Somewhere around pick five in Friday’s first round of the NHL Draft, general managers are going to have to make the sort of decision that can define their careers.
Do they draft Roger McQueen or let him pass? Picking seventh overall, the Bruins are right on the edge of when teams will consider picking him.
There are obviously no sure things when picking 18-year-olds. But based on his profile, McQueen projects to be either a steal or bust, a franchise cornerstone or a guy who gets people fired.
McQueen has all the traits teams look for in a top-six standout forward. He’s big. He’s skilled. Not just skilled for a 6-foot-5 guy, but skilled for anybody. In the Athletic’s poll ranking the draft prospects’ specific abilities, he was ranked No. 3 for best puck skills.
On top of that, McQueen has a fun name and an affable personality a team can market. He’d probably be a top-three pick if it wasn’t for the injury.
But any conversation about McQueen eventually gets around to his back injury. It was initially believed to be a bulging disc, but that turned out to be a misdiagnosis. According to NHL.com, a spinal surgeon in Winnipeg later diagnosed it as a spinal fracture in his lower back.
That regimen of rest required to heal it cost him most of his season. He returned for the WHL playoffs and then suffered a muscle injury. His lack of playing left teams to wonder:
Is McQueen damaged goods or a bargain?
It’s possible that if the season had a few weeks left in it, McQueen would have reestablished himself. Or he might have shown red flags that would have exacerbated concerns.
Instead, he’s a mystery. Most mock drafts don’t have him dropping out of the top 15.
Teams can’t afford to miss with a top-three pick for sure. They’re counting on the guy whose name they call to be a contributor for a decade plus.
Picking at No. 7, the center-needy Bruins will likely have to consider him.
BRANDON, CANADA – OCTOBER 08: Roger McQueen #13 of the Brandon Wheat Kings skates during first period action against the Everett Silvertips at Westoba Place on October 08, 2024 in Brandon, Manitoba, Canada. (Photo by Jonathan Kozub/Getty Images)Getty Images
It’s a pretty good draft for centers with a lot of guys who project to have middle-six floors and second-line and maybe first-line ceilings.
If Caleb Desnoyers, Anton Frondell, Porter Mortone (who is a wing) or James Hagens slide to Boston, then they could pass on McQueen. All four of those guys have comparable upside without the health risk.
But if they’re gone and the Bruins are choosing between Jake O’Brien, Brady Martin and McQueen, it becomes time to weigh risk vs. reward.
The Bruins need to hit on this pick. They’ve dealt a lot of first-round picks away for ready-to-help now players. Of the picks they’ve made since 2019 in any round, only Mason Lohrei and Johnny Beecher have proven to be NHL-caliber regulars. When whoever they draft arrives, the Bruins need him to be a key piece for years to come.
McQueen likely has a higher ceiling and a lower floor than Brady Martin or Jake O’Brien, at least one of whom is likely to be there at No. 7.
NHL’s Central Scouting had McQueen ranked as the No. 8 North American Skater and the Athletic’s draft guru Scott Wheeler thinks he might be better than that.
“It’s his ability to control and manipulate pucks in tight to his body, with his length, that I think distinguishes him and gets scouts excited,” Wheeler wrote. “He can carry pucks into traffic and problem-solve in ways that players his size typically struggle to do.”
McQueen participated in all the testing at the NHL Draft combine and is cleared for full activity this summer.
“Being able to come here and have the back issue past me is so nice,” McQueen told reporters at the combine. “Talking to a couple of the doctors I worked with, they don’t see anything (to be concerned with) going forward.”
Brandon Wheat Kings coach Marty Murray praised McQueen’s character and work ethic and thinks some team will be getting a steal.
“The sky is the limit. He’s 6-foot-5. He has a tremendous skill set. He’s shot it like a pro for a couple of years now,” he said. “His ability, with his reach and the quickness of his hands, is quite impressive. Those types of guys don’t come along every day.”
Murray is right. They don’t. If he’s healthy and delivers on that promise, the Bruins don’t want to be the team that passed on him.
If he’s got 15 years of back issues, incomplete seasons and Gord-Kluzak comparisons ahead of him, the Bruins don’t want to be the team that wasted a high pick on him.
The moment of truth is just two days away.