It’s one of the most difficult things to figure out in sports.

When teams are out of the playoffs, and their only real incentive is to tank for draft picks, how do they do that best? The Toronto Maple Leafs were in that spot this season.

They ended up with the fifth-best NHL Draft lottery odds, but that leaves about a 56% chance of them conveying their top-five protected first-round pick to the Boston Bruins.

Just a couple points difference would’ve had the Leafs in a bottom-three spot that would’ve guaranteed they keep their pick.

So one less point and the Leafs would’ve finished third last based on tiebreakers and guaranteed to keep their pick. How they did not prioritize that with even the slightest effort could be a misstep that haunts them for years. pic.twitter.com/biLd7CosSI

— Michael Amato (@amato_mike) April 17, 2026

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Sure, it’s a very easy thing to publicly criticize.

But man, how is that supposed to work? The players on the ice are professionals — they aren’t going to try to lose.

The Leafs traded guys away at the deadline. They shut others down with injury.

At some point, you’ve got to put players on the ice, and sometimes they win games. 

Especially near the end of a season like this one, it can be journeymen or young players on the ice. Their personal incentive is to prove they belong, not help the Leafs get a better draft pick that may replace them anyway.

There’ll never be a perfect answer to this conundrum. For the Maple Leafs, it ended up being right in a tricky area that will leave lottery night holding a lot of suspense.

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