What I haven\u2019t heard or read much about is how we will know if the Blackhawks \u201ctake the next step\u201d this season. How do we measure that beyond the eye test, beyond a gut feeling?<\/p>\n
Here are four Blackhawks statistics from the 2024-25 season that the team must improve, along with my prediction of whether they will.<\/p>\n
Wins<\/p>\n
Let\u2019s start with the obvious: Wins.<\/p>\n
More wins mean improvement\u2014that\u2019s the clearest indicator we will have. The Blackhawks finished second-worst in the league with 25 wins last season, an abysmal .372 winning percentage.<\/p>\n
The Blackhawks last eclipsed 30 wins during the shortened 2019-20 season, although the team\u2019s .491 winning percentage in the shortened 56-game season in 2020-21 would\u2019ve seen them finish with 40 wins. Regardless, they have finished with 26, 23, and 25 wins the last three seasons, undoubtedly the most difficult of this rebuild.<\/p>\n<\/p>\n
How many wins this season is realistic? The buzz around the team is positive. Connor Bedard enters his third season looking bigger and stronger. Frank Nazar signed a long-term contract this summer allowing him to focus on improving. Sam Rinzel<\/a> will attempt to pick up where he left off after a short but impressive stint with the Blackhawks last season. Prospects like Nick Lardis aim to earn a spot<\/a> and prove how they fit into the rebuild.<\/p>\n But will that be enough to win more games?<\/p>\n Yes, it will, and here\u2019s why.<\/p>\n The reins have been handed over to the young players entirely. Sure, veterans like captain Nick Foligno and Connor Murphy will play and lead, but, unlike last season, there aren\u2019t any older players taking up roster spots. The competition will ignite fires in the players and the team as they identify and seize their opportunities.<\/p>\n Don\u2019t expect 40 or 50 wins. But at least 30 is possible. In fact, if I may be so bold, I\u2019m expecting 33 wins this season. That\u2019s eight more than last season with at least a 16-point improvement. That isn\u2019t the most exciting improvement, but there will be growing pains as new head coach Jeff Blashill implements his systems and the young guns adjust to NHL hockey.<\/p>\n But it is improvement.<\/p>\n Goals For<\/p>\n To win, you need to score goals (my incisive NHL coverage continues, I know. Hold the applause). To say the Blackhawks have struggled to score is as obvious as saying don\u2019t drink out of the Chicago River on St. Patrick\u2019s Day (or any day, really).<\/p>\n The Blackhawks scored 226 goals last season, seventh-worst in the league. That was a marked improvement compared to the 2023-24 season, when the team scored a paltry 179 goals. But the team has finished with the fewest goals scored in two of the past three seasons.<\/p>\n Connor Bedard is on the board \ud83d\udea8<\/p>\n Let’s hear your predictions for how many goals he’ll score this season! pic.twitter.com\/K8kXJRkywY<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 NHL (@NHL) September 24, 2025<\/a> <\/p>\n The infusion of young talent should help the Blackhawks score more. Bedard will lead that charge.<\/a> Lardis, if he makes the roster, proved he can score after netting 71 goals in the Ontario Hockey League last season. As defensemen like Rinzel and Artyom Levshunov <\/a>become more comfortable, their playmaking abilities will show whether by scoring themselves or setting up the forwards.<\/p>\n The pieces are there. And, as I wrote above, the drive and compete should be too.<\/p>\n Prediction? Let\u2019s see if the Blackhawks can eclipse 250 goals for this season. That would most likely place them in the top half of the league. And that jump would prove not only that players are rising to the challenge but also that the team clicked on more cylinders than last season (e.g. the power play).<\/p>\n Goals Against<\/p>\n To continue my brilliant insight, it doesn\u2019t matter how many goals you score if you allow more. Unfortunately, the Blackhawks didn\u2019t improve in this category as they did in scoring last season.<\/p>\n The team allowed 296 goals last season, second-worst in the NHL. That was six more goals against than the 2023-24 season. The good news is that the team\u2019s goal differential remained the same at minus-70 between the two seasons. Well, I don\u2019t know if that\u2019s good news, but at least the increased scoring helped cancel out some of the goals against.<\/p>\n This stat proves why we are looking at a host of different numbers here. How many goals the Blackhawks allow is the second-most significant indicator of improvement or lack thereof.<\/p>\n The Blackhawks fielded a young team last season that struggled defensively. From implementing systems to staying fresh throughout the 82-game grind, the fact is the Blackhawks haven\u2019t had the NHL experience to compete for an entire 60 minutes. Anyone who watched a game last season often saw two entirely different teams throughout a game<\/a>, switching into a higher gear too late in the third period or falling asleep after showing flashes of what could be in the first two periods.<\/p>\n While the team will be one year older, I\u2019m not convinced they\u2019re going to take that next step defensively, the step that separates the boys from the men.<\/p>\n However, there are reasons for optimism. Goaltender Spencer Knight will suit up for his first full season in the net. Blashill will emphasize the small details of the game\u2014stick checking, back checking, and not cheating in the defensive zone\u2014that too often went by the wayside. And he\u2019ll hold the players accountable for a lack of effort.<\/p>\n Chicago head coach Jeff Blashill instructs his team twice to skate to the boards and back after some sloppy passes before blowing his whistle and screaming: \u201cWe\u2019ve got to get better today with passing!\u201d<\/p>\n They responded below with a clean passing drill, no mess-ups. #Blackhawks<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/rJBtGPHErh<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 Charlie Roumeliotis (@CRoumeliotis) September 26, 2025<\/a> <\/p>\n This is what you want to see from a head coach: a higher standard being set. Unfortunately, practices are not games, and there\u2019s a certain amount of experience that can only be imbued through regular season games. (Relatedly, the same is true of playoff games and regular season games; that\u2019s why many teams that win the Stanley Cup recently lost in the Final.)<\/p>\n The Blackhawks still need some of that experience before they will drastically improve defensively. For that reason and more, I expect the goals against to improve slightly but not as drastically as we want. Let\u2019s say the 270s.<\/p>\n Faceoff Winning Percentage<\/p>\n The ability to win a faceoff is often underappreciated. Greats like Sidney Crosby worked relentlessly to become dominant, and even he only wins about 53% of the draws he takes.<\/p>\n Faceoffs require a blend of skill, strength, and hockey IQ that takes time to hone. It\u2019s a fine detail of the game that many talented forwards don\u2019t have to focus on before they make it to the NHL. But when you\u2019re in the NHL, and every player is good at almost everything, you focus on the areas that will give you an edge\u2014something that takes time and patience to master.<\/p>\n Connor Bedard is now working with Foligno, but on faceoffs \u2014 not fighting https:\/\/t.co\/u4BpIVgieL<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/vLEhycolCt<\/a><\/p>\n \u2014 BHF (@BlackhawksFocus) September 27, 2025<\/a> <\/p>\n This explains why the Blackhawks finished with the second-worst faceoff percentage last season (44.8%). The two oldest (officially listed) centermen last season were Jason Dickinson and Teuvo Teravainen. The rest were hardly more than 20.<\/p>\n How the Blackhawks fared in faceoffs is an under-the-radar indicator of their youth and inexperience. Of course, winning faceoffs doesn\u2019t guarantee success (the New York Islanders finished with the best percentage last season and didn\u2019t make the playoffs). But the top ten teams<\/a> were in the hunt for a playoff spot or contending in the playoffs.<\/p>\n That\u2019s because winning faceoffs requires strength and maturity that the Blackhawks didn\u2019t have. This season, I expect that number to increase. Players like Bedard realize how important these details are and have worked on improving.<\/p>\n The number won\u2019t spike to over 50%, but I won\u2019t be surprised if it goes up a few percentage points. Let\u2019s call it somewhere between 47% and 48%.<\/p>\n The Numbers Don\u2019t Lie (Usually)<\/p>\n Hockey is a combination of statistics and human will. The statistics measure trends and help us understand what\u2019s happening and why. The human will breaks those trends and proves no player is bound by numbers.<\/p>\n What the Blackhawks achieve this season will depend on whether the team has the willpower and work ethic to improve the above statistics. They have the talent and experience to do so in some areas, while in others, I\u2019m not so sure.<\/p>\n Either way, the Blackhawks will be judged by the numbers. Whether the players rise to that occasion or not is the question.<\/p>\n <\/p>\n <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a> <\/a>![\"Spencer](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/07\/Spencer-Knight-Blackhawks-1200x848.jpg\")
Spencer Knight enters the 2025-26 season with high hopes after signing a three-year contract extension. (Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images)<\/p>\n![\"Substack](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/Substack_Banner_Teams_CHI-1200x122.jpg\")
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