Tampa Bay Lightning <\/p>\n
Current Cap Hit: $96,287,774<\/a> (over the $95.5MM Upper Limit)<\/p>\n Entry-Level Contracts<\/p>\n F Dominic James<\/a> (two years, $910K)<\/p>\n Potential Bonuses James declined to sign with Chicago and instead opted to go to free agency to get a better shot at NHL playing time.\u00a0 It took a bit of time but he has been up for most of the season, albeit in a bottom-six role.\u00a0 He should be able to get some of his games played bonus, an amount that might roll over to next year\u2019s cap given Tampa\u2019s cap situation.\u00a0 If James can stay in this role through next season, doubling this price tag could be doable.<\/p>\n Signed Through 2025-26, Non-Entry-Level<\/p>\n F Oliver Bjorkstrand<\/a> ($5.4MM, UFA) Bjorkstrand was the big pickup up front at the deadline last season with the fact he had an extra year left on his deal justifying a high price tag in terms of what they paid to get him.\u00a0 Back in the summer, a price tag in the $7MM range seemed feasible but he has been quieter than expected this season.\u00a0 That could lower the cost a bit on a longer-term deal but he also might be a candidate to take a one-year pact somewhere in the hopes of bolstering his value.\u00a0 That market could be fairly lucrative given how thinned out the UFA market has gotten so even with his struggles, he\u2019s still heading for a raise.\u00a0 Douglas has played sparingly this season and while his NHL price will go up thanks to the increase in minimum salary, it\u2019d be surprising if he received a one-way deal.<\/p>\n Raddysh has become one of the most interesting players in the upcoming UFA class.\u00a0 He quietly put up 30-plus points in back-to-back seasons which already made him a bargain at this price tag but this year, he\u2019s hovering around 22 minutes and a point per game.\u00a0 Oh, and he\u2019s a right-shot player too, the side always in maximum demand.\u00a0 The price tag for defensemen who can produce at a point per game can jump close to the $10MM per season range.\u00a0 It\u2019s not feasible to think that Raddysh is going to land there given his smaller track record but something in the $6MM range could very well be doable.\u00a0 That\u2019s still quite a jump for someone who was still trying to become a full-time regular just a few years ago.<\/p>\n Carlile is getting his first taste of extended NHL action and is holding his own in a limited role.\u00a0 He\u2019s probably not going to jump too far past the $850K minimum salary but a one-way deal is a realistic goal to strive for.<\/p>\n Signed Through 2026-27<\/p>\n D Charle-Edouard D\u2019Astous<\/a> ($775K in 2025-26, $875K in 2026-27, UFA) Holmberg has fit in nicely in his first season with Tampa Bay after being non-tendered by Toronto to avoid arbitration.\u00a0 The fact he can play center (even though he hasn\u2019t much with the Lightning) will help his market value.\u00a0 If he can stay in a third-line role next season, doubling this price tag could be doable.<\/p>\n Goncalves has given Tampa Bay a bit of offense from the bottom six which is good but players like him often become non-tender candidates with teams wanting to keep their depth spots a little cheaper.\u00a0 With arbitration rights putting him in a spot to likely push for more than $2MM per season, Goncalves could be another in this trend.\u00a0 Girgensons had a tough first year in Tampa Bay but has been better this season, moving onto the third line.\u00a0 Still, at this stage of his career, teams will likely view him as a low-cost fourth liner.\u00a0 A small raise should be doable unless he wants to leave money on the table again to play for a contender.<\/p>\n Lilleberg has been a nice depth pickup after Arizona gave up his draft rights and a contract below the minimum next season (even after being boosted to reflect the new minimum salary) is a nice bonus.\u00a0 Value-wise, he\u2019s a player who could seemingly land around the $1.5MM to $2MM mark but like Goncalves, his arbitration eligibility could work against him should he be unsigned by the end of June 2027.\u00a0 D\u2019Astous has also been a nice find in free agency and quickly went from a player earmarked for AHL Syracuse to someone who has seen time in the top four.\u00a0 Even his in-season extension looks like a team-friendly one.\u00a0 If he stays as a top-four piece, a jump to the $3MM range could be realistic.<\/p>\n Johansson has been a below-average netminder throughout his career but with the Lightning having a high-end starter, they\u2019ve opted for a low-cost second-string option.\u00a0 If he\u2019s content with the role he has, another short-term deal around this price point is doable for him.<\/p>\n Signed Through 2027-28<\/p>\n D Maxwell Crozier<\/a> ($775K, UFA) Crozier is a full-time NHL player for the first time this season and understandably has had a limited role when he has been in the lineup.\u00a0 But a seventh defender at the league minimum for a few years is still reasonable value.\u00a0 The goal for Crozier will be to work his way into a full-time lineup spot which will need to happen for him to comfortably eclipse the $1MM mark on his next contract.<\/p>\n After a rough 2023-24 season by his standards, Vasilevskiy has bounced back to Vezina-level form and is providing a good return on this price tag.\u00a0 Like Kucherov, he\u2019ll be heading into his age-34 contract and a long-term pact is going to be needed to keep this price tag down a bit.\u00a0 He\u2019s someone who could aim to pass Igor Shesterkin<\/a>\u2019s $11.5MM AAV although if it\u2019s a longer-term agreement, it could check in closer to where it is now.<\/p>\n Signed Through 2028-29 <\/p>\n D Victor Hedman<\/a> ($8MM, UFA) Paul\u2019s deal raised some eyebrows at the time as seven years to a player who only once had more than 20 points carried some risk.\u00a0 However, he has become one of Tampa Bay\u2019s more versatile players and the increasing salary cap makes it a deal they shouldn\u2019t have much issue carrying.\u00a0 It\u2019s not impossible to think that he could get a small raise on his next deal as well.<\/p>\n Hedman has been an anchor on Tampa Bay\u2019s back end for 17 years and even if his ice time is cut down by the end of this contract, he\u2019ll have provided plenty of surplus value by then.\u00a0 However, time catches up to everyone and he\u2019ll be a few months shy of 39 when his next potential deal might start.\u00a0 From there, it might make sense to go year-to-year to allow for some performance bonuses, giving the team a bit more flexibility cap-wise.\u00a0 But even with that, it\u2019d be hard to project him matching his current deal, even in a higher cap environment.\u00a0 McDonagh isn\u2019t the top-pairing player he was early in his career but is still a solid top-four player.\u00a0 If he can stay in that role for the first two seasons at least of his next contract, it should age well even though he\u2019ll be 40 when it expires.<\/p>\n Signed Through 2029-30 Or Longer<\/p>\n D Erik Cernak<\/a> ($5.2MM through 2030-31) At his best, Point has been a 90-plus-point player, giving the Lightning high-end production with responsible two-way play.\u00a0 However, his output has tapered off a bit the last couple of years (including this one, when healthy), making this deal not as much of a bargain as it might have seemed a couple of years ago.\u00a0 That said, he\u2019s still a solid number one center and unless his production really tapers off, he\u2019ll be in the double-digit AAV on his next deal.\u00a0 Guentzel opted to forego free agency to sign after the Lightning acquired his rights while deciding to part with Steven Stamkos<\/a>.\u00a0 That move has worked out well so far with Guentzel producing over a point per game so far with the Lightning.\u00a0 He should be able to stay in that territory for a while, giving them a solid return in the process.<\/p>\n Cirelli\u2019s offense has run a bit hot and cold while on this contract.\u00a0 However, he\u2019s one of the NHL\u2019s top defensive forwards and, as long as his current injury isn\u2019t a long-term one, he should reach the 20-goal mark for the third straight year.\u00a0 He\u2019s a strong second option behind Point at a price tag that\u2019s now well below market value for that particular spot on the depth chart.\u00a0 It was surprising that Tampa Bay was able to afford to re-sign Gourde.\u00a0 It was especially surprising that he received a six-year deal at the age of 33 but that allowed the cap hit to be low enough.\u00a0 For now, they\u2019re getting a good return on the deal but as he ages and slows down, that probably won\u2019t be the case.\u00a0 On the other hand, the AAV is low enough to be manageable even if it becomes a negative-value pact.<\/p>\n Cernak signed his deal at the same time as Cirelli with the hope that the two would be long-term key core players.\u00a0 Cirelli fits the bill but Cernak has been more of a fourth defender than a key cog.\u00a0 While he\u2019s a solid defensive defenseman, he\u2019s not providing a lot of bang for the buck overall, especially with injuries creeping up most years; he\u2019s only played in more than 70 games just once.\u00a0 Moser was a key part of the return for Mikhail Sergachev<\/a> and has fit in quite well, as evidenced by the long-term extension he inked not long ago.\u00a0 His track record is enough to suggest that a big jump offensively likely isn\u2019t coming but if he can hold his own in top-pairing minutes, kill penalties, and put up around 30 points, his new price tag should hold up well in the new cap environment.<\/p>\n Buyouts<\/p>\n None<\/p>\n Retained Salary Transactions<\/p>\n None<\/p>\n Carryover Bonus Overage Penalty<\/p>\n None<\/p>\n Best Value: (non-entry-level) Raddysh Looking Ahead<\/p>\n The Lightning have been using LTIR for the majority of the season and while it\u2019s possible for them to dip below it by the trade deadline, they won\u2019t be able to bank any cap room of consequence.\u00a0 Accordingly, they\u2019re a money-in, money-out team once again.<\/p>\n GM Julien BriseBois will have some rare flexibility next summer, however, with more than $15MM in spending room.\u00a0 A big chunk of that will be needed for a new deal for Raddysh (or to try to sign a replacement should he go elsewhere) but there should be enough cap space to try to add another impact player or upgrade their depth.\u00a0 That flexibility jumps to around $41MM for 2027-28 with Kucherov being the next big-ticket deal.\u00a0 It\u2019s one that they should be able to afford.\u00a0 Tampa Bay\u2019s cap situation has looked rough at times in the past but now, they\u2019re in a much more manageable spot moving forward.<\/p>\n Photos courtesy of Kim Klement Neitzel and Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Navigating the salary cap is one of the most important tasks for a front office. \u00a0Teams 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James: $102.5K<\/p>\n
D Declan Carlile<\/a> ($775K, UFA)
F Curtis Douglas<\/a> ($775K, UFA)
D Darren Raddysh<\/a> ($975K, UFA)<\/p>\n
F Zemgus Girgensons<\/a> ($850K, UFA)
F Gage Goncalves<\/a> ($1.2MM, UFA)
F Pontus Holmberg<\/a> ($1.55MM, UFA)
G Jonas Johansson<\/a> ($1.25MM, UFA)
F Nikita Kucherov<\/a> ($9.5MM, UFA)
D Emil Martinsen Lilleberg<\/a> ($800K, RFA)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/USATSI_25991936-235x300.jpg\")
<\/a>Even as one of the top-paid wingers in the league when this contract first started, Kucherov has been a bargain for the Lightning.\u00a0 Even if he agrees to keep taking a bit below market value, market value has jumped with the sharper increases to the salary cap.\u00a0 On the other hand, he\u2019ll be entering his age-34 contract when this deal begins.\u00a0 A short-term deal could push the AAV into the $13MM or more range unless he wants to leave a lot of money on the table.\u00a0 I explored what a longer-term deal could look like in an effort to keep the price tag a little lower in a mailbag<\/a>; if Tampa Bay wants to go six years, they could get an AAV more around the $10MM to $10.5MM range if all went well.<\/p>\n
G Andrei Vasilevskiy<\/a> ($9.5MM, UFA)<\/p>\n
D Ryan McDonagh<\/a> ($6.75MM in 2025-26, $4.1MM from 2026-27 through 2028-29)
F Nick Paul<\/a> ($3.15MM, UFA)<\/p>\n
F Anthony Cirelli<\/a> ($6.25MM through 2030-31)
F Yanni Gourde<\/a> ($2.333MM through 2030-31)
F Jake Guentzel<\/a> ($9MM through 2030-31)
F Brandon Hagel<\/a> ($6.5MM through 2031-32)
D J.J. Moser<\/a> ($3.375MM in 2025-26, $6.75MM from 2026-27 through 2033-34)
F Brayden Point<\/a> ($9.5MM through 2029-30)<\/p>\n![\"\"](\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/USATSI_27703787-200x300.jpg\")
<\/a>Hagel\u2019s journey has been an interesting one.\u00a0 Drafted by Buffalo but unsigned, Montreal then passed on signing him after bringing him in to rookie camp.\u00a0 He eventually signed with Chicago and then was dealt for two first-round picks, a price that felt crazy at the time.\u00a0 It doesn\u2019t anymore.\u00a0 Hagel was on a bargain deal at the time and this current contract is also very much a club-friendly pact.\u00a0 After being more of a second liner early in his career, he\u2019s now a legitimate top-line player who happens to now be making second-line money for the long haul.\u00a0 It might not be long before this contract becomes their best value.<\/p>\n
Worst Value: Cernak<\/p>\n