrango – Benning