{"id":269018,"date":"2025-10-27T04:36:10","date_gmt":"2025-10-27T04:36:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/269018\/"},"modified":"2025-10-27T04:36:10","modified_gmt":"2025-10-27T04:36:10","slug":"wild-sharks-third-lines-goaltending-moves-draft","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/269018\/","title":{"rendered":"Wild, Sharks, Third Lines, Goaltending Moves, Draft"},"content":{"rendered":"

Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include San Jose\u2019s rebuild, speculating about teams that could make a goalie move, and more.\u00a0 If your question doesn\u2019t appear here, check back in last weekend\u2019s column<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Zakis: How does the Wild figure out 5-on-5 scoring?<\/p>\n

A lot of it is just going to be patience.\u00a0 They\u2019ve been hovering around a shooting percentage of five at full strength this season.\u00a0 That\u2019s bound to improve on its own as even bad teams are closer to seven at the end of a year.<\/p>\n

There are a couple of ways to improve scoring at five-on-five and neither of them are easy.\u00a0 The first is upgrading their playmaking, especially down the middle.\u00a0 GM Bill Guerin has been trying to do that for years without much success.\u00a0 (He\u2019s hardly the only one who has struggled in this regard either.)\u00a0 That\u2019s going to be tough to do in-season.<\/p>\n

The other is play with more tempo and try to generate more odd-man rush chances.\u00a0 The problem is that Minnesota isn\u2019t particularly young and a lot of their veterans aren\u2019t known as high-end skaters.\u00a0 Beyond Kirill Kaprizov<\/a>\u2019s line, they\u2019re built to play a little slower.\u00a0 That might work in the playoffs when the checking and whistles are tighter but in the regular season, it\u2019s bit trickier.\u00a0 Ideally, prospects like Danila Yurov<\/a> and Liam Ohgren<\/a> playing their way into bigger roles would help but that, again, takes patience.\u00a0 But in terms of short-term fixes, I don\u2019t see a viable way for them to significantly change their fortunes on that front and that\u2019s why they\u2019re going to be viewed as more of a bubble team than a contender.<\/p>\n

PyramidHeadcrab: It\u2019s looking like Sharks fans are going to have to strap in for another rough season.<\/p>\n

We know the Sharks have been building top-shelf assets (Celebrini, Askarov, Misa, Graf, et al), but how long do complete rebuilds like this typically last?<\/p>\n

In watching their first few games, I am seeing a team that is completely disorganized, with players being consistently out of position \u2013 Celebrini making a tremendous play with no one in position to receive a pass, for instance. There\u2019s the cliche of \u201cveterans mentioning The Youth\u2122\u201d but experienced players like Klingberg, Kurashev, and Goodrow are consistently playing poorly.<\/p>\n

At what point do you know if the plan is working, and when do the stars typically align for a team like this to turn the corner on being successful?<\/p>\n

And as a brief addendum \u2013 the lack of a net-crashing power forward to kite attention from the opposing D is glaring; is there anyone in the Sharks system that could fill this role eventually? Are there any top prospects for the \u201926 draft that could fit this bill?<\/p>\n

There aren\u2019t a lot of examples of the \u2018burn it to the ground and build back slowly\u2019 rebuild to compare to here.\u00a0 These types of undertakings haven\u2019t gained a lot of popularity until the last decade or so.\u00a0 Sure, there have been rebuilds with an eye on them taking a few years but few have been to quite this extent.<\/p>\n

The best option I can think of is the one that\u2019s still ongoing in Utah.\u00a0 I remember reading something a few years ago about how long he envisioned his rebuild being and it was something like eight or ten years for the full process to take place.\u00a0 He mentioned last year in an interview with KSL Sports (video link<\/a>) that competing for a playoff spot in the fifth season was a realistic target.<\/p>\n

So, where are the Sharks in this?\u00a0 While they\u2019ve missed the postseason in six straight years, it was really only the 2023-24 season where they got serious about it.\u00a0 Erik Karlsson<\/a> went that offseason, Tomas Hertl<\/a> at the deadline, and some youngsters (William Eklund<\/a> and Fabian Zetterlund<\/a>) got big minutes.\u00a0 You could argue 2022-23 was the start when Timo Meier<\/a> moved but that was done late in the year.\u00a0 Basically, they\u2019re around the halfway mark before that \u2018playoffs in five years\u2019 goal.\u00a0 With the pieces they\u2019re collecting, I think they\u2019re on the right track and I could see them getting there at the back end of that timeframe.<\/p>\n

As I\u2019ve noted before, scouting is not my forte so I could be wrong on this but from what I have seen with some of their top prospects, I don\u2019t really see someone who can be that type of player, at least consistently.\u00a0 Looking at the top of this year\u2019s class, Ethan Belchetz<\/a> might fit the bill but as is always the case with power forward prospects, there\u2019s a difference between being that type of player in junior versus being that type of player in the NHL.<\/p>\n

At this point of the rebuild, the focus is asset acquisition and getting as many pieces in place as possible.\u00a0 Once that first wave of prospects is established, then they could start to get a little pickier or use some later-round picks on more aggressive boom\/bust selections to try to find a certain type of player that they lack in their system.\u00a0 I\u2019d say they\u2019re getting closer to that part and it wouldn\u2019t shock me to see them try to address that.<\/p>\n

PyramidHeadcrab: I\u2019m legitimately confused at how Barclay Goodrow<\/a> hasn\u2019t been bought out yet. The only way that makes sense is a) it\u2019s a verbal promise to be like, \u201csorry for screwing you over\u201d, or b) they REALLY want to keep those retention slots open.<\/p>\n

But in that case, why not bury him in the A and just eat the contract? Like it\u2019s a real head-scratcher for me.<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think it\u2019s the first option.\u00a0 While San Jose is likely operating with some respect befitting a longer-term veteran, if they felt they had to get him off the roster, they\u2019d probably do it.\u00a0 There might be a bit of validity to Option B.\u00a0 They only have one salary retention slot available to them.\u00a0 That\u2019s not just for this season but 2026-27 as well with Karlsson signed until then.\u00a0 The other one doesn\u2019t unlock until after the 2029-30 campaign.\u00a0 Adding Goodrow \u2013 who is also signed through 2026-27 \u2013 to the mix means they\u2019re out of retention options until July 2027.\u00a0 That\u2019s not ideal.\u00a0 I\u2019d be saving that one for the trade deadline, potentially for Alexander Wennberg<\/a> to maximize the return for him.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a>When the Sharks orchestrated the waiver claim situation to ensure they got him around 15 months ago, they knew (or reasonably ought to have known) that his best on-ice days were behind him.\u00a0 I don\u2019t think they brought him in thinking that he\u2019d give the bottom six a big boost (mind you, they were probably hoping he\u2019d be at least a little better than this).\u00a0 I suspect he was viewed as more of a character addition.\u00a0 In essence, that cliched mentoring idea you mentioned in the initial question.<\/p>\n

If they think they need a roster spot, he\u2019s someone who would safely clear waivers if it came to that.\u00a0 He\u2019d still probably come back after the trade deadline when there isn\u2019t a roster maximum though.\u00a0 This could be something they look at in the summer though.\u00a0 They wouldn\u2019t save a ton of money on a buyout since a decent chunk of his salary is in a signing bonus but if he\u2019s done all he can do for them, I could see them buying him out to give him a chance to try to catch on elsewhere, likely for the league minimum.\u00a0 But for now, I expect he\u2019ll stay up for the rest of the season.<\/p>\n

frozenaquatic: Thanks again for putting these together! The last six Cup winners have had depth in common, running out four lines that grind down opponents. I know bottom sixes are deployed differently (and also are more easily shuffled\u2013though the best bottom sixes have chemistry and identity), but they\u2019re usually a combo of grit and timely tertiary scoring. In your view, who has the most effective 3rd line in the league to start 2025? What\u2019s the worst 3rd line on a supposed contender? Would you say Taylor Hall<\/a>\u2019s 4th line is the best? Who has the weakest 4th line?<\/p>\n

Speaking of how quickly lines can be shuffled, Hall now finds himself in the top six in Carolina so he\u2019s technically out of the equation for now.\u00a0 And best is in the eye of the beholder.\u00a0 If you\u2019re looking squarely at results, the answer could be one way.\u00a0 If you\u2019re looking at overall effectiveness (or maybe trying to quantify it using Expected Goals), it\u2019s going to be a different answer.<\/p>\n

Colorado\u2019s third line is a bit of an odd mishmash of players but it seems to be working.\u00a0 Ross Colton<\/a> has been there for a while now while Jack Drury<\/a> came in early last season.\u00a0 They both have some defensive skills but their linemate, Victor Olofsson<\/a>, is more of an offense-only player, making the trio a bit of an odd combination.\u00a0 However, it has worked early on with a 64.5 Expected Goals Percentage, per MoneyPuck<\/a> despite close to a 50\/50 split in zone starts.\u00a0 They\u2019re not scoring much but they\u2019re not getting scored on either.\u00a0 That\u2019s a quietly effective line.\u00a0 On the flip side, Nashville\u2019s third line of Michael Bunting<\/a>, Erik Haula<\/a>, and Jonathan Marchessault<\/a> looks quite good on paper but is struggling considerably defensively with the lowest xGF% of any line with at least 45 minutes of time together so far.<\/p>\n

Fourth lines are a lot harder to quantify as they often change from one game to the next between injuries and line shuffling.\u00a0 As a result, there are very few who have played together enough to glean any sort of meaningful information from.\u00a0 For context, if I use that 45 minutes played as a cutoff, it looks like there are only three lines that would even qualify.\u00a0 That\u2019s not enough to really be able to accurately answer that question this early in the season.<\/p>\n

ljfranker: What are some goaltending changes you expect to see this season?<\/p>\n

History suggests that we won\u2019t see too many changes as goalies don\u2019t move in-season anywhere near the extent that skaters do.\u00a0 I doubt this year will be much of an exception.\u00a0 But that\u2019s not an exciting answer so I\u2019ll give you a few things I could see happening, just that the odds of all of them happening are low.<\/p>\n

Oilers: At some point, Connor Ingram<\/a> works his way onto Edmonton\u2019s roster, likely at the expense of Calvin Pickard<\/a>.\u00a0 I thought his acquisition from Utah was a great move, especially for the low, low price of absolutely nothing (future considerations) despite there being salary retention.\u00a0 I think he can raise the floor of their goaltending and if all went well, push Stuart Skinner<\/a>.\u00a0 With the Oilers not having a lot of wiggle room to try to improve their roster, this is one thing I expect them to do.<\/p>\n

Sabres: Their claiming of Colten Ellis<\/a> came as a surprise given the depth that they have and that Devon Levi<\/a> is still viewed as part of their long-term plans.\u00a0 If they\u2019re pleased with what Ellis is showing in practice, Alex Lyon<\/a> could become expendable.\u00a0 At $1.5MM per season through 2026-27, he\u2019d be an affordable dart throw for a team to take, especially one that gets hit with a longer-term injury.<\/p>\n

Bargain Hunters: While it\u2019s early, the gamble Ottawa made going with Leevi Merilainen<\/a> isn\u2019t exactly confidence-inspiring and Mads Sogaard<\/a> may have plateaued.\u00a0 For a team with playoff aspirations, they can\u2019t afford to stick that out if Merilainen keeps struggling while Linus Ullmark<\/a> doesn\u2019t typically carry a huge workload.\u00a0 I think they\u2019ll be looking around at options soon.\u00a0 We\u2019ve seen speculation of Calgary sniffing around the market and that they might not trust Devin Cooley<\/a> to be a full-time NHL backup so they\u2019ll probably keep doing that.\u00a0 I also wonder about Florida.\u00a0 If Daniil Tarasov<\/a> winds up being more of a mediocre option, I could see them exploring what\u2019s out there.\u00a0 With the injuries they have, getting a more proven piece to stabilize the backup games could be crucial.<\/p>\n

Breakaway: The 2026 draft is supposed deeper and has more high-end talent. Schaefer and Misa were considered the consensus top picks in 2025. If they were coming out this year, would they be the 2nd and 3rd picks or would they fall farther down? After those two, there was a gap in talent, where would the rest of the top five fall if they were coming out in 2026?<\/p>\n

One of the challenges with an exercise like this is that what teams hold those draft picks ultimately does a lot to dictate who goes where.\u00a0 What\u2019s the player type they\u2019re looking for?\u00a0 It\u2019s not always a case of Best Player Available (or teams have had some very different opinions on BPAs from the consensus top of the class).\u00a0 But I\u2019ll give it a shot.<\/p>\n

Gavin McKenna<\/a> goes first and there\u2019s probably not much to explain there.\u00a0 I do think Matthew Schaefer<\/a> would go second and I\u2019d say that without factoring in his start with the Islanders.\u00a0 A young 18 for his draft class, he\u2019s a high-ceiling all situations number one defender.\u00a0 That will always go high.\u00a0 Keaton Verhoeff<\/a> could change that with a big year in college (especially as a righty) but failing that, Schaefer lands ahead of him.<\/p>\n

For Michael Misa<\/a> versus Ivar Stenberg<\/a>, what\u2019s the need?\u00a0 If it\u2019s a pure shooter (or a team really wants a center), it\u2019s Misa.\u00a0 If it\u2019s a setup guy, it\u2019s Stenberg.\u00a0 I\u2019d lean toward Misa myself so he\u2019d be fourth.\u00a0 I\u2019d have Anton Frondell<\/a> next at five, then Stenberg at six, assuming his development goes as planned this season.<\/p>\n

Then we go back to centers with Caleb Desnoyers<\/a> (fourth to Utah) and Ryan Roobroeck<\/a>, draft-eligible this year.\u00a0 Today, I\u2019d give the nod to Desnoyers but with this season barely underway, that could easily change.<\/p>\n

Brady Martin<\/a> is the ultimate wild card.\u00a0 Given his power forward style of play, it\u2019s entirely plausible to me that a team could see this combined group and still pick him fifth.\u00a0 I could also see him fall out of the top ten and it wouldn\u2019t surprise me.\u00a0 It all comes down to who has the picks and what their team needs are.\u00a0 Chances are that he\u2019d still sneak into the back of the top ten with that playoff-profile skillset.<\/p>\n

Photo courtesy of \u2026\u2026\u2026.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Topics in this edition of the PHR Mailbag include San Jose\u2019s rebuild, speculating about teams that could make…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":269019,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[5,4,860,697],"class_list":{"0":"post-269018","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nhl","8":"tag-hockey","9":"tag-nhl","10":"tag-phr-mailbag","11":"tag-pro-hockey-rumors-originals"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269018","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=269018"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/269018\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/269019"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=269018"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=269018"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=269018"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}