{"id":444614,"date":"2026-02-04T05:21:14","date_gmt":"2026-02-04T05:21:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/444614\/"},"modified":"2026-02-04T05:21:14","modified_gmt":"2026-02-04T05:21:14","slug":"are-the-senators-the-nhls-next-big-second-half-playoff-surge","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/444614\/","title":{"rendered":"Are the Senators the NHL\u2019s Next Big Second-Half Playoff Surge?"},"content":{"rendered":"

If you just glance at the standings, the Ottawa Senators don\u2019t jump out as a team with a playoff path. They\u2019re buried behind a pile of Atlantic teams that have been on heaters since December, they don\u2019t have the benefit of a division race like some Metro clubs, and the goaltending has been shaky enough to sink a couple of months\u2019 worth of good efforts.<\/p>\n

But here\u2019s the twist: the numbers under the hood say something completely different. And that\u2019s why people around the league \u2014 including Elliotte Friedman \u2014 keep circling back to Ottawa as a team that could rise fast if they simply get average goaltending.<\/p>\n

The Senators\u2019 Record Doesn\u2019t Match the Team\u2019s Ability<\/p>\n

Friedman compared Ottawa\u2019s situation to the 2015 Blue Jays, the year Toronto traded for David Price. Back then, Alex Anthopoulos talked about run differential as the reason he believed the team was better than its record. The numbers predicted a surge \u2014 and he was right.<\/p>\n

Ottawa is basically that team right now.<\/p>\n

Their underlying stats are strong across the board: possession, expected goals, shot quality, scoring chances\u2026 they\u2019re winning the run-differential battle of hockey. The issue is they\u2019ve been undone by a simple, frustrating fact: they haven\u2019t been getting saves.<\/p>\n

When do they get them? They win. It\u2019s as simple as that.<\/p>\n

The Senators Have Already Proven They Can Beat Good Teams<\/p>\n

This isn\u2019t a team that just pads its numbers against weak opponents. Ottawa has hammered some legitimately strong clubs this season. They ran Vegas out of the rink. They humbled Colorado. And most recently, they completely controlled Pittsburgh. As Friedman noted,<\/a> the winning goal (St\u00fctzle\u2013Tkachuk\u2013Giroux magic) looked like a pure skill clinic.<\/p>\n

When Ottawa gets even baseline goaltending, its talent shines through.<\/p>\n

\"\"Brady Tkachuk<\/a> and Tim Stutzle<\/a> lead the Senators this season.<\/p>\n

Strength of the Senators\u2019 Schedule Won\u2019t Sink Them<\/p>\n

Ottawa\u2019s remaining schedule is tough, and the Atlantic Division hasn\u2019t made things easy. Since early December, basically every team not named Toronto or Montreal has been rolling. Ottawa also plays a ton of these teams down the stretch. <\/p>\n

That\u2019s a problem\u2026 but it\u2019s also an opportunity. Beat the teams you\u2019re chasing, and the math closes quickly. But Ottawa plays a style that actually supports winning. They control games. They drive play. They create more than they give up. That\u2019s what contenders do \u2014 even if the standings don\u2019t show it yet.<\/p>\n

So Can the Senators Actually Make the Postseason?<\/p>\n

The Senators can make the postseason. But it\u2019s not going to be easy. Ottawa\u2019s most realistic path is the wild card, and the teams they\u2019re chasing are playing well. But the foundation is there. The Senators have the underlying numbers, a sustainable style of play, real top-end talent, and a track record of hanging with elite teams \u2014 all ingredients you\u2019d expect from a group capable of pushing its way into the playoffs.<\/p>\n

If the goaltending stabilizes \u2014 even slightly \u2014 Ottawa is absolutely the kind of team that can rip off a serious run. And that\u2019s why people keep saying it: the Senators are a lot better than their record. And if the breaks finally go their way, they\u2019re one of the few teams outside the picture that could storm their way in.<\/p>\n

Related: Eastern Conference Contender Reemerges as Panarin Trade Candidate<\/a><\/p>\n

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