{"id":458831,"date":"2026-02-15T15:21:23","date_gmt":"2026-02-15T15:21:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/458831\/"},"modified":"2026-02-15T15:21:23","modified_gmt":"2026-02-15T15:21:23","slug":"3-ways-canadiens-secure-home-ice-advantage-in-2026-playoffs-the-hockey-writers-montreal-canadiens","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/458831\/","title":{"rendered":"3 Ways Canadiens Secure Home-Ice Advantage in 2026 Playoffs &#8211; The Hockey Writers &#8211; Montreal Canadiens"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>The Montreal Canadiens began their Olympic break in what would have generally been considered an outlandish position heading into 2025-26: in second place in the Atlantic Division, with home-ice advantage effectively within their grasp. All they need to do is stay there. That\u2019s easier said than done though, for obvious reasons, in a tight division.<\/p>\n<p>To be fair, the Canadiens aren\u2019t guaranteed to so much as reach the postseason at this point. However, seven points up on the ninth-place Columbus Blue Jackets (who have one game in hand), they\u2019re fairly safe at the moment. They just need to keep what they\u2019re doing, in that regard. That doesn\u2019t hold true if they hold higher aspirations, though.<\/p>\n<p>It doesn\u2019t suffice to say the Canadiens just need to \u201cwin\u201d to get home ice, as technically true as that may be. Sure, if they run the table over their remaining 25 games, they\u2019re most likely going to earn home ice, but then again they\u2019ll have earned 122 points in the process, which could also lead to the Presidents\u2019 Trophy, which is inherently unlikely.<\/p>\n<p>As unlikely as it may have seemed that they would earn home ice, now that the hypothetical goal has become a possibility, it\u2019s owed a level of respect, in a manner of speaking, which, ironically, so few analysts paid the Canadiens at the onset of the season. So, with that, here are the three ways the Habs make home ice to start the 2026 Stanley Cup Playoffs a reality:<\/p>\n<p>3. Improve Their Atlantic Intradivisional Play<\/p>\n<p>About that Atlantic\u2026 the Canadiens may currently hold down second place, but it\u2019s on a technicality, as the Detroit Red Wings have the same amount of points (72), just with one additional game played (58). With the Tampa Bay Lightning having started to break away at 37-14-4 (78 points) in just 55 games, second place will most likely come down to one of the Habs, Wings, Buffalo Sabres (70 in 57) or Boston Bruins (69 in 57).<\/p>\n<p>The good news is, of all those teams listed, the Canadiens have the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.tankathon.com\/nhl\/remaining_schedule_strength\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">easiest schedule remaining<\/a>. The bad news is two-fold, though:<\/p>\n<p>Their remaining opponents still have a .575 points percentage on average.<\/p>\n<p>Many of those games are against Atlantic teams, against which the <a href=\"https:\/\/thehockeywriters.com\/canadiens-keep-struggles-against-atlantic-alive-despite-win-over-senators\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Habs have struggled<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>For context, the Canadiens are a pedestrian 10-8-1 against the Atlantic, which amounts to a .553 points percentage. Overall, they\u2019ve got one of .632. So, especially with seven Atlantic games left, at least two of which one would consider four-point games (against the Bruins and Wings in quick succession, March 17-19), that\u2019s something they need to address.<\/p>\n<p>2. Kill More Penalties<\/p>\n<p>One recent Atlantic game comes to mind as the perfect example of with what the Canadiens are dealing. On Jan. 24, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nhl.com\/gamecenter\/bos-vs-mtl\/2026\/01\/24\/2025020812\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">against the Bruins<\/a>, the Habs led 3-2 on the strength of a <a href=\"https:\/\/thehockeywriters.com\/docs\/cole-caufield\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Cole Caufield<\/a> hat trick, with less than 10 minutes left. Right after the Bruins scored one to pull even, Habs defenseman Alexandre Carrier got called for holding. Even if you didn\u2019t watch or hear about the game, you can probably see where this is going.<\/p>\n<p>In what amounted to 12 seconds of game time after the first Bruins goal, they scored again to pull ahead 4-3, which ended up being the final score. It was the third power-play goal in four opportunities the Canadiens gave up in the game, showcasing one of their biggest weaknesses on the season. At a 25th-ranked 76.9%, their penalty kill is bad.<\/p>\n<p>There\u2019s no other way to say it, and, if the refereeing is as inconsistent as it\u2019s been, especially in their direction <a href=\"https:\/\/www.habseyesontheprize.com\/montreal-canadiens-analysis-penalty-troubles-atlantic-context\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">compared to with regard to all other Atlantic teams<\/a> (whether through sheer coincidence or not), simply committing to staying disciplined won\u2019t be enough. They need to get better at killing penalties.<\/p>\n<p>1. Get At Least Average Goaltending<\/p>\n<p>Goalie <a href=\"https:\/\/thehockeywriters.com\/docs\/sam-montembeault\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">Sam Montembeault<\/a> was also exposed on those two Bruins goals, taking the loss during a season in which he\u2019s struggled significantly. It\u2019s ironic, because, <a href=\"https:\/\/moneypuck.com\/goalies.htm\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">according to stats compiled MoneyPuck.com<\/a>, he\u2019s allowed a team-worst -3.1 goals saved above expected, but he\u2019s also the team\u2019s best while playing at four on five (2.3).<\/p>\n<p><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"827\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/02\/Montreal-Canadiens-Sam-Montembeault-1200x827.jpg\" alt=\"Montreal Canadiens Sam Montembeault\" class=\"wp-image-1551758\"  \/>Montreal Canadiens goalie Sam Montembeault \u2013 (Eric Bolte-Imagn Images)<\/p>\n<p>It\u2019s the inverse situation for Jakub Dobes, who seems to have taken over as the team\u2019s starter after the Bruins loss. It goes to show there are no easy solutions here. While Dobes has been effective overall with an 18-5-4 record, he still has an .892 save percentage (SV%). The league average is .896%. So, even from their most effective goalie, the Canadiens aren\u2019t technically getting average goaltending.<\/p>\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center\">Related: <a href=\"https:\/\/thehockeywriters.com\/10-stats-that-define-canadiens-2025-26-season-at-olympic-break\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">10 Stats that Define the Canadiens\u2019 2025-26 Season at Olympic Break<\/a><\/p>\n<p>They\u2019ve obviously gotten by with an incredibly dynamic, third-ranked offense, which will serve them well down the stretch, but it begs the question just how much better off would they be had they been getting even average goaltending all this time. What\u2019s done is done though, and Canadiens fans should at least be grateful the Habs are where they are in the standings, which is objectively impressive considering they finished in last place in 2022.<\/p>\n<p>No one should expect Dobes or Montembeault to put up performances reminiscent of Carey Price in his peak\u2026 or even during the 2021 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Age 33, which would be the last regular action he\u2019d see before \u201cretiring.\u201d In fact, the stats say you <a href=\"https:\/\/thehockeywriters.com\/canadiens-goalie-carey-price-is-not-the-key-to-a-stanley-cup\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">don\u2019t need elite goaltending to win<\/a> it all, but below-average play in net won\u2019t get it done either.<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/thehockeywriters.substack.com\/s\/montreal-canadiens\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\" noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"122\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/01\/Canadiens_Banner-1200x122.jpg\" alt=\"SUBSCRIBE FOR FREE TO OUR MONTREAL CANADIENS SUBSTACK NEWSLETTER\" class=\"wp-image-1567219\"  \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Thankfully, since Marco Marciano got hired as the team\u2019s <a href=\"https:\/\/www.sportsnet.ca\/nhl\/article\/raymonds-rise-and-fall-with-canadiens-a-cautionary-tale-for-marciano\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\">new (interim) goaltending coach<\/a>, non-coincidentally soon following the aforementioned loss to the Bruins, the Canadiens are 3-0-1, with a .922 SV%. One of those wins even came against the division-rival Sabres, showing that things continue to look up relatively speaking for the Habs.<\/p>\n<p>For the record, their penalty kill was only successful 10 out of 13 times in those games for a success rate of 76.9%, in line with how they\u2019ve fared all season long. So, they\u2019re two for three, as far as this list goes, which, again, has them just barely holding on to second place in the division. It\u2019s good, but not good enough if they want to pull away and earn home ice. And why wouldn\u2019t they now that they\u2019ve established they theoretically can? 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heading&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":458832,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5103],"tags":[1603,265,5,909,48209,264,21,5147,4,970],"class_list":{"0":"post-458831","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-montreal-canadiens","8":"tag-alexandre-carrier","9":"tag-canadiens","10":"tag-hockey","11":"tag-jakub-dobes","12":"tag-marco-marciano","13":"tag-montreal","14":"tag-montreal-canadiens","15":"tag-montrealcanadiens","16":"tag-nhl","17":"tag-sam-montembeault"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116075331714487108","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/458831","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=458831"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/458831\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/458832"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=458831"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=458831"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=458831"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}