The draft is this week, and plenty of offseason action is already taking shape, with a few trades and transactions setting the tone for what should be a wild week. The New York Islanders were one of the teams in on the action, as they hired Rocky Thompson, a new head coach, to lead the American Hockey League (AHL) team.
Their focus, however, is on the draft and the top pick. After weeks of speculation, general manager (GM) Mathieu Darche will finally decide who he wants to build around for the future. There are great cases to draft Michael Misa and multiple other elite forwards, but the best option is defenseman Matthew Schaefer, who has more than enough reasons to go first overall.
Schaefer Is the Best Player on the Board
Misa has the highest upside among the forwards in this class. It’s why there’s a great case for the Islanders to take him and have their top-line center to build around. Aside from Misa, there are also plenty of paths for Darche with the top pick, including flipping it for more assets.
Matthew Schaefer of the Erie Otters. (Photo Credit: Mark Scheig/The Hockey Writers)
However, this is a pick the Islanders won’t overthink, or at least they shouldn’t. Schaefer is the best player in this draft with the highest ceiling, and it’s why Darche shouldn’t hesitate on Friday night. He has all the skills to become a great two-way defenseman and someone the Islanders can build around.
Misa can become the next Tim Stutzle if all goes right. Most teams will happily take a player of Stutzle’s caliber, as the Ottawa Senators are seeing firsthand the benefits of having an elite center like him on their top line. Schaefer can become the next Miro Heiskanen or a game-changing defenseman like Quinn Hughes, and it’s why the Islanders must take him.
A Game-Changing Defenseman Goes a Long Way
The Florida Panthers won the Stanley Cup without a clear number one defenseman, or even a two-way defenseman who could take over games from the point. They invested in the forward unit and their goaltender while cutting corners on defense, and it’s possible other teams will follow suit.
Hughes, Cale Makar, Zach Werenski, and other elite two-way defensemen suggest otherwise. Having a player who takes over games at both ends and can do so while averaging 25 minutes or more of ice time is invaluable. Throughout NHL history, teams have won the Cup with a defenseman taking over games, and it’s why the few who are capable of doing so are such a hot commodity.
Schaefer is one of those players who impacts all facets of the game. Along with his scoring is elite puck-moving and passing. Defensively, he can turn defense into offense while also stepping up and playing a physical brand of hockey. Schaefer can take over a game on any shift, and it’s why he’s a star in the making.
Schaefer Balances Out the Prospect Pool
The Islanders already have Cole Eiserman and Calum Ritchie in their system, two elite forwards to build around. Throw in Danny Nelson, Kamil Bednarik, and a few AHL skaters who can be depth players at the NHL level, and the Islanders’ forward group for the future is set.
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The defensive prospects are Isaiah George, who looks to be a regular on the NHL team next season, and Calle Odelius, who struggled in the AHL this season. Otherwise, there aren’t many defensemen in the system, and the cornerstone players on the NHL team, outside of Alexander Romanov and Noah Dobson, are in their 30s and on the decline.
Schaefer is ideally on the NHL roster to start the season. He’s talented enough, but the question is if he’s ready for the speed and size as a still-developing prospect. Regardless, he’s still a defenseman in the pipeline for the Islanders, something they desperately need.
Darche Must Play the Long Game
The Islanders are retooling, not rebuilding. With Mathew Barzal, Bo Horvat, and Ilya Sorokin in their primes, they will fight for a playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and will be competitive as Darche builds up the farm system. Putting together a strong prospect pool takes time, and Darche won’t have a great one for at least a few seasons.
Drafting Schaefer gives the Islanders, and Darche specifically, time. The bet with Schaefer is that in the long run, he will be the best player from this draft. Defensemen take longer to develop, and he’s only 17. Most defensemen start to hit their stride around 25, so the team and the fanbase must be patient with him. By selecting him, the Islanders are looking at a Cup contention window a few years from now and not next season.
Islanders’ Historic Reasons For Drafting Schaefer
The Islanders don’t have a lot of history when it comes to the number one pick, but they have significant moments the few times they’ve owned the selection. The last time they had the top pick was the 2009 Entry Draft, and they took John Tavares. Interestingly, the next pick was a generational talent, defenseman Victor Hedman. Darche knows the value of having a Hedman on the roster to build around, and Schaefer can be his version of that.
The last time the Islanders took a defenseman first overall was in 1973 when they selected Denis Potvin, one of the greatest defensemen of all time. When Bill Torrey took Potvin, the Islanders started seeing success on the ice and went from an expansion franchise to a team on the rise.
There’s plenty of debate about who the best player was during the star-studded Islanders dynasty. Mike Bossy was a perennial 50-goal scorer, and Billy Smith was the goaltender who not only blanked teams but also made sure they weren’t anywhere near his crease. Potvin was the glue who made everything work. He set up the offense and had the speed to keep up with opposing forwards. He impacted all facets of the game to fuel the dynasty.
Schaefer isn’t Potvin and won’t be nearly as good by the end of his career (although one can hope). However, Darche must find that glue player for the Islanders, that player who makes a difference in every aspect and takes over games. Schaefer is that.
