{"id":357937,"date":"2025-12-15T22:51:12","date_gmt":"2025-12-15T22:51:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/357937\/"},"modified":"2025-12-15T22:51:12","modified_gmt":"2025-12-15T22:51:12","slug":"golden-knights-have-been-unlucky-when-tied-lucky-when-behind","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/357937\/","title":{"rendered":"Golden Knights Have Been Unlucky When Tied, Lucky When Behind"},"content":{"rendered":"

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(Photo Credit: @vegasgoldenknights on Instagram)<\/p>\n

Analytically, the Golden Knights are one of the best teams in the NHL. They have allowed the fewest high-danger chances of any team in the league, which has translated to the fewest expected goals against. Their overall expected goal share is 54.4%, which is 4th best, and they are top 10 in Corsi (8th), Fenwick (6th), and scoring chance share (6th).<\/p>\n

The eye test seems to be telling a slightly different story, though. Despite sitting atop the Pacific Division alone with a stellar .661 points percentage, the overall record of 16 wins and 15 losses has many feeling like the season has been going just okay, rather than excellent, as the numbers suggest.<\/p>\n

There may be a simple explanation for this phenomenon. It\u2019s all about the scoreboard.<\/p>\n

All of the stats above are calculated for all situations in all games for every minute the Golden Knights have been on the ice. When they\u2019re broken down, it makes a bit more sense.<\/p>\n

The Golden Knights have scored 95 goals this season while allowing 87. This is slightly different than the goal differential number in the standings because that awards a goal for a shootout win or loss, which Vegas are 1-3 in. A +8 mark is pretty good, but nowhere near competing with Colorado (+58), Washington (+27), Tampa Bay (+22), or Dallas (+21). The big reason for this is conversion.<\/p>\n

The advanced numbers have the Golden Knights expected to have scored 99.6 while allowing just 83.5. That\u2019s a +16, which is much more in line with the league\u2019s elites.<\/p>\n

This is where the scoreboard comes in.<\/p>\n

When the game is tied, as is the case to begin every game, VGK simply aren\u2019t finishing anywhere near the expected rate. They\u2019re expected to have scored 35 goals but have actually only scored 28. On the flip side, they\u2019ve been expected to give up 29 but have actually given up 37.<\/p>\n

So, when tied, the expected goal differential is +6 while the actual is -9. That\u2019s a massive difference, and it\u2019s why the Golden Knights have been behind so often.<\/p>\n

Once they\u2019re behind, though, the numbers flip. When trailing, VGK are expected to have a +5 goal differential, but they\u2019ve actually outscored opponents 38-23 for a +15.<\/p>\n

When tied, Vegas\u2019 shooting percentage is a paltry 7.8%, literally the worst mark in the league. Once they\u2019re behind, that number bumps up to 11.8%, the league\u2019s 7th best mark, which means a goal on every 8.5 shots rather than every 12.8 shots. And to make matters even better, unsurprisingly, the Golden Knights shoot much more when they are behind compared to when the score is tied.<\/p>\n

They average 58 shot attempts and 26 shots on goal when it\u2019s tied, compared to 65 shot attempts and 31 shots on goal when behind. (Normalized per 60 stats)<\/p>\n

This is why, as a fan, it feels like they aren\u2019t playing as well as they actually are. Even though they\u2019ve played better according to advanced stats when the game is tied, more often than not, the actual goals result in deficits, which they then erase, and the process starts over.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s possible this all evens itself out as the season goes on, which would mean more leads and fewer comebacks, but there\u2019s also a chance VGK\u2019s pass-first style is causing this. When the scoreboard says they don\u2019t need a goal, they look for the perfect opportunity, while when they have to get one to get back in the game, they\u2019re more willing to shoot.<\/p>\n

Either way, maybe it\u2019ll stop messing with our heads now that we have a little more context.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"(Photo Credit: @vegasgoldenknights on Instagram) Analytically, the Golden Knights are one of the best teams in the NHL.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":357938,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3],"tags":[24537,5,4],"class_list":{"0":"post-357937","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nhl","8":"tag-advanced-stats","9":"tag-hockey","10":"tag-nhl"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/115726036828708289","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/357937","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=357937"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/357937\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/357938"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=357937"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=357937"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=357937"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}