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<\/a><\/p>\nTop 10 Scoring Teams + Devils<\/p>\n
The story gets worse for the Devils at 5v5. Aside from Winnipeg (77%), the Devils really lag behind in 5v5 scoring relative to the elite teams in the league (75%). Every other of these teams\u2019 5v5 goal total was at or above 80% of their total scoring.<\/p>\n
5v5 Goal Contributions, Top 10 Scoring Teams + Devils<\/p>\n The Devils scored 179 5v5 goals vs an average of 218 for the top 10 teams, or 2.2 vs 2.7 per game. To truly slide into this elite tier ideally we need to find \u00bd goal per game, or almost 40 more goals next season at 5v5.<\/p>\n Where Do We Find 40 More Goals<\/p>\n Fitz Perhaps Wondering About Depth Scoring Photo by Dave Sandford\/NHLI via Getty Images<\/p>\n First things first, I\u2019m ignoring the D Corps and this comparative analysis is looking exclusively at the forward group. Since it seems we are rolling into the season as is, we need to go to church and pray for upward regression across the board from our current guys: Jack stays healthy, Timo isn\u2019t snakebit, Dawson finds it again, and Jesper adds a few more.<\/p>\n 1\/3 of Jack, Bratt, Nico and Noesen\u2019s goal scoring came on the Power Play, only Vegas and Edmonton\u2019s PP1 units had percentages at or over 30 amongst the top 10 teams. Edmonton has these guys named Connor and Leon that I would describe as a outliers, and what happens in Vegas stays in Vegas.<\/p>\n Percentage of Power Play Goals of Total Goals from The Top Power Play Unit<\/p>\n In a perfect world those 4 on the top unit also add some more 5v5 goal scoring outside of the power play.<\/p>\n Looking at the returning guys that played a full season they collectively shot below expected with Nico and Cotter they only two who were above:<\/p>\n iXG vs GF at 5v5 (Data from Natural Stat Trick)<\/p>\n For context Timo was ranked 7th in even strength xG overall. There are 32 forwards over 20 xG, 115 over 15 xG, and 273 over 10 xG, so all 7 of these returning Devils players fall in the top half of the league at chance generation at even strength.<\/p>\n Obviously they all won\u2019t produce the exact same, but using 24-25 as a barometer if the above players shoot at their expected rates, we are looking at adding 7 additional 5v5 goals.<\/p>\n So, we would need 33 more to get to that 40.<\/p>\n Jack missed a big chunk of the season and Glass was a TDL acquisition, so using the scoring rates for both last season, I am adding 6 for Jack (20 goals in 62 games = 26 over 80) and conservatively adding 9 for Glass (2 goals in 14 games = 11 over 80).<\/p>\n While in church we might as well add a prayer for the addition by subtraction<\/a> to fully work and Gritsyuk to be a thing. With Brown and Dadonov in and the cardio gang out, we are gaining another 6 5v5 goals based on their 24-25 stats. In an effort to stay realistic I will conservatively give Gritsyuk 7 5v5 goals, so an additional 13 from these 3.<\/p>\n Finding the Right Outside Solution<\/p>\n Close, but still below average for that elite tier. That\u2019s also a lot of ifs and maybes, so we all want a new top 6 wing to both help insulate this lineup and help slot some of the supporting cast down the lineup more appropriately. We need to find someone who at a minimum can pot 15-20 5v5 goals and not rely on PP1 time to goose their production. There were 68 players that scored 15-20 5v5 goals last season and 55 of them are not going anywhere or are pure centers (that\u2019s a blog for later, maybe).<\/p>\n Including the rumored guys I mentioned before your legs fell asleep, there are 14 guys that fit this bill:<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n