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<\/a><\/p>\nEastern Conference<\/p>\n
Last time around I told you I had no idea what would happen in the East. One month later, it\u2019s still extremely unclear. The Tampa Bay Lightning and Carolina Hurricanes are locks, and the Montreal Canadiens are probably safe too. The New York Rangers are out while the New Jersey Devils and Philadelphia Flyers look unlikely. The other 10 teams are still in it to varying degrees.<\/p>\n
The best shots belong to three teams that didn\u2019t make it last year: the Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins. While their positions look firm, difficult schedules and weak track records warrant slight caution. The Penguins are one to watch depending on how much time Sidney Crosby is forced to miss<\/a> and they have the league\u2019s toughest remaining schedule.<\/p>\n In the next tier, the red hot Blue Jackets look poised to take the playoff leap while the model still has faith in the Capitals to turn things around. That really depends on the Islanders and Bruins crashing back to earth. Boston has been a streaky team all season, but was fantastic in January.<\/p>\n As for the three Atlantic teams that made the playoffs last year, it\u2019s getting to a point where a return feels unlikely. Florida has the easiest remaining schedule of the three while the Senators have the strongest underlying numbers this season.<\/p>\n Western Conference<\/p>\n As has been the case all season, the West is a lot more cut-and-dry than the East. The Colorado Avalanche, Dallas Stars and Vegas Golden Knights have been virtual locks all season while the Minnesota Wild joined them after acquiring Quinn Hughes.<\/p>\n After them, the Utah Mammoth, Los Angeles Kings, Anaheim Ducks and Edmonton Oilers look likely, although there is some room for surprise. The Kings added Artemi Panarin and have the league\u2019s easiest remaining schedule, while the Ducks aren\u2019t far behind. The Oilers have the toughest schedule of the four, which is what makes their position the most precarious at the moment.<\/p>\n The Seattle Kraken are currently in a playoff spot, but their underlying numbers and schedule make them tough to bet on. Ditto for a Sharks team that\u2019s slowing down and a Predators\u2019 team poised to sell. And while it\u2019s probably too late for the Jets, it\u2019s not hard to envision Connor Hellebuyck\u2019s Olympic greatness spilling over to a stretch run winning streak.<\/p>\n On the riseAnaheim Ducks<\/p>\n After a December crash, the Ducks are back on the rise, looking like the up-and-coming team we all witnessed in October. Anaheim went 9-2-0 into the break to leap back into the playoff picture and put itself on very strong footing. It would take a lot going wrong for the Ducks to miss now, especially with one of the league\u2019s easiest schedules coming up.<\/p>\n There were two keys to Anaheim\u2019s return: Luk\u00e1\u0161 Dost\u00e1l getting back up to speed and the team controlling play.\u00a0<\/p>\n Dost\u00e1l had trouble in the immediate aftermath of his injury where he was getting shelled on a nightly basis. Over the last month, though, he was able to lock in and get back on his elite goalie trajectory. Dostal posted a .924 during the last month and had the league\u2019s third-best GSAx.<\/p>\n It helps to have support and it\u2019s starting to look like the team in front of him is gelling in that regard. They had a 53 percent xG share, the seventh-best mark in the league, over the last month. And that was despite missing Leo Carlsson for all but two games. Beckett Sennecke really stepped up in his absence.<\/p>\n The Ducks are back on track and saw the biggest Net Rating increase of any team as a result \u2014 along with the largest playoff odds bump on top of that.<\/p>\n Buffalo Sabres<\/p>\n After a decade-plus of bad beats, bad vibes, bad bounces, bad players, bad management and other bad Buffalo-isms, the tide has finally turned for the Sabres. For the first time in a long time, the Sabres finally look like a legitimate threat (and long-time readers will remember that was not the case from this model in 2022-23). A 10-4-2 run over the last month amidst a 21-5-2 heater will have that effect.<\/p>\n The Sabres aren\u2019t out of the woods yet, but they are damn close if they can finish the regular season strong. Their playoff odds raced above 50 percent and peaked above 80 percent on the back of the team leaning into its offensive identity. No team scored more goals per 60 over the last month than Buffalo\u2019s 4.09, which was a big part of the team\u2019s increase in Offensive Rating. Sure, some of that was shooting-percentage-induced, but this is still a team that\u2019s become loaded with offensive weapons.<\/p>\n Buffalo\u2019s depth advantage is really starting to come together into an edge that can seriously overwhelm opponents with guys like Ryan McLeod and Jack Quinn scoring in bunches over the last month. But it also helps that the team\u2019s stars are leveling up too. Tage Thompson scored 21 points in 16 games while Rasmus Dahlin scored 20 from the back end.<\/p>\n While I\u2019m a little unsure about how Buffalo\u2019s defense is trending during that same stretch \u2014 third-last xGA\/60, leading to just a 46 percent xG rate \u2014 the offensive vibes are too good to ignore. If they can tighten things up while keeping up the goal-scoring binge, the Sabres\u2019 long playoff-less nightmare may actually come to an end. For real this time.<\/p>\n Boston Bruins<\/p>\n One month ago I said to pencil the Bruins out. Shows what I know.<\/p>\n While I still expect the Bruins to fall out of the mix, they\u2019ve become impossible to ignore over the last month as their latest hot streak extended further and further. It felt unlikely that the Bruins as constructed could put together a 10-1-3 stretch, but here they are. And to their credit, it looked genuine enough to warrant a healthy upgrade in their underlying strength. Only Anaheim saw a higher increase in their Net Rating over the last month.<\/p>\n After months of being one of the league\u2019s lesser possession teams, the Bruins were above-average in January. They executed well on top of that and their power play continues to be a legitimate source of strength. David Pastrnak in particular has been especially good, leading the team every night while becoming one of the league\u2019s best playmakers. Over the last month Pastrnak had 20 assists in 14 games, tied for the league lead with Nikita Kucherov. Add an elite starting goalie to that (Jeremy Swayman was top-10 in GSAx) and the Bruins have the makings of a team that could make the playoffs. They\u2019ll just need to find a way to get there beyond putting up a 107 PDO.<\/p>\n Columbus Blue Jackets<\/p>\n For much of this season it felt like the Blue Jackets had more to give, as my model stubbornly refused to push their playoff odds down even as the losses piled up. The talent was there, the execution wasn\u2019t. Still, an 18-19-7 record was not enough to deter the model from believing in Columbus. A 20 percent shot for the last place team in the East is pretty high for a team that didn\u2019t make the playoffs last year.<\/p>\n Enter Rick Bowness, who has coaxed a 10-1-0 record out of Columbus that has the team back on track. Columbus\u2019 playoff odds jumped 30 percentage points over the last month, the fourth-most in the league.<\/p>\n The big news is that what the Blue Jackets are doing looks genuinely sustainable too. Their 54 percent xG at five-on-five ranks fifth and their power play has been fantastic on top of that. With a genuinely strong goalie tandem at their disposal, the Blue Jackets look legit and now look like a favorite to make the playoffs. The model never stopped believing and you\u2019re seeing exactly why now.<\/p>\n Honorable mentions<\/p>\n Pittsburgh Penguins<\/p>\n The only reason the Penguins land in the \u2018honorable mentions\u2019 section is because of how difficult the road ahead is. They have the toughest schedule going forward and may have to figure things out without their captain for the next little bit. But given their recent pay, they may be actually equipped to do so. Pittsburgh\u2019s fundamental process has been sound most of the year and was taken a step further over the last month with a 55 percent xG rate and an elite penalty kill. That manifested into a 9-3-3 record; will that be enough for one last playoff run with Crosby, Malkin and Letang?<\/p>\n Seattle Kraken<\/p>\n The Kraken continue to hang onto a playoff spot and are slowly gaining respect for that. Seattle\u2019s xG rate was still not great over the last month, but at 46 percent it was a step in the right direction with some decent defensive numbers backing that up. The Kraken face the league\u2019s second most difficult schedule going forward which dulls their playoff odds, but they have a real shot to keep defying the odds.<\/p>\n Falling offFlorida Panthers<\/p>\n There are two main things the Panthers have had to deal with this season: untimely injuries and bad goaltending.<\/p>\n The injuries have been a real killer as the team has not been able to ice a full non-Barkov lineup yet. Even with Matthew Tkachuk returning, the Panthers then had to deal with injuries to Seth Jones, Brad Marchand and Aaron Ekblad \u2014 all difference-makers. It\u2019s left the team wanting often and led to an ugly month where the team went 7-8-0, with merely average xG numbers behind it. Losing five of the last six is what really caused their odds to nosedive.<\/p>\n It\u2019s goaltending, though, that\u2019s been the story. We warned before the season that Sergei Bobrovsky might struggle to shoulder the load after some so-so regular seasons and lengthy playoff runs. That\u2019s exactly what\u2019s happened so far, with January being his toughest month. Bobrovsky had one of the worst GSAx numbers in the league which manifested in a 38 percent goal rate at five-on-five for the month.<\/p>\n If there\u2019s any solace for the Panthers, it\u2019s that almost every team they\u2019re chasing has a brutal schedule coming up while the Panthers have one of the easiest. Still, the team is far enough back that it may be too little too late. For the first time all year the Panthers fell below 50 percent playoff odds, dropping a league-worst 35 percentage points in January. It may be time to count the two-time defending champions out.<\/p>\n New Jersey Devils<\/p>\n The Devils already looked like an unlikely playoff bet at the start of the month. Things have only gotten worse since, to the point that it would take a near-miracle for the Devils to salvage this season. New Jersey is down to a 1-in-20 shot at making it after going 6-8-0 over the last month.<\/p>\n Getting Olympic hero Jack Hughes back and 100 percent healthy is a start. But it\u2019s become clear this season (and last) that the Devils have tried too hard to become something they\u2019re not. The Devils used to have one of the league\u2019s most dynamic offenses, but have struggled to create to the same degree over the last two years. That\u2019s come to a head lately where the team\u2019s Offensive Rating has now been downgraded severely from average to minus-17.5. That ranks 26th in the league. Was that offensive sacrifice worth it to create a just-barely-above-average defense? Probably not.<\/p>\n Watching Hughes consistently create offense from nothing in an Olympic setting amidst low usage made it feel like a Devils problem more than a personnel problem. He wasn\u2019t the only one showing more offensively, either. This team should be better, but it\u2019s time to face reality that it just isn\u2019t working as currently constructed. Whatever they\u2019re doing led to a disappointing 91-point season last year. This year has been even worse.<\/p>\n Washington Capitals<\/p>\n I keep expecting the Capitals to turn things around, and the team keeps struggling. The Capitals went on a middling 7-7-1 run over the last month while every other team around them got hot, leading to the team being pushed farther down the East. Their playoff odds took a real downturn at the start of the month, pushing the Capitals right into the playoff bubble.<\/p>\n For Washington, the problem really comes down to poor sequencing where the Capitals haven\u2019t won as many close games as they\u2019ve needed to. Their plus-12 goal differential is tied for sixth in the East and yet they sit 12th in points percentage. Tough.<\/p>\n It\u2019s possible the Capitals can be better going forward with the return of Pierre-Luc Dubois to the lineup. But in a competitive East, it will take more than that to leapfrog four teams. A once-safe bet now looks closer to a coin flip. That some unexpected teams continue to have playoff staying power has made it difficult for last year\u2019s surprise contenders to keep up.<\/p>\n Edmonton Oilers<\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n