There’s the little “E” once again. I can remember a point in the season when I said it was more likely that Detroit makes the conference final than they miss the playoffs. Call it bad journalism, call it blind optimism, but there was a time I genuinely believed it.
John Gibson, for about half the season, was the best goaltender in the NHL, and even when he petered out a bit towards the end, he was still solid. Cam Talbot gave tolerable minutes in the Red Wings crease when he was called upon. Both of the past two seasons, I would have been pretty confident that goal-tending like this would have been enough to get Detroit into the postseason. Especially when the defense core in front of the goalies has been as steady as they have been.
For most stretches of this season, Mo Seider has had a pretty impressive case for the Norris trophy. Obviously, voters will still end up turning it into the best offensive-defenceman award, but Seider has been the best shut-down defenceman in the NHL this season. Between Faulk, Chiarot, Edvinsson, and Johansson, the Red Wings ‘ defense core has been pretty steady down the stretch.
The problem yet again lies in the forward group. I made a point over the summer to say that Detroit will fall flat again if they don’t start scoring. The hope was that Marco Kasper would continue his tear from the previous season, Andrew Copp would continue to be a steadying presence, and the addition of Van Riemsdyk and Appleton would add enough of a punch to produce. Unfortunately, it’s been a similar story to years past in Detroit.
It doesn’t seem to matter who Detroit brings in to help the offense; it doesn’t seem to work. Last season, Detroit’s top six included Lucas Raymond, Dylan Larkin, Patrick Kane, Alex DeBrincat, and a hot Marco Kasper to end the season. In the depths were Andrew Copp, Vlad Tarasenko, Craig Smith, and the lengthy Elmer Soderblom. On paper, it should have been enough down the stretch to get Detroit enough goals to be in the race.
It was a similar case this season; the top six had the same staples, the bottom six had a mix of fresh rookies and solid veterans that should have been enough to make Detroit at least an average offensive team.
Obviously, now in hindsight, it’s easy to say they weren’t. The team lacks offense in a bad way. While there have been positives, such as Emmitt Finnie becoming a really solid option as a top-line winger, Alex DeBrincat having a career year, and Mo Seider taking a leap in his offense, there is clearly a decent foundation. The depth, however, needs serious work.
In the System
Carter Bear for the Detroit Red Wings | Photo: Matt Winkelmeyer, Getty Images
The biggest flaw of the Red Wings prospect pool is that they never really had a promising offensive game breaker, the good new is, they really only need depth support at the moment. Don’t get me wrong, another legit offensive force would go a long way, but that’s probably not something that is going to be addressed in the short term. Instead, I think the best path forward should be looking to get their prospects into the lineups in places that can turn them into valuable producers.
First, I’m looking at Carter Bear to make the leap directly into the NHL. It’s ambitious, of course, but I think it’s probably the best chance Detroit has at finding some high-end offense. He plays a similar style to Marco Kasper but with more promising offensive numbers. Detroit was fine putting Michael Brandsegg-Nygard on the opening night roster despite not having any experience in North America to that point.
The style isn’t identical, but I look at Washington’s Ryan Leonard as a comparable for Bear at the NHL level. Leonard has been able to produce a solid offense, as well as using his frame to throw some hits. Detroit could desperately use someone with a threatening shot and some consistent speed next to Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond. If anyone can do it, it would be Carter Bear.
Brandsegg-Nygard for the Griffins | Photo: Rick Crossman – Inside The Rink
On the other end of this is Michael Brandsegg-Nygard. Despite showing promise at the AHL level for pretty much the entire season, he hasn’t produced at the NHL level this season. Despite that, though, I think MBN needs to remain on the Red Wings roster for the entirety of the next season.
Despite struggling to produce offense, the team just works better with MBN in the lineup. The Red Wings are 7-5-0 with MBN in the lineup, which doesn’t seem all that impressive, but two of those losses came during the no-Copp and no-Larkin period of the season.
More importantly than that, MBN lands an average of 3.0 hits per game, which converts to 14.6 hits per/60 given his ice time. Despite the lack of production, I never feel like there is a wasted shift when MBN is on the ice. He adds a level of speed and identity to the bottom six that simply isn’t there otherwise.
Ideally, MBN will find the offense that he has at both the AHL, SHL, and International level, but even if he is a below-average producer, his presence still provides value. With the right supporting cast, I do believe he could find his offense, but that’s looking a little too far ahead. Detroit’s depth is a handful of years away from being complete, and I think MBN will be a late bloomer because of it.
Both Bear and MBN give the Red Wings a start in getting competent depth. They both provide speed and scoring potential that the team sorely lacks. As much as I’d love to see Danielson and Plante make the jump next season, I can’t imagine the depth chart having four to five forwards in their first three seasons all playing at once.
It’s not the only thing the team needs, but it’s certainly a start. Assuming both of them play as projected, I could see them being two staples in the forward group that could actually start to correct the current issues. However, it’s not like the current staples don’t need any work.
Internal Growth
Lucas Raymond for the Red Wings | (AP Photo/Paul Sancya)(APMedia)
Raymond is killing me, man. This is the second season in a row I had him as a serious threat to score 90-points and yet again he’s fallen short. He has faced injuries this season, both confirmed and speculated, but as have most of the league’s best players. Raymond’s been fantastic at times this year, being one of the best distributors in the NHL, but for the second season in a row, his 90+ point pace has been spoiled due to a poor post-break stretch.
Don’t get me wrong, Raymond is still a great player even as is, but if Detroit wants a star forward, it needs to be him. It starts with producing more at even strength. Last season, it was a little more justified as he was stapled to defensive deployments with poor wing support, but it hasn’t been the case this season.
While the problems I mentioned are still present, it was expected that Raymond would take a bit more of a step after multiple incredible international campaigns with Team Sweden. Unfortunately, Raymond has been far too patient and hasn’t used his speed nearly as much.
Again, is Raymond the problem in Detroit’s offense? No. But, if we are under the expectation that Lucas Raymond is a true NHL superstar, his play has been lackluster too often.
Marco Kasper celebrating | AP Photo/Duane Burleson
Before the season started, I had Kasper pushing for the first line center spot by the end of the season. His 55-point pace under Todd McClellan was practically the same offensive output Raymond and Larkin had in their rookie seasons. Pre-season, I predicted Kasper to bump the sophomore slump and get into the 60-point range without much power play time.
It would appear I was wrong. He has thrown more hits and become a little better in the face-off circle, but his point production has fallen off the map. He’s recorded less than half of his rookie season goal total and hasn’t even broken the 20-point mark.
It’s just the lack of opportunity; he hasn’t been making the most of the opportunities he’s had. During the Larkin and Copp injuries, he couldn’t seize the top center spot from J.T. Compher of all people. He started the season as the second line center and lost the spot instantly. Even in his look at the top line, left-wing, he didn’t produce enough to keep the spot.
All things considered, going into the summer, Kasper looked like a revelation. In the World Championship, he was on the MVP ladders for his 4 goals and 7 points in 8 games without any points on the power play for Austria. It’s possible it’s just a sophomore slump, and he’s going to come back with a chip on his shoulder. But if this is just who Marco Kasper is, the center depth for this team is going to need help externally.
Emmitt Finnie celebrating for Detroit | AP Photo/Ryan Sun
Finnie broke onto the scene at training camp in Detroit after getting looks on the first line. By the end of this season, Emmitt Finnie is the only rookie who hasn’t been sent down to the AHL. Emmitt Finnie looks like a serious scoring option for the Red Wings going forward.
This might be me doing the Marco Kasper thing again, where I overvalue a good rookie season. He seems like the most natural line driver aside from the big guys in the lineup. His speed and size is enough to force other teams into making mistakes and getting softer players the puck.
At his absolute peak, I think Finnie could end up looking a lot like Dylan Larkin or Nick Ehlers if he stays on the wing. He’s shown flashes of having a threatening shot as well as using his speed to shrink the ice on the forecheck.
It would be asking a lot to get any more than a consistent 30-point guy out of Emmitt Finnie, but if he can find another gear while surrounded by the right cast, I wouldn’t be surprised if he can scare the 50-point mark in a few years. At the very least, if no other option prevails, he should keep his spot on the top line with Larkin and Raymond.
Nate Danielson for the Red Wings | Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports
I’ll admit I’m starting to worry about Nate Danielson. In the off-season, I had him as the Red Wings’ best prospect. I saw him as a guy with a really high floor and a deceptively high ceiling, citing that the only addition he really needed was a bit more power behind his shot.
After a pretty solid stint at the NHL level, I would be lying if I said I saw too many flashes of NHL level skills. In 28 games, he recorded two goals, both of which were deflected in. He wasn’t playing at a great level either. I can think of more times he missed wide-open nets than he created a dangerous chance for his line.
In saying that, though, he wasn’t really given a fair chance to succeed. He spent most of his NHL stint with one of Marco Kasper or Elmer Soderblom, who didn’t do much to get some offense out of him. He was also playing in pretty rough deployments as a center, which has never been a recipe for rookie success.
It’s possible that if he got a look as the playmaker alongside Alex DeBrincat on the second line, he could’ve found his game a bit more, but as it stands, Danielson hasn’t inspired much hope, and he’s going to be 22 by the time next season starts.
If Danielson can find his game, he gives Detroit a speedy playmaker who can handle defensive minutes, which will go a long way for this team. He’s done it at the AHL level, and it’s going to take crossing our fingers this off-season again for him to put on some muscle to be able to translate his offensive gifts to the next level.
Off-Season Options
A. J. Greer scores on a breakaway in the second period. (AP Photo/Jeff Chiu)
It’s time to face the music about external options; nobody is going to want to come to Detroit. The team with the longest playoff drought in the NHL is never going to be a free agent destination. Look at Buffalo, they haven’t been able to bring in any big names in years. It’s going to be a lot of the same for the Red Wings until they can snap the drought.
They could try to get creative this off-season, similar to how Pittsburgh and Boston went out last season to get players with size and speed, hoping the offense would come. They could also try to involve themselves in the offer sheet business, but without a 2026 first or a 2027 second, they could only offer up to 4.6M.
With that limit, there isn’t a ton of guys they could reasonably poach on the RFA market. Mintyukov and Samoskevich seem possible given the circumstances around them (Anaheim shopping him earlier and Florida being cap strapped), but even that is optimistic they’d sign with Detroit.
As for UFAs, there aren’t any that would reasonably consider Detroit. I like McMann and Greer a lot, but I don’t think they would come to Detroit, all things considered, unless Detroit throws an uncomfortable amount of money at them.
Elias Pettersson for the Canucks | Photo by Stephen R. Sylvanie-USA TODAY Sports
If there is a path to getting a game breaker in Detroit, it looks like it’ll be a reclamation project of some sort. Detroit has a long history of ruining already solid players. Copp and Compher looked much worse in Detroit than they had in the years prior. David Perron and Justin Faulk have been better recently, but nothing like their pre-trade form, but betting on talent seems to be the only way forward.
Elias Pettersson has been the name floated around for a while. If any team has the cap space and future assets to take him on, it’s probably the Red Wings. Detroit’s in desperate need for a star-level player. Betting on damaged goods has worked for teams around Detroit before. Pierre-Luc Dubois and his health have a pretty strong correlation to how good the Capitals are at any given moment. Philly’s recent gamble on Trevor Zegras looks like a nicety from the Ducks for the Gauthier saga. Even the Laine experiment could’ve gone worse for the Canadiens.
But even Pettersson has a no-movement clause, and I can’t imagine he’d want to go from one high-pressure market to another with bigger expectations in the short term.
Beyond that, the options are severely limited. I can’t imagine there is any smoke behind the Auston Matthews rumors in general, much less any linking him to Detroit. I’d be interested in anything involving Kent Johnson if Columbus is still frustrated there, but I have no idea what the cost might be. I also think Alexis Lafreniere is probably still part of the future in the eyes of Rangers management since he’s broken out after Panarin got traded.
As much as I’d love Detroit to bet on talent, I don’t know that talent is ready to bet on Detroit.
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