{"id":452115,"date":"2026-02-09T14:04:19","date_gmt":"2026-02-09T14:04:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/452115\/"},"modified":"2026-02-09T14:04:19","modified_gmt":"2026-02-09T14:04:19","slug":"red-wings-olympic-break-audit-evaluating-what-it-will-take-to-make-the-playoffs-the-hockey-writers-detroit-red-wings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/452115\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Wings Olympic Break Audit: Evaluating What It Will Take to Make the Playoffs – The Hockey Writers – Detroit Red Wings"},"content":{"rendered":"

There\u2019s a lot to like about how the Detroit Red Wings\u2019 2025-26 season has played out thus far. Detroit owns the eighth-best record in the NHL at 33-19-6, and their star players\u2014Dylan <\/a>Larkin<\/a>, Lucas Raymond, Alex DeBrincat, Moritz Seider, and John Gibson\u2014have led the charge.<\/p>\n

That said, there\u2019s no guarantee they make the playoffs. The Red Wings have the fourth-most difficult schedule remaining thanks to their membership in the uber-competitive Atlantic Division. They cannot cruise to the finish line.<\/p>\n

This is not intended to be fearmongering or rage bait \u2014 it\u2019s an honest assessment of where the Red Wings are at, and what they need to do to reach the postseason. Let\u2019s dive in.<\/p>\n

\"PatrickDetroit Red Wings right wing Patrick Kane celebrates with right wing Alex Debrincat after scoring (Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images)<\/p>\n

2025-26 Red Wings By the Numbers<\/p>\n

Here\u2019s a snapshot of how the Red Wings have performed through the first 58 games of the season. Note that the offense- and defense-specific metrics are at five on five.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Red Wings: Overall Performance<\/p>\n

MetricValueRankPoints Percentage.6218Goals For\/Game2.9720Goals Against\/Game2.9712Power Play23.1%9Penalty Kill79.6%15<\/p>\n

Red Wings: 5-on-5 Offense<\/p>\n

MetricValueRankCF\/6057.6115GF\/602.1127xGF\/602.6614HDCF\/6010.9623<\/p>\n

Red Wings: 5-on-5 Defense<\/p>\n

MetricValueRankCA\/6059.5725GA\/602.4313xGA\/602.6615HDCA\/6011.5617<\/p>\n

My personal preference is to utilize high-danger chances as a proxy for a team\u2019s offensive creation and defensive suppression. It\u2019s not cumulative like expected goals, and is purely location-based.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Here is how the Red Wings have trended over time when it comes to high-danger chances:<\/p>\n

\"TheThe Detroit Red Wings\u2019 high-danger chances for and against over the course of the 2025-26 season. (Tony Wolak\/The Hockey Writers)<\/p>\n

Now that we\u2019ve covered the numbers, let\u2019s dig into what they mean.<\/p>\n

Analyzing the 2025-26 Red Wings<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll start with the offense. Detroit\u2019s goal scoring hasn\u2019t been particularly impressive this season. But, hey, it\u2019s been good enough to win 33 games.\u00a0<\/p>\n

That said, the misaligned GF\/60 and xGF\/60 caught my attention early on. In my opinion, these numbers should be roughly the same. If not, it\u2019s worth digging into why.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Detroit\u2019s GF\/60 and xGF\/60 discrepancy can be explained two ways:<\/p>\n

They\u2019re due to score more goals, given the lower GF\/60 number<\/p>\n

xGF\/60 is being inflated by shot attempt volume<\/p>\n

Given Detroit\u2019s below-average HDCF\/60, I\u2019m inclined to think it\u2019s the latter \u2013 that they overindex in low- and medium-danger chances, and that adds up into an above-average xGF\/60 figure that\u2019s not fully indicative of what actually happens on the ice.\u00a0<\/p>\n

I don\u2019t think anyone will disagree that the Red Wings\u2019 five-on-five offense has been lackluster this season. They just aren\u2019t generating enough high-danger chances in the dirty areas around the crease and inner slot. They\u2019re called high-danger chances for a reason, after all.<\/p>\n

\"DetroitThe Detroit Red Wings celebrate after a goal scored by left wing James van Riemsdyk (Steven Bisig-Imagn Images)<\/p>\n

In fact, Red Wings forwards have only scored 14 five-on-five goals since Jan. 1 \u2013 eight by the top six and six (four from J.T. Compher alone) from the bottom six.\u00a0<\/p>\n

This has to change when the team returns to action after the Olympics. The Red Wings need to score more \u2013 especially at five on five. (The power play has slumped as of late, too \u2013 Detroit needs to reignite their man advantage.)<\/p>\n

This can be viewed as a development opportunity for the team. Can they dig deep and step their game up during the all-important stretch run? Can Todd McLellan maximize the lineup and squeeze some more offense out of his forwards?<\/p>\n

Personally, I wouldn\u2019t bank on it. We\u2019ve had a sufficient enough sample size to show that reinforcements are needed<\/a>. A trade deadline acquisition would certainly help. There\u2019s a case to be made that a particular AHL call-up could be effective, too.<\/p>\n

During his nine-game stint with the Red Wings earlier in the season, Michael Brandsegg-Nygard produced impressive high-danger numbers, including 4.92 iHDCF\/60, 1.23 rush attempts per 60, and 9.22 individual scoring chances per 60 (iSCF\/60). He ranks in the top-three among Red Wings forwards for all of these metrics. It\u2019s a small sample size, yes, but his strong performance (and physical style of play) warrants another NHL look.<\/p>\n

Moving on to Detroit\u2019s defense, the report is a bit rosier. Their GA\/60, xGA\/60, and HDCA\/60 have all improved since Jan. 1. In addition, their high-danger shots against per 60 (HDSA\/60)\u2014a subset of HDCA\/60\u2014ranks very favorably when compared to the rest of the league, indicating that while the Red Wings allow their fair share of HDCA\/60, a small percentage actually hit the goalie\/net.<\/p>\n

Another plus \u2013 Simon Edvinsson is expected to return after the Olympic Break. Deploying two top-pairing-caliber defensemen 22-plus minutes a night should improve the team\u2019s defensive numbers that much more.<\/p>\n

If you asked me in December what the Red Wings\u2019 biggest need was, I would have said defensive depth. Arguably, that\u2019s lower on the totem pole now with the offense sputtering. Still, there\u2019s risk in maintaining the status quo given the ebbs and flows that take place throughout the season. Adding defensive depth would be a prudent move<\/a> \u2013 reinforcing the second-pair with a true top-four blueliner would have a cascading effect, slotting the rest of Detroit\u2019s defensemen into more appropriate roles.<\/p>\n

Related: Red Wings Have Earned Trade Deadline Reinforcements<\/a><\/p>\n

The Red Wings should also mitigate their risk when it comes to their goalies. John Gibson<\/a> has been stellar, but there\u2019s risk of overuse, especially when you consider his age an injury history. It would be wise to get Cam Talbot more starts down the stretch to ensure both goalies are fresh (and healthy) once the postseason begins.<\/p>\n

Final Word<\/p>\n

The Red Wings were fortunate to bank a lot of points early in the season. And, as of now, they have a 78.3 percent chance<\/a> of reaching the postseason, according to MoneyPuck.<\/p>\n

There\u2019s no guarantee they snap the playoff drought, though. The Atlantic Division is tight, and Detroit cannot afford to slip up down the stretch. You already know that Tampa Bay, Montreal, Buffalo, and possibly Boston will add at the trade deadline, and Ottawa and Florida aren\u2019t planning to back down.<\/p>\n

So if the Red Wings want to reach the playoffs, they need to:<\/p>\n

Improve their goal-scoring, both at five on five and on the power play, through internal and external sources<\/p>\n

Get greater contributions from the bottom six<\/p>\n

Add defensive depth in order to slot their blueliners more appropriately<\/p>\n

Manage Gibson and Talbot\u2019s workloads to keep both fresh<\/p>\n

Accomplishing these four objectives will put them in a great spot to reach the postseason for the first time since Dylan Larkin\u2019s rookie year. Mitigating potential slumps for Olympic participants and not letting the pressure of ending the drought\/experiencing another late-season collapse get to them will help, too.<\/p>\n

A playoff berth is within Detroit\u2019s grasp. They need to seize the opportunity before it passes them by.<\/p>\n

Data courtesy of NHL.<\/a>com<\/a>, Natural Stat Trick<\/a>, and MoneyPuck<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"There\u2019s a lot to like about how the Detroit Red Wings\u2019 2025-26 season has played out thus far.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":452116,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[5101],"tags":[23057,599,93,5137,5,12641,4588,4,3358,5138],"class_list":{"0":"post-452115","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-detroit-red-wings","8":"tag-2026-nhl-trade-deadline","9":"tag-detroit","10":"tag-detroit-red-wings","11":"tag-detroitredwings","12":"tag-hockey","13":"tag-john-gibson","14":"tag-michael-brandsegg-nygard","15":"tag-nhl","16":"tag-red-wings","17":"tag-redwings"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116041054669883250","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/452115","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=452115"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/452115\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/452116"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=452115"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=452115"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=452115"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}