Neil Parker
• Betting Analyst
16+ years betting experience
Updated:
Apr 18, 2026 , 02:25 PM ET
• 3 min read
Parker’s prediction: Minny goes wild in Texas to take Game 1.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Minnesota Wild center Joel Eriksson Ek.
The quarterfinal series between the Minnesota Wild and Dallas Stars is arguably the best on paper, and Game 1 between the Central Division powerhouses goes down today at American Airlines Center.
ESPN has live coverage beginning at 5:30 p.m. ET.
My Wild vs. Stars predictions and NHL picks for Saturday, April 18 expect Minny to pull off the upset in the series opener.
UPDATE: Added a prediction for who will win tonight.
Wild vs Stars Game 1 prediction
Who will win Wild vs Stars Game 1?
Wild: Dallas will miss two-way center Roope Hintz (lower body) against Minnesota, and the Wild ranked seventh in the NHL in expected goals percentage at 5-on-5 after acquiring superstar winner Quinn Hughes in mid-December. As a result, I like the Wild to win Game 1.
Wild vs Stars best bet: Wild moneyline (+105)
The Dallas Stars limped into the postseason with a 7-5-2 record, and just three of those wins came against postseason teams. More concerning, Dallas ranked 20th in expected goals percentage at five-on-five.
For comparison, the Minnesota Wild ranked fourth in xGF% at 5-on-5 during the same stretch.
As noted, Dallas will be without key center Roope Hintz, and No. 1 defenseman Miro Heiskanen (lower body) is likely to play at less than 100% after missing the final three games of the regular season and being deemed questionable for the series opener.
Stars No. 1 Jake Oettinger is also coming off his worst NHL season with a .899 save percentage and just 23.14 goals saved above expected across 54 starts.
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Wild vs Stars Game 1 same-game parlay
The Wild have played to the Over in 19 of their past 25 road games (+12.45 Units / 45% ROI), and as noted, Oettinger hasn’t been sharp. Of course, Dallas and Minnesota also finished second and third in power-play percentage while respectively averaging 3.33 and 3.27 goals per game.
Turning to the final leg of this same-game parlay, Minny winger Matt Boldy ranked in the 98th percentile of shots on goal while recording three or more in 48 of 76 games. He’s also a primary shooter on the No. 1 power-play unit and posted a solid 51.4 Corsi For percentage at five-on-five to pace Wild forwards.
Wild vs Stars SGP
Wild moneyline
Over 5.5
Matt Boldy Over 2.5 shots
Wild vs Stars Game 1 goal scorer pick
Joel Eriksson Ek (+325)
Wild center Joel Eriksson Ek has only scored twice with a 4.6 shooting percentage across his past 17 games despite piling up an impressive 7.96 expected goals and 29 high-danger scoring chances.
There’s statistical correction coming in the goals column for Eriksson Ek considering he’s been dangerous and also posted an 11.3 SH% across 387 games since the beginning of the 2020 campaign.
Wild vs Stars odds for Game 1
Moneyline: Minnesota +100 | Dallas -120
Puck Line: Minnesota +1.5 (-235) | Dallas -1.5 (+186)
Over/Under: Over 6 (-104) | Under 6 (-118)
Wild vs Stars trend
The Stars have only covered the puck line in five of their last 20 games (-9.05 Units / -40% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Wild vs. Stars.
How to watch Wild vs Stars Game 1
Location
American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Date
Saturday, April 19, 2026
Puck drop
5:30 p.m. ET
TV
ESPN, SN
Wild vs Stars latest injuries
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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