{"id":453492,"date":"2026-02-10T18:23:23","date_gmt":"2026-02-10T18:23:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/453492\/"},"modified":"2026-02-10T18:23:23","modified_gmt":"2026-02-10T18:23:23","slug":"oddly-specific-olympic-mens-hockey-predictions-as-nhl-players-return-to-the-games","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/453492\/","title":{"rendered":"Oddly specific Olympic men\u2019s hockey predictions as NHL players return to the Games"},"content":{"rendered":"

Red Light newsletter\u00a0\ud83c\udfd2\u00a0| This is\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s\u00a0hockey\u00a0newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here<\/a>\u00a0to receive Red Light directly in your inbox.<\/p>\n

Good morning to everyone except Czech Republic\u2019s Krist\u00fdna Kaltounkov\u00e1. You leave our sweet Marie-Philip Poulin alone<\/a>! If you truly feel the need to injure a Canadian, I volunteer myself as tribute.<\/p>\n

Some significant breaking news to address right off the bat: Poulin, the best women\u2019s hockey player of all time, has been ruled out<\/a> for today\u2019s Canada versus United States rivalry game<\/a>. I hope she gets well soon, as we\u2019ll need her for overtime of the gold-medal game, where she\u2019ll be the one to \u2026 wait, I\u2019ve already given too much away.<\/p>\n

Where were we? Oh right, it\u2019s Tuesday and the Olympics are well and truly here<\/a>, so let\u2019s get you caught up on what else has already transpired and ready for the next couple of weeks.<\/p>\n

Anticipation<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s be honest, you weren\u2019t sleeping last night. You were only pretending to sleep because you know that Olympic Hockey Santa doesn\u2019t come if you\u2019re awake. But he\u2019s here, and things are about to get very real.<\/p>\n

Before we get too far, a PSA: You can find all of our Olympics coverage \u2014 a certified glut of it \u2014 on this page<\/a> throughout the Games. And you can sign up for our daily Games Briefing newsletter here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

OK, let\u2019s start on the men\u2019s side of the hockey tournaments \u2026<\/p>\n

The long wait is over<\/p>\n

We\u2019re breaking out the bullet points. Here\u2019s what you need to know:<\/p>\n

This is the first Olympic men\u2019s hockey tournament featuring NHL players since 2014 in Sochi. There are reasons for that<\/a>, but let\u2019s just move on and say we\u2019re all happy for the return.
\nThe men\u2019s side has 12 teams competing in three divisions. The four teams within a division play each other once each in a round-robin format, followed by the playoffs. We\u2019ll be tracking the results<\/a> so you can easily keep up.
\nEvery team makes the playoff round. There are no \u201cmust-win\u201d games in the round robin. That said, seeding matters, maybe a lot. The top four teams will get byes into the quarterfinal round and theoretically easier matchups the rest of the way.
\nThe round robin uses a 3-2-1-0 format, which is to say teams get three points for a regulation win, two for a win in OT or the shootout, one for a loss in OT or the shootout, and nothing for a regulation loss. You know, the way the NHL should do it.
\nYes, I did mention the shootout. That stupid thing is part of the tournament. In the round robin, tied games get five minutes of three-on-three overtime followed by a shootout. In the playoff rounds, it\u2019s 10 minutes of three-on-three, then a shootout. The lone exception, thankfully, is the gold-medal game \u2014 that\u2019s still three-on-three, but overtime lasts until there\u2019s a winner. No shootouts with gold on the line.
\nDom Luszczyszyn\u2019s previews for all 12 teams are here<\/a>. Canada and the U.S. are the favorites, as you\u2019d expect. By the way, Canada is in Group A, while Team USA is in Group C. That means the rivals are not playing each other in the round robin. Their only meeting, if we get one at all, will be in the elimination phase. Here\u2019s a quick look at Dom\u2019s odds in a handy chart:
\"\"
\nThe tournament is being played with international rules, which are similar but not identical to NHL rules. Jesse Granger has a good breakdown of the key differences<\/a>, with rink size most notable.
\nDon\u2019t forget about the time-zone difference, which will have games played during the day in North America. The gold-medal game is at 8:10 a.m. ET on a Sunday, so make your weekend plans accordingly. Here\u2019s a full Olympics schedule<\/a> automatically adjusted to your time zone.<\/p>\n

Now that you know how everything works, the only thing left is to sit back and see how it all plays out. Of course, we\u2019ve already told you, with our staff predictions<\/a> that went up yesterday. But maybe you found those were lacking something. Maybe they weren\u2019t quite \u2026 specific enough?<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Rasmus Dahlin. (Gregory Shamus \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Oddly specific predictions<\/p>\n

Some of you will know that I like to mark the start of each new NHL season by making oddly specific predictions for each team. (This season\u2019s version is here<\/a>.) You may also remember that we offered up five bonus predictions in the newsletter itself, one of which has already come true<\/a>. Twice! Sort of. We got the goalie fight prediction right, but not the nationalities involved. Some would see that as glass half-empty, others would say half-full. In the oddly specific prediction game, we call it \u201ca miracle that there\u2019s anything in the glass at all.\u201d<\/p>\n

You\u2019ll notice these predictions are tough to get right, because that\u2019s the whole point. Anyone can tell you that Canada will win gold. Let\u2019s go beyond that. Let\u2019s get weirdly specific, with half a dozen Olympic predictions \u2026<\/p>\n

Somebody on one of the two North American teams is going to take a major penalty for a hit that likely wouldn\u2019t be called that way in the NHL, and controversy will ensue. Bonus prediction: Against all odds, that player will not be Tom Wilson.
\nCongratulations to Sebastian Aho for briefly leading the entire tournament in scoring. Specifically, it will happen tomorrow when he scores the tournament\u2019s first goal.
\nConnor Hellebuyck will be in Team USA\u2019s net<\/a> when the Americans open their schedule. He will not be there when it\u2019s time to start their final game of the tournament.
\nThe surprise for Team Sweden<\/a> won\u2019t be Rasmus Dahlin leading the team in scoring, but how big the gap is between him and second place.
\nThere will be one (and only one) game during the tournament in which the winning goal will be scored by a player who\u2019ll go on to be traded by his NHL team ahead of the March trade deadline<\/a>.
\nFinally, some bad news, at least for the NHL\u2019s marketing department: Team Canada and Team USA will not meet in the final, because one of them is going to get knocked out during the elimination phase in a shootout. This will lead to everyone wondering why loser-goes-home games are being decided this way. Nobody will have a good answer, other than \u201cwe really hoped this wouldn\u2019t happen.\u201d
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\n (Jonathan Nackstrand \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Trivia Time<\/p>\n

In the five previous Olympics to feature NHL players (1998, 2002, 2006, 2010 and 2014), a total of 35 players have scored more than 10 career points.<\/p>\n

Only three of those players are currently still active in the NHL \u2014 and none of them are going to this year\u2019s tournament.<\/p>\n

Can you name all three?<\/p>\n

Hint in the photo. Answer at the bottom.<\/p>\n

Coast to Coast<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udfd2 Our writers are on the ground in Italy and were there for yesterday\u2019s first men\u2019s practices. Here\u2019s Michael Russo on what he saw from Team USA<\/a>, and Arpon Basu on Team Canada\u2019s burgeoning identity<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udea8 The big question: Who should start in goal<\/a> for Team Canada? If you\u2019re Canadian, you probably don\u2019t want to read this about Jordan Binnington<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\u2753 Mark Lazerus has three Olympic hockey names you may not know well but might hear a lot about<\/a> over the next couple of weeks.<\/p>\n

\ud83e\udd45 Charlie McAvoy and his grotesquely swollen jaw have already made some news with an interesting tweet. He gets into it as part of his first Olympic diary<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83e\ude9a Chris Pronger has joined The Athletic as a guest columnist for the Olympics. His first column<\/a> is about how winning gold changed him as a player.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udd25 Pierre LeBrun talked to some of the stars who\u2019ll be competing at the Olympics for the first time<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\uddf0 Juraj Slafkovsk\u00fd is like the Sidney Crosby of Slovakia<\/a>, and this could be his breakout moment. The 21-year-old is playing in his second Olympics after leading his country to its first-ever men\u2019s hockey medal, a bronze in Beijing.<\/p>\n

\ud83c\uddf8\ud83c\uddea Team Sweden is \u201cnot overly concerned<\/a>\u201d after William Nylander was absent from practice Tuesday on the eve of the team\u2019s opener against Italy.<\/p>\n

\ud83e\uddd0 Russia isn\u2019t competing in Milan, but Pierre and Dom looked at what that team might have looked like<\/a>, and how its absence impacts everyone else\u2019s medal chances.<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udf99\ufe0f \u201cThe Athletic Hockey Show\u201d two-part men\u2019s Olympic hockey previews<\/a> are up and running ahead of play tomorrow. Be sure to subscribe on YouTube<\/a> to watch live episodes and reactions throughout the tournament, all the way through the gold-medal game.<\/p>\n

What to Watch<\/p>\n

The men don\u2019t start until tomorrow, but the women are already well underway. And you know what that means \u2026<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcfa United States vs. Canada, women\u2019s prelims
2:10 p.m. ET on USA\/Peacock (U.S.), CBC (Canada)
Follow The Athletic\u2019s live coverage here<\/a><\/p>\n

So, who\u2019s up for the single greatest rivalry<\/a> in hockey?<\/p>\n

This one won\u2019t be the main event of the women\u2019s tournament because that will almost certainly come in a rematch in the gold-medal game. Instead, consider this the undercard. It\u2019s the moment in the movie when the hero and villain cross paths, but it\u2019s too early to be the final fight.<\/p>\n

(I\u2019ll leave it to you to figure out who\u2019s the hero and the villain in this analogy, but there is a right answer.)<\/p>\n

On the surface, the game itself won\u2019t matter all that much. Marie-Philip Poulin, the best player in the world<\/a>, is out with a lower-body injury<\/a> sustained yesterday. Both teams will easily qualify for the quarterfinals, and there are no byes in the women\u2019s tournament. Assuming both teams run the table in their other games, they\u2019ll finish first and second and won\u2019t cross paths again until the gold-medal game. So, ultimately, this one doesn\u2019t mean much.<\/p>\n

Except that it does, because it\u2019s Canada and the U.S. These two teams hate each other and have a history of serving up absolute classics<\/a>. They\u2019d probably get heated playing Scrabble or pregame soccer two-touch. There\u2019s no such thing as a meaningless loss between them.<\/p>\n

And for the record, the losses lately have all been on the Canadian side. The two programs last met late last year in the Rivalry Series, which the Americans swept<\/a>, including one win in which they scored 10 goals<\/a>. It\u2019s fair to assume the Canadians remember.<\/p>\n

For now, both teams head into action with perfect records<\/a> in this tournament. Team USA is sitting in the top spot at 3-0, while Canada holds down second at 2-0 (after having a game postponed due to Finland\u2019s norovirus outbreak). Today\u2019s game should essentially clinch first place for the winner. The loser will get to take some notes for next time. And there will be a next time.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ll have live coverage of the game right here<\/a>. You won\u2019t want to miss it.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n (Jonathan Nackstrand \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Your Trivia Answer<\/p>\n

The three active players with more than 10 career points in the Olympics in the NHL era includes two Russian legends: Evgeni Malkin (15) and Alexander Ovechkin (11 points). The third is from Team Canada: Jonathan Toews, pictured left, who has 11 points.<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re wondering, Sidney Crosby, pictured right, has a career total of nine points, making him the leader among players in this year\u2019s tournament. He heads into action sitting one point ahead of Canadian teammate Drew Doughty and Penguins teammate Erik Karlsson of Team Sweden.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udceb Love Red Light?\u00a0Check out\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s other newsletters<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Red Light newsletter\u00a0\ud83c\udfd2\u00a0| This is\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s\u00a0hockey\u00a0newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here\u00a0to receive Red Light directly in your inbox. Good morning to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":453493,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[5,54125,4,2602],"class_list":{"0":"post-453492","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nhl","8":"tag-hockey","9":"tag-mens-olympic-ice-hockey","10":"tag-nhl","11":"tag-olympics"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116047735098256173","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/453492","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=453492"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/453492\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/453493"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=453492"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=453492"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=453492"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}