I’m furious right now. Amidst an offseason where Detroit needs to add a second-line center, the Red Wings captain has made it public that he wants to leave Detroit. I grew up watching Dylan Larkin, and I can say comfortably that this is one of the softest moves I’ve ever seen from the captain of an NHL team. Bailing on the team you swore to help fix after not scoring at even strength down the stretch is pretty gutless. Though I suppose that’s just the way things go.
Dylan Larkin forced the Red Wings’ hand here, and he’s going to be dealt in all likelihood. The question for me isn’t where he’s going to go, it’s what he’s actually worth and building a trade from there. So I’ll do my best to try to outline what a trade for Dylan Larkin should actually look like.
Dylan Larkin’s Individual Value
Red Wings former captain Dylan Larkin | AP Photo/Frank Franklin II
What truly is the value of a first-line center these days? Frankly, it’s been so long since one has moved that I think the market is yet to truly have a baseline. It’s not like defencemen or wingers, where the precedent has been set by players like Quinn Hughes or Mikko Rantanen. A center who can play all situations while putting up 30+ goals on an offensively inept roster is arguably the most valuable position in hockey, so the return should be pretty large.
Since 2023-24, Dylan Larkin ranks 32nd in the entire NHL in total WAR (wins above replacement). In the top 50, only five other players have been traded. Two of them being the Mitch Marner and Artemi Panarin trades, both deals where the player was due to pick their destination anyway. Here are the returns for the players who were traded.
*Larkin was rated a +9.46, numbers from advancedhockeystats.com
Artemi Panarin +15.18Liam Greentree, 3rd round pick, 4th round pickQuinn Hughes +11.39Marco Rossi, Zeev Buium, Liam Ohgren, 1st round pickMitch Marner +11.13Nicolas RoyJake Guentzel +11.08Michael Bunting, Villi Koivunen, Vasily Ponumarev, Cruz Lucius, conditional 1st round pick, conditional 5th round pickMartin Necas +8.54
*traded with Jack Drury, 2nd round pick & 4th round pickMikko Rantanen, Taylor Hall
If this list does anything, it shows just how difficult it can be to pin down a star player’s value. Obviously, Mitch Marner, Artemi Panarin, and Jake Guentzel were dealt on expiring deals, but you can see just how much variance there is between them.
However, the two who were traded with some term left were Martin Necas and Quinn Hughes, both of whom got pretty elite returns. With Larkin having five years left on his deal, it will surely give whatever team is trading for him some comfort. Though neither of those players had trade protection, which means they were sold to the highest bidder.
There is one more trade I think is important to discuss before moving on, though, J.T. Miller’s trade. J.T. Miller also had a full no movement clause and requested a trade out of Vancouver, landing the following return.
J.T. Miller +5.81
*traded with Erik Brannstrom & Jack DorringtonVictor Mancini, Filip Chytil, 1st round pick
While it seems like the most likely comparison, this is ultimately the worst-case scenario for the Red Wings. A C-tier prospect, a reclamation project player, and a mid-first round draft pick. There will certainly be general managers claiming this is the range Dylan Larkin belongs in.
So ultimately, Larkin will land somewhere in the Range of J.T. Miller as the worst case to Quinn Hughes as the best case. But, there is some sort of inflation in the NHL with trades that might lead to Larkin’s deal looking better than his peers, but only relative to a more expensive market.
Market Value
Apr 10, 2023; Los Angeles, California, USA; Vancouver Canucks center J.T. Miller (9) and Los Angeles Kings right wing Adrian Kempe (9) fight in the second period at Crypto.com Arena. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports
Let’s start by looking at the post-Quinn Hughes market. Of the players who slotted into the top six or top four of their original team and had one or more years of term, here are the returns.
Justin FaulkJustin Holl, Dmitri Buchelnikov, 1st round pick, 3rd round pickNazem KadriVictor Olofsson, Max Curran, 1st round pick, 2nd round pickRasmus AnderssonZach Whitecloud, Abram Wiebe, 1st round pick, 2nd round pickMacKenzie WeegarOlli Maata, Johnathan Castagna, 2nd round pick, 2nd round pick, 2nd round pickKiefer SherwoodCole Clayton, 2nd round pick, 2nd round pickBrayden SchennJonathan Drouin, Marcus Gidilof, 1st round pick, 3rd round pick
Here’s the bad news. None of these returns are franchise-resetting level trades. The good news is Dylan Larkin is worth at the very least double what each of these players is for either term, age, production, cap hit, or all of the above. So, the J.T. Miller trade isn’t something to worry about happening to the Red Wings here.
What we do know is that Blues forward Robert Thomas, who is of a similar profile to Dylan Larkin, had his value set very high, but nobody was willing to go all in. The rumor that I read online and saw repeated in a few places with Buffalo was along the lines of Owen Power, Jack Quinn, and Konsta Helenius.
With teams not having any major players to chase in free agency and most of the NHL looking to improve, teams may be willing to pay a price at that level for Dylan Larkin, given his pedigree and consistency to this point. If that’s the cost in a high market, then it’s worth it every second for Detroit.
Potential Deals
Lundell celebrates scoring a goal in the first period. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
No matter if you think he’s worth it or not, Dylan Larkin is going to command a pretty huge return. Here are some potential deals I think a trade for Larkin could be worked around.
Panthers: Anton Lundell, Carter Verhaege, 2026 1st round pick
Wild: Danila Yurov, Charlie Stramel, 1st round picks
Golden Knights: Dorofeyev + ??
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