Reading the headline, your mind probably went straight to the time the Montreal Canadiens came back against all odds from 3-1 down to defeat the rival Toronto Maple Leafs in the first round of the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs… en route to an even unlikelier Stanley Cup Final appearance. You’d technically be right, too. However, officially speaking, the Canadiens found themselves down 3-1 against the Tampa Bay Lightning in the championship series too (only to lose in five games).
Admittedly, circumstances are wholly different this time around, as the Canadiens face elimination against the Eastern Conference-leading Washington Capitals on Wednesday night (also now down 3-1, after a heartbreaking loss in Game 4). Against the Lightning, the Habs fell behind 3-0 only to capture Game 4 thanks to Josh Anderson’s overtime heroics… and then face the unenviable task of beating the reigning champs in four straight games total to win it all.
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Keep in mind, due to the pandemic and how the Canadiens had been exiled to the league’s North (Canadian) Division that season, the Habs hadn’t faced the Lightning since 2019-20, when they lost all four of their games to the eventual Stanley Cup champions. In the here and now, just by virtue of the fact the Canadiens know they can hang with the Capitals in any one game (having actually beaten them in impressive fashion not once but twice so far this season and playoffs), they have a distinct advantage relative to where they were, facing an even more daunting challenge four years ago.
Canadiens vs. Capitals
Whether or not the Canadiens accomplish the task ahead of them or not is almost irrelevant. Of course, Habs fans would obviously prefer they move on, in the process vanquishing the Capitals, including Tom “Walking Meme” Wilson, and all they represent as a team based out of the capital city of the U.S.A., considering today’s political climate. However, it’s a process and everyone should have readily acknowledged heading in that knocking off the Caps, who had 20 more point in the standings during the regular season, was always an implausible scenario for one of if not the absolute youngest playoff team(s) in history.
Look to the Capitals themselves as proof to that effect. Last season, they obviously just snuck into the playoffs in Game 82 themselves (with the same 91 points the Canadiens just earned). Following some offseason tinkering, they transformed into a powerhouse.
It’s no exaggeration to suggest the Canadiens are actually in a better position to build something sustainable. Maybe they won’t jump to 111 points in 2026, but you’re looking at a younger core that is coming into its own, when four of the Capitals’ top 10 scorers from this past season are going to be 30 or older.
In comparison, the Canadiens’ top four scorers are going to be 26 or younger. That’s not even including 19-year-old Ivan Demidov, who just joined the team and is projected to have a lasting positive impact on the franchise for the next decade if not longer. In contrast, the career of 39-year-old Alexander Ovechkin, the Capitals’ generational superstar, is winding down as we speak. You can maybe include 20-year-old Ryan Leonard, who similarly just joined the Caps, in the discussion, but the Canadiens also have a healthy pipeline of young talent. So, let’s draw a line somewhere.
Canadiens Poised to Become Cup Contenders
Interestingly, two of the aforementioned top four Canadiens scorers were around for that 2021 Stanley Cup Final defeat to the Lightning: Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield. Anderson, Brendan Gallagher, Jake Evans and Joel Armia round out the six total current Habs who were part of the team. While Evans just re-signed, it’s unlikely the Canadiens keep Armia, who’s a pending unrestricted free agent. Both Anderson and Gallagher have two more years left on their deals.
Montreal Canadiens forward Josh Anderson – (Photo by Mark Blinch/NHLI via Getty Images)
What Canadiens fans are witnessing is a changing of the guard both internally and by all objective accounts externally as well, even assuming the Capitals eliminate the Habs as expected. Ignore the 3-1 deficit for a moment. Consider how close each game the Habs have lost has been in the series. If you legitimately believe the Caps are contenders this season, which is a perfectly legitimate perspective, the Canadiens aren’t that far off… and better positioned to enjoy long-term success from this point on, potentially starting as soon as next season.
That’s another big difference between this series and the Canadiens’ last 3-1 deficit in 2021 (and last series overall). The positives emerging from that defeat simply don’t stack up to those of this hypothetical one this time around. Even upon reaching the Final in 2021, it was well-established then-general manager Marc Bergevin would have his work cut out for him that ensuing offseason to get the team back to the playoffs because of the league’s divisional realignment back to normal. The “retirements” of Carey Price and Shea Weber certainly didn’t help, but play further into the notion the Habs needed to rebuild. That Final was in effect that Canadiens core’s last hurrah.
From the point at which the Canadiens finished in last place in the entire league the next season instead, they’ve experienced linear growth. Fast-forward four years and, in 2025, everyone knows the Habs have what it takes to compete in the Atlantic… and against the league’s elite on any given day. Not for nothing, but, starting on Dec. 3, they went 32-18-8 to earn a .621 points percentage. Pro-rated over 82 games, that puts them in the Top 10 and on par with Colorado Avalanche and, ironically, the Lightning, which is a fairly significant accomplishment. The proper foundation is there, where it hadn’t been before.
Those are each teams the Canadiens have beaten in the regular season. As alluded to earlier, they’ve also beaten the 111-point Capitals. And, theoretically, they can beat the Caps again… even in three straight. After all, while it may not be a perfect comparison, the Maple Leafs were on pace for a 112-point season back in 2021. Now, will lightning strike twice? Maybe… but, even if it doesn’t, the odds are far greater that the Habs will be back as legitimate contenders sooner rather than later.
