When Brock Nelson was approaching free agency, he had a pretty good idea of what might be out there if he reached July 1 without a contract.
He was comfortable with what the Colorado Avalanche offered, and Nelson signed a three-year, $22.5 million deal about three weeks before he could have reached the open market. That was June 4, 2025.
Flash forward a little more than 15 months. The Avs have another valuable, veteran member of their core who needs a new contract for next season. What is Artturi Lehkonen worth in a financial reality that has changed dramatically since Nelson signed?
“I’m not an expert, but I feel like you could always kind of throw a blanket out with a little range and you were going to be close. Now, I don’t know,” Nelson said. “I think he’s an underrated player that is going to get a nice contract for sure. He deserves it. He works extremely hard. But it’s definitely different than two or three years ago.”
The NHL’s cap ceiling from 2019-24 increased only $81.5 million to $83.5 million. It has since skyrocketed, up to $104 million this season. It is projected to climb to $113.5 million next year.
That’s more than a 26% increase in four seasons, with more jumps expected in the coming years. When Nathan MacKinnon signed in September 2022, his $12.6 million cap hit was the highest in the NHL.
The new era of NHL contracts began with Kirill Kaprizov signing a $17 million-per-year deal in Sept. 2025, but it really exploded this summer. Eight players have signed deals worth $12 million-plus since July 1, the latest being Adam Fantilli, who signed a six-year deal worth $13.75 million annually with Columbus on Thursday.
Fantilli isn’t close to as accomplished as MacKinnon was when he signed four years ago, but the percentage of the cap his contract consumes is also less.
The math has changed. It’s changing at warp speed, and collectively, people around the league still aren’t sure where it’s headed or what constitutes a “team-friendly” or “player-friendly” contract anymore.
“I’m happy for the guys,” Lehkonen said. “They’re getting paid even younger and younger. Players nowadays have to be thankful for the players who probably aren’t in the league anymore who have grown the game to the level it is.”
Many of the “whoa” contracts signed in the past few months have gone to younger, less-proven players. Ryan Leonard has 20 goals in 84 career NHL games, but is an exciting young forward, so the Washington Capitals gave him an eight-year, $84 million contract. The Pittsburgh Penguins gave eight years and $32 million to forward Ville Koivunen, who has seven points in 39 career NHL games.
Those contracts, which aim to recoup future savings from the rising cap, are unlikely to have much bearing on the Lehkonen negotiations. If Leonard is actually worth $10.5 million annually right now, then Lehkonen and many other established players would get even more.
Artturi Lehkonen (62) of the Colorado Avalanche reaches for the puck as Moritz Seider (53) of the Detroit Red Wings defends during the third period of the Red Wings’ 2-0 win at Ball Arena on Tuesday, February 2, 2026. (Photo by AAron Ontiveroz/The Denver Post)
One of the trickiest parts for Lehkonen and the Avalanche is the lack of similar contracts signed in the NHL’s new world. Philadelphia signed Leo Carlsson to a five-year, $90 million offer sheet on July 3, which Anaheim matched to keep their 21-year-old franchise center at $18 million per year six days later.
Lehkonen is 31 years old. There have been only five forwards aged 30 or older to sign new deals since July 9. Two are the captains of the Stanley Cup finalists — Carolina’s Jordan Staal and Vegas’ Mark Stone. One is Patrick Kane, who at 37 is returning to Chicago.
The other two are players who might be similar to Lehkonen in value — Anthony Mantha is 31 and coming off a 33-goal season, while Chris Kreider is 35 and coming off a 22-goal, 50-point season. Mantha was a free agent July 1, but didn’t sign until July 15, getting two years at $4.75 million annually from New Jersey. Kreider was essentially cut loose by Anaheim because of cap issues and didn’t become a free agent until Sept. 10. He signed a one-year, incentive-laden deal with Montreal two days later.
Lehkonen is a better all-around player than Mantha. He’s younger than Kreider, and those were unique circumstances. So there really isn’t a great comparable out there for Lehkonen in the new financial landscape.
San Jose’s Mason Marchment is also 31 and signed on July 1 to a six-year, $6.75 million-per-year deal. At first blush, most Avs fans would say Lehkonen is a better player. Their production over the past three seasons is almost identical — Marchment has 63 goals, 145 points, while Lehkonen has 64 goals, 127 points.
That is in part because Marchment has played 27 more games, but availability is a factor in contract negotiations. Before the new landscape, a player like Lehkonen might get a longer deal to knock the average annual value down a little. Recent contracts suggest the teams aren’t getting as much benefit from that.
Lehkonen could be a test subject that teams around the league monitor closely. Given this new commitment to playing young players very early, what will that mean for guys in the middle of their careers like Lehkonen?
Given the contracts given to superstars like Cale Makar, what will that mean for supplemental stars like Lehkonen? It felt like Mantha got squeezed, but is that the start of a trend, or just player-specific due to some flaws in his game?
As one Avalanche player noted, it feels like this could go in a few different directions for Lehkonen and the Avs. He’s a beloved teammate, a trusted player in all situations and a proven playoff warrior. These things all factor in, just like they have for decades. But the money is different now, in ways that everyone isn’t even sure about yet.
Could Lehkonen get a shorter deal with a big average annual value? Sure, and he’d be worth it. What about a longer deal similar to the one Marchment signed? That makes sense, too. Does a long deal with big money work for the Avs? Maybe not.
It’s a bit of a mystery at this point. Lehkonen, always one of the most even-keeled players in the Avs locker room, doesn’t seem too concerned.
“I’m not too worried about it,” Lehkonen said. “I’m just focused on playing well and helping the team win. I’m sure it’s going to sort itself out.”
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