On the not-so-good side, I\u2019m a bit concerned about how the Kings have started.\u00a0 I wasn\u2019t down on their summer as much as some were as while there were some veteran overpayments, their depth was still pretty good.\u00a0 Now, they lost five of six to start and have had a hard time scoring and keeping pucks out of the net.\u00a0 That\u2019s not a good combination.\u00a0 Now, they\u2019re without Anze Kopitar<\/a> for a while which isn\u2019t going to help things.\u00a0 They look more vulnerable than I thought they\u2019d be.\u00a0 Dustin Wolf<\/a>\u2019s start in Calgary isn\u2019t particularly confidence-inspiring either.\u00a0 He was a big reason they were more competitive than expected last season; if he can\u2019t perform at a similar level this year, they\u2019re in a lot of trouble.<\/p>\n random comment guy: I was reading on here that the Sharks would like to obtain younger D-men. The Hawks have a fair amount of younger D-men. Do you see any type of trade in the future and who would be involved?<\/p>\n Chicago feels like a good fit if San Jose decides it wants to add some other young defensemen to the mix in the hopes of seeing if one or two pan out.\u00a0 The idea is basically to take a few dart throws and see what happens but when they\u2019re not going to be going anywhere this season in the standings, I like the idea in principle.<\/p>\n As you correctly noted, the Blackhawks have a surplus of blueliners.\u00a0 Of the six NHL-contracted blueliners they have in the minors, three have seen action at the top level and not just a token game; they\u2019ve all played at least 27 NHL contests.\u00a0 Kevin Korchinski<\/a> is the most prominent of the trio but I don\u2019t get the sense that Chicago is willing to sell low on him.\u00a0 Instead, they\u2019d rather have him play big minutes in Rockford and then have him full-time on the NHL roster next season when he\u2019s waiver-eligible.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think they want to move Ethan Del Mastro<\/a> just yet either.<\/p>\n The other one is Nolan Allan<\/a> and I could see Chicago GM Kyle Davidson look to salvage something.\u00a0 While he played 43 NHL games last season, he struggled in a limited role and has likely slipped behind those two on the prospect depth chart, not to mention Alex Vlasic<\/a> and Wyatt Kaiser<\/a> being ahead of him in Chicago as well.\u00a0 In a best-case scenario then, he might be their eighth defender next season.\u00a0 That\u2019s a terrible spot for a prospect to be in and their value typically drops quickly after that.\u00a0 If San Jose wants to get a look at him, it won\u2019t be overly cheap (I could see the cost being a second-round pick or equivalent prospect value) but if they feel he has some upside and staying power, it\u2019d be a move worth attempting.<\/p>\n gowings2008: Any rumors of Erik Karlsson<\/a> to the Wings? Or are the summer rumors dead?<\/p>\n Speaking of those Red Wings\u2026\u00a0 There aren\u2019t any credible rumors linking Karlsson to Detroit at the moment or anywhere really.\u00a0 We\u2019re still in the early goings of the season when teams are still trying to establish what they have, what they need, and what they could possibly get rid of.\u00a0 While Pittsburgh is in a spot where they know that moving Karlsson is likely the desired long-term outcome, a $10MM cap charge is still something they\u2019re going to have to navigate.<\/p>\n If the Red Wings find themselves in the mix in the second half, I could see them taking a run at this, assuming Karlsson is amenable to going there.\u00a0 Slotting him on the second pairing behind Moritz Seider<\/a> could allow Sandin Pellikka to play on the third pair and get eased in a bit more, or even return to the minors if they want to maximize his playing time.\u00a0 Notably, they also have the cap space to take on the full freight of the contract, something that can\u2019t be said for a lot of teams.\u00a0 But for now, they need to see what they have and see if this hot start can be sustained before looking into a big splash on the trade front.<\/p>\n Black Ace57: How many times will history be allowed to repeat itself with the Sabres with no real change? I mean more than trading the next Cozens. I know it\u2019s early, but it feels different this year with the losing already becoming an issue.<\/p>\n It feels like there\u2019s a little more urgency this season as at some point, the status quo can\u2019t just keep happening.\u00a0 At this point, a decision needs to be made about GM Kevyn Adams.\u00a0 Considering the Dylan Cozens<\/a> trade looks like a tough loss already, is he the one you\u2019re going to trust to make the type of shakeup move(s) needed?\u00a0 That could entail yet another coaching change, a big core trade, or starting over (I\u2019ll look at each of those options shortly).\u00a0 If Adams gets the vote of confidence, let him take the big swing or two.<\/p>\n But if not, they do have a \u2018kick the can down the road\u2019 card to play in Jarmo Kekalainen.\u00a0 The former Columbus GM is now a senior advisor and if it\u2019s decided a change needs to be made, put him in as a caretaker, assess, make some minor moves where needed, and then determine in the spring if he\u2019s the guy to go with moving forward or conduct a more thorough search.\u00a0 That\u2019s the safe route to play.\u00a0 Frankly, it\u2019s the route I think they\u2019ll take if they decide to let Adams go.\u00a0 It\u2019s probably not the best route to take but I think they\u2019re going to be risk-averse at this point, for better or worse (and likely the latter).<\/p>\n Jaysen: Though I am not a Sabres fan, over the years I did enjoy watching some of their players. However, I am just baffled by how bad they are doing year after year, and it\u2019s not like they don\u2019t have solid, young players.<\/p>\n So, my question to you is: you are the owner. It\u2019s another bad start to the season. What option would you choose, and would you proceed?<\/p>\n 1) Let\u2019s fire the coach and the GM, like we seem to be doing every two years.<\/p>\n 2) Shocking trade to shake up the room and the players.<\/p>\n 3) You decide to embark on a true, tear-down, management-to-players rebuild, a la Montreal Canadiens.<\/p>\n I\u2019d be curious to know which option you would choose, of course, but also if you wouldn\u2019t mind giving me your opinion on the other two options.<\/p>\n I\u2019m going to answer this a bit of a different way than you intended but I will touch base on all three options after.<\/p>\n If I were the owner, I\u2019d be making considerable efforts to invest in organizational infrastructure.\u00a0 While a lot of teams\u2019 spending in these areas isn\u2019t known, Buffalo is believed to be particularly thrifty on the scouting front and put a more restrictive budget a couple of years ago with AHL Rochester.\u00a0 Their front office is much leaner than most as well.\u00a0 Buffalo is in a division with some top-spending teams.\u00a0 Trying to pinch pennies is not a recipe for success and I think that\u2019s part of the problem.<\/p>\n One element that they need is a dedicated President of Hockey Operations.\u00a0 Someone who knows what a good organizational structure and budget entails and can begin to implement that immediately upon hire.\u00a0 Once that hire has assessed the state of the franchise, they pick which is the best course out of those three options to take, and that\u2019s the one I go with.<\/p>\n Now, since you asked me to comment on the three options, I\u2019ll weigh in quickly on each of them independently.<\/p>\n 1) I never like speculating about firing people but Adams\u2019 five-year tenure as GM has not been particularly confidence-inspiring.\u00a0 There\u2019s a direction in place \u2013 they\u2019re trying to win \u2013 but they\u2019re not very successful at it.\u00a0 The lack of proper coaching search before bringing Lindy Ruff back was a huge red flag for me as well.\u00a0 I have a hard time seeing Adams turning things around significantly at this point so my leaning would be looking into a change but again, at this point of the year, that\u2019s moving Kekalainen (whose track record isn\u2019t the best either) into the interim role.\u00a0 Let whoever takes over as GM make the decision on Ruff\u2019s fate.<\/p>\n 2) They may have to do that if they can\u2019t reach an extension with Alex Tuch<\/a>.\u00a0 They simply can\u2019t let him walk in free agency with no return.\u00a0 If an extension can\u2019t be reached, they have no choice to move him and that type of move in March will be for futures.\u00a0 I also think something will eventually happen on the back end, possibly with Bowen Byram<\/a> if it\u2019s believed that he won\u2019t sign a long-term deal when he becomes extension-eligible next summer.\u00a0 They may not want to go that route but circumstances may force their hand anyway.\u00a0 They could be an interesting team to watch on the trade front this season if they\u2019re out of contention after the Olympic break.<\/p>\n 3) Buffalo has a 14-season playoff drought and hasn\u2019t won a series in 18 years.\u00a0 Boy, another extended rebuild would be a tough sell.\u00a0 I\u2019m starting to come around on it possibly being the best option although I still have more faith in most with this core group.\u00a0 On paper, it\u2019s not half bad and good enough to at least be competitive.\u00a0 But if their hands get forced with Tuch and Byram (and perhaps others thereafter), they may get dragged in this direction willingly or otherwise.<\/p>\n Rollie\u2019s Mustache: Who will be the first player to sign a contract with an AAV of $20 million?<\/p>\n I had this question a little over a year ago<\/a> back when the projected increases to the salary cap weren\u2019t known.\u00a0 I was being on the safer side with the projections but back then, I had the cap around $106.7MM in 2027-28 when it looks like it\u2019ll be $113.5MM or so.\u00a0 My thought was that the Upper Limit needed to get to $120MM for a $20MM cap charge to be viable as the cap percentage would be around the 15% or so mark which is where some of the elite players land.\u00a0 My planning had that happening in 2029-30, ruling out some obvious options.\u00a0 Now, that could plausibly happen in 2028-29, opening up some options.<\/p>\n If Cale Makar<\/a> decides he wants to test the open market in 2027, I could see him at least flirting with that number.\u00a0 Having said that, I expect him to re-sign with Colorado.\u00a0 Auston Matthews<\/a> is UFA-eligible the following year and went short-term on purpose on his last deal to set him up for a big pay day.\u00a0 If he\u2019s looking to maximize his earnings, I think there are teams that would go that high for a top-line, high-scoring center.\u00a0 That said, I think he eventually re-signs with Toronto.<\/p>\n If I have to pick a player, it\u2019d be one of them.\u00a0 I mused a year ago about Connor Bedard<\/a> possibly getting there if he didn\u2019t sign a max-term deal coming off his entry-level contract but that\u2019s forecasting him becoming the franchise number one center he\u2019s supposed to be, a level he has a long way to go to reach still.\u00a0 If you look at the youngster class in recent years, their UFA years don\u2019t start until the early 2030s and their extra-pricey deals wouldn\u2019t come until closer to the end of that decade.\u00a0 Kirill Kaprizov<\/a> really moved the needle with a $17MM per season contract but I think we\u2019re still a long way from getting to $20MM.<\/p>\n Photo courtesy of\u00a0Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include some early-season surprises, what\u2019s next for the Sabres, 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<\/a>For Detroit, they still need to evaluate their young back end.\u00a0 Can they rely on Axel Sandin Pellikka<\/a> all season?\u00a0 Can they count on more from Albert Johansson<\/a>?\u00a0 Could Jacob Bernard-Docker<\/a> be a regular after bouncing in and out of the lineup in Ottawa?\u00a0 The answers to those questions will help determine if they want to pursue him, as will their position in the standings.<\/p>\n