The Stanley Cup Final has arrived.
This isn’t just any final determined which team will be crowned champion, but instead a rematch as the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers face off in the Finals for the second straight year, the first time this has happened in 16 years, when the Pittsburgh Penguins and Detroit Red Wings met in the Stanley Cup Final in 2008 and 2009.
The Oilers will be looking to pull off what the Penguins did, in winning the second meeting after losing the first matchup last year to the Panthers in an action packed, drama filled seven game series that went Florida’s way in Game 7.
Now comes the most important question: Which team will come out on top and take a 1-0 series lead?
Here’s the betting lines ahead of Game 1, including our analysis on the spread, total and moneyline prediction for Game 1 between Panthers and Oilers in the Stanley Cup Final:
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Wednesday, June 4:
Oilers vs. Panthers spread: Panthers +1.5 (-220), Oilers -1.5 (+185)
With the Oilers owning home ice, it’s no surprise they’re the favorite here on the puck line and moneyline.
For the Oilers, nine of their 12 wins have been decided by at least two goals, including all four victories against the Dallas Stars in the Western Conference Final.
On the other side, 11 of Florida’s 12 wins in these playoffs have come by two or more goals, with the lone exception being a 5-4 win versus the Toronto Maple Leafs in the second round.
These two teams have combined to appear in a one goal game in only six of 33 postseason games, which is equivalent to only 18% of the time.
While these are the two best teams remaining, it’s clear that there’s a good chance most of this Stanley Cup Final will be decided by multiple goals.
With that being said, I’m taking the Oilers side here on the puck line at nearly 2/1 odds, as they’re 6-1 at home this postseason, with five of those victories coming by at least goals.
Prediction: Oilers -1.5 (+185)
Oilers vs. Panthers total: Over 6.5 goals (-110), Under 6.5 goals (-110)
In last year’s Stanley Cup Final, it took a bit for the scoring to start to really open up as the first two games only had a combined eight goals.
Game 3 is where the goals finally started flowing, as each of the games leading up to the 2-1 score in Game 7 had at least six goals, including a nine goal outburst in Game 4 where Edmonton found the back of the net eight times to keep the series alive and ultimately making it all the way to a winner-take-all Game 7 last season.
Do I expect this year’s Stanley Cup Final to start off low scoring again? No. But I do believe this total stays just below this 6.5 total goals line for the under to be the right side in Game 1.
Prediction: Under 6.5 goals (-110)
Oilers vs. Panthers moneyline: Oilers -130 (Bet $130 to win $100), Panthers +145 (Bet $100 to win $110)
There’s no doubt Rogers Place will be electrifying when the puck is finally dropped in Game 1. Looking back, the Oilers combined to outscore the Panthers 16-6 and won two of their three home games in the Final a season ago.
Now, in the most recent two meetings in the regular season, the Panthers owned the matchup, winning both games by one goal, with the most recent meeting coming on Feb. 27 at Amerant Bank Arena.
Florida has not had trouble on the road this postseason, posting a 8-2 record away from Sunrise with their last road loss coming all the way back on May 7 against the Leafs.
Will the Panthers win at least one of the games north of the border in the series? It’s highly likely.
But when it comes down to this year’s Game 1, it will be the Oilers who win a close scoring game at home and add an empty net goal to already solidify getting over to a much better start this go around versus the Panthers and will look to take a 2-0 series lead on Friday night.
Prediction: Oilers 4, Panthers 2