Game Two: Montreal Canadiens (1-0) at Tampa Bay Lightning (0-1)

Time: 7:00 PM EST

Location: Benchmark International Arena, Tampa, Florida

TV/Stream/Radio: The Spot, ESPN2, 102.5 FM, Lightning App

Odds: Lightning -192

Know the Opponents: Habs Eyes on the Prize

“We know we have better in us.” If you’ve been around the Tampa Bay Lightning long enough then you’ve heard the phrase before. Much like you’ve heard “Process over Outcome” “Turn the Page” and several other phrases from members of the team and coaching staff. It’s only been one game and Coach Jon Cooper has already pulled out the “better in us” quote, which is probably Defcon 4 levels of concern. At least they aren’t at the “great thing about today is that it isn’t yesterday” level yet.

This is not a must-win game. That doesn’t happen in the playoffs until you’re staring at a “3” in the loss column next to your name. It is, for lack of a better description, a “trying-to-avoid-heading-to-Montreal-in-a-2-0-hole-to-face-a-hopped-up-crowd-and-a-young-team-with-a-ton-of-confidence” game. So, if the Lightning do indeed “have better” in them, tonight is the night to show it.

They did a lot of things really well in Game One. A power play that couldn’t find the back of the net with a compass and a map for most of March scored twice. They limited chances at 5v5. They created a little havoc in the neutral zone. In 12 minutes of 5v5 time they limited the Canadiens’ top line to just one shot on goal and two high-danger chances (stick taps to the Anthony Cirelli line for that).

Unfortunately, they didn’t do enough to actually win the game. Their penalty kill struggled with Montreal’s crisp puck movement and left Juraj Slafkovsky wide open for two of his three goals. Offensively, they didn’t generate enough traffic in front of Jakob Dobes or get to the front of the net enough.

In playoff series, as opposed to the regular series, “luck” can have a slightly bigger influence on the outcome of a game. A team doesn’t have to consistently win the high-danger chance battle to win a game. It’s just as likely that a random puck flung in the general direction of the net hits a stick, a skate, and the inside of the post to win a game as a well-constructed play that leads to a prime scoring chance.

That being said, the Lightning generated one, ONE aka the loneliest number, high-danger chance at 5v5 against the Canadiens. That isn’t good enough, and it’s an indication that they weren’t getting to the front of the net. Overall, the Bolts won the shot attempt battle with 23 shots, but 10 of those came on the power play.

A quick look the 5v5 shot attempts courtesy of Evolving Hockey:

For context, the bigger the square, the higher the expected goals value for the shot attempt. The two glaring takeaways from this visual are that most of Tampa Bay’s shots came from the perimeter. Second, Montreal did a really good job of getting their attempts from right in front of Vasilevskiy.

Second, and you can’t see this on this visual because it’s not interactive, the Canadiens best chances came from their forwards. Only one of those large squares in the front of the net was from a defenseman. On the Lightning’s side, both of their top chances came from a defenseman (Darren Raddysh and Erik Cernak).

Yes that is part of the Lightning system to generate chances from activated defensemen, but the absolute lack of prime chances from forwards (outside of Brandon Hagel’s goal) is worrisome. They have to get in front of the net and make life difficult for Dobes. Even if it’s just a screen or an extra jab at the puck.

The Cirelli line was the Lightning’s best line, not only for what they did to slow down the Nick Suzuki line, but they were one of the few lines that generated some offense as well. Hagel, Cirelli, and Jake Guentzel combined for 8 of the Lightning’s 5v5 shot attempts and 5 of their scoring chances. The top line of Gage Goncalves, Brayden Point, and Nikita Kucherov had just 2 scoring chances all night. Some of that can be credited to Montreal’s top pairing of Mike Matheson and Alexandre Carrier who spent the bulk of the night on the ice against them.

There was no doubt that this was going to be a close series, despite what a lot of the national media predicted. It was the Lightning’s inability to refrain from pointless/stupid/careless penalties that cost them in Game One. If they can clean that up and get a little more traffic in front of the net, they can pick up the win and send this series to Montreal all tied at one game a piece.

As for the line-up, consensus seems to be that Declan Carlile will draw in and make his playoffs debut due to the injury to Charle-Edouard D’Astous. It’s unlikely they will start the game with any other line-up changes. Outside of the Josh Anderson hit on D’Astous, the game wasn’t aggressively physical. Yes, there were plenty of hits, but there wasn’t a ton of post-whistle nonsense. With that style of play Coach Cooper is going to lean to having a little more skill on the ice than physicality, so Conor Geekie likely stays in over Scott Sabourin.

Potential Lines

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forwards:

Gage GoncalvesBrayden PointNikita KucherovBrandon HagelAnthony CirelliJake GuentzelNick PaulYanni GourdeZemgus GirgensonsCorey PerryDominic JamesConor Geekie

Defense:

J.J. MoserDarren RaddyshRyan McDonaghErik CernakEmil LillebergDeclan Carlile

Goaltenders:

Andrei VasilevskiyJonas Johansson

Montral Canadiens

Forwards:

Cole CaufieldNick SuzukiJuraj SlafkovskyAlexandre TexierAlex NewhookIvan DemidovZack BolducOliver KapanenKirby DachJake EvansPhillip DanaultJosh Anderson

Defense:

Mike MathesonAlexandre CarrierKaiden GuhleLane HutsonJayden StrubleArber Xhekaj

Goaltenders: