{"id":387773,"date":"2026-01-03T03:28:17","date_gmt":"2026-01-03T03:28:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/387773\/"},"modified":"2026-01-03T03:28:17","modified_gmt":"2026-01-03T03:28:17","slug":"2026-world-juniors-predictions-quarterfinal-matchups-who-medals-and-whos-relegated","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/387773\/","title":{"rendered":"2026 World Juniors predictions: Quarterfinal matchups, who medals and who\u2019s relegated"},"content":{"rendered":"

By Corey Pronman<\/a>, Scott Wheeler<\/a>, Max Bultman<\/a> and The Athletic NHL Staff\u00a0<\/p>\n

How much could have changed in a week?<\/p>\n

Well, at the 2026 IIHF World Junior Championship, the answer is a lot.<\/p>\n

Our pre-tournament pick to win Group A in our World Juniors predictions<\/a>, the United States, finished behind Sweden<\/a>. One of our picks for the top defender, Cole Hutson, suffered an injury<\/a> that changed the outlook.<\/p>\n

What else changed? Before the tournament\u2019s quarterfinals, The Athletic polled 14 NHL staffers on Jan. 1, 2026, on the same set of questions we asked pre-tournament, plus their picks for the quarterfinal matchups and a potential Canada vs. USA clash in the semifinals or final. All those polled answered each question in the staff team picks portion of the survey.<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s how our staff\u2019s expectations for the tournament have already evolved, with expert analysis, critique and player picks from prospect experts Corey Pronman, Scott Wheeler and Max Bultman.<\/p>\n

Wheeler: This is a rematch of last year\u2019s quarterfinal, which came down to the last minute of the game, so don\u2019t fully count the Latvians out!<\/p>\n

Bultman: The Swedes have been impressive so far, and I wouldn\u2019t pick against them in any game the rest of the way as of now, but as any Canadian can tell you, do not overlook Latvia.<\/p>\n

Bultman: Switzerland closed out pool play with a nice win over Slovakia, and pushed USA early in the tournament as well. The Czechs are deserved favorites, but an upset here by Switzerland isn\u2019t a zero percent proposition, though it would probably require a big game in goal from either Christian Kirsch or Elijah Neuenschwander.<\/p>\n

Wheeler: The Swiss are owed better odds than zero here. They won two games in the preliminary round and lost to USA and Sweden by one and two goals respectively, finishing group play with a positive goal differential. They\u2019ve got a solid blue line, good goaltending and a couple of forwards.<\/p>\n

Wheeler: This is a coin toss. Cole Hutson\u2019s readiness following his full participation in practice on New Year\u2019s Day could be the determining factor.<\/p>\n

Bultman: I took Finland here. It\u2019s just tough for me to pick USA to make a major run, between their injuries (down Hutson and Max Plante) and some unconvincing wins so far.<\/p>\n

Wheeler: The Slovaks have had a respectable tournament. It probably takes Canadian penalty and goaltending trouble for them to win, but that\u2019s been known to happen at this tournament over the years.<\/p>\n

Bultman: I expect Canada\u2019s talent to eventually overwhelm Slovakia, but it\u2019s worth noting Slovakia hasn\u2019t lost by more than a goal at this event. They won\u2019t go down easy.<\/p>\n

Bultman: Again, tough to pick USA right now. Defensively, in particular, it\u2019s hard to see them stopping Canada, especially without a clear answer in net.<\/p>\n

Wheeler: Don\u2019t count out the Czechs or the Finns, but Canada and Sweden remain the favorites. I\u2019d be surprised at this point if the Americans three-peated.<\/p>\n

Bultman: Canada\u2019s goaltending has been a concern thus far, and I think Sweden\u2019s depth and heaviness, with Anton Frondell, Eddie Genborg and Jack Berglund, could give them some problems in what would be a fantastic gold medal game.<\/p>\n

Bultman: Our staff is overwhelmingly projecting a Canada-Sweden game, which feels correct to me, but this knockout round does feel ripe for an upset or two. It seems like a pretty open field coming out of pool play.<\/p>\n

Wheeler: I think we\u2019re most likely headed to a Canada-Sweden final as well, but this tournament does feel more wide-open than the results of our poll suggest.<\/p>\n

Wheeler: There are the Czechs! That would be four straight years with a medal for them.<\/p>\n

Bultman: The Czechs are a deserved favorite here, but I picked Finland. They took Czechia to overtime the last time they played, and found more offense than I expected to see from them coming in. I like them to pull out the win in a rematch for bronze.<\/p>\n

Wheeler: I think these are about the odds. The Germans should be favored.<\/p>\n

Bultman: Since scoring three goals against USA in their opener, Germany has just two total across its last three games.<\/p>\n

Pronman: I can’t believe I picked Cole Eiserman in hindsight. He’s been awful.<\/p>\n

Wheeler: Our Eiserman picks certainly didn\u2019t age well! The NTDP\u2019s all-time goals record holder has just one goal and one assist through four games and isn\u2019t playing in a prominent role for the Americans.<\/p>\n

Bultman: Michael Hage is tied with teammates Zayne Parekh and Gavin McKenna so far, and I do think it will be a Canadian taking the scoring crown at the end of this. But as the games get tighter in the elimination stage, I think Hage has the best chance to keep up the scoring pace \u2014 though Parekh and McKenna could certainly pile up numbers on the power play.<\/p>\n

MICHAEL HAGE IS THE OVERTIME HERO FOR CANADA! WHAT A GOAL! \ud83e\udd2f #WorldJuniors<\/a> pic.twitter.com\/hEknZN1q92<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 TSN (@TSN_Sports) December 28, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Bultman: Hage has had a fantastic tournament, and I like him to be the tournament\u2019s leading scorer. But after pool play, I like the Swedes to take gold in St. Paul, and Frondell has at least had stretches of dominance so far that I think will become more frequent in the most important games. His power-play one-timer has made him one of the top scorers so far, but it\u2019s his overall impact that I expect to shine through in the knockout round.<\/p>\n

Pronman: The MVP race is wide open at this stage. Hage seems the likeliest candidate as the center on the top line of the tournament, but I could see it going to a number of different players. Frankly the most impressive player overall may be a defenseman in Parekh.<\/p>\n

Wheeler: No forward has taken over this year\u2019s tournament, but Hage has created offense the most consistently and has been noticeable in all four of Canada\u2019s games.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\n Goalie Love Harenstam has been solid for Sweden. (David Berding \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Wheeler: Carter George and Petteri Rimpinen were the two best goalies at last year\u2019s World Juniors for me, and both entered this year\u2019s tournaments as favorites for the award. But neither has played well, leaving the door open for Love Harenstam, who hasn\u2019t stolen the show for Sweden but has been solid.<\/p>\n

Bultman: I don\u2019t know if any of the tournament\u2019s top teams have gotten truly stellar goaltending so far, but Harenstam\u2019s .920 and 3-0 record are hard to argue with.<\/p>\n

Wheeler: I think this is a three-horse race between Parekh and Czechia\u2019s Adam Jiricek and Tomas Galvas, but Parekh\u2019s offensive moments and production will probably win out and the two Czechs risk splitting votes.<\/p>\n

Bultman: Hutson\u2019s injury certainly changed the outlook, but Parekh\u2019s also tied for the overall tournament scoring lead on one of the group winners. He\u2019s the favorite right now.<\/p>\n

Bultman: Again, I went with Frondell because I think Sweden wins the tournament, but there\u2019s still some projecting required here to pick him. Hage would have my vote if based solely on what\u2019s happened so far.<\/p>\n

Wheeler: Viggo Bjorck\u2019s consistent impact across all four games, and that he\u2019s doing it as a center, gave him the edge for me over McKenna and Ivar Stenberg for me. Slovakia\u2019s Tomas Chrenko and USA\u2019s Chase Reid have had nice tournaments, too.<\/p>\n

Viggo Bjorck (2026) can play, no matter what anyone tells you. pic.twitter.com\/HpZSzjmKjB<\/a><\/p>\n

\u2014 Scott Wheeler (@scottcwheeler) December 26, 2025<\/a><\/p>\n

Bultman: Bjorck in particular has really caught my eye and probably helped his draft stock over the last week, but I have a hard time overlooking McKenna sitting tied atop the overall scoring board here.<\/p>\n

Pronman: Stenberg started off quietly in the tournament, but he was excellent versus the USA on New Year’s Eve, and I expect him to have a big medal round.<\/p>\n