{"id":480670,"date":"2026-03-02T11:16:15","date_gmt":"2026-03-02T11:16:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/480670\/"},"modified":"2026-03-02T11:16:15","modified_gmt":"2026-03-02T11:16:15","slug":"nhl-weekend-rankings-5-post-olympic-break-overreactions-unless-theyre-not","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/480670\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL weekend rankings: 5 post-Olympic break overreactions (unless they\u2019re not)"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Welcome back to the NHL weekend rankings, returning after a three-week Olympic break. Aw, I missed you too.<\/p>\n<p>Of course, those three weeks only contained a handful of NHL games for each team, so in theory our outlook on the league shouldn\u2019t have changed too much. In theory, sure. But this is the real world, where half our job as fans is to overreact to anything and everything.<\/p>\n<p>So today, before we get to the top five and bottom five, let\u2019s first take a moment to pick a few teams and go way overboard based on their first few games back from the Olympic break.<\/p>\n<p>Bonus five: Overreactions to the NHL\u2019s first week back (or are they?)<\/p>\n<p>5. The Toronto Maple Leafs are cooked \u2013 No argument here, right? They went into the break on a three-game win streak that offered just a smidge of hope that they could get back in the race, but three regulation losses have put an end to that. Now they\u2019re sellers, and they should be selling big. How big? Mirtle <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7078232\/2026\/03\/01\/maple-leafs-trade-deadline-retool-rebuild\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">weighs in here<\/a>, and Jonas is already justifiably wondering if <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7075565\/2026\/02\/27\/maple-leafs-treliving-pelley-nhl\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">they\u2019ll screw it up<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>4. The Columbus Blue Jackets were fun while they lasted \u2013 No team had worse timing around the Olympic break than the Jackets, who were the hottest team in hockey when the league shut down. Coming out of the break, they\u2019ve lost their first two, including a crucial one against the wild-card Boston Bruins and another in overtime to the lowly New York Rangers. It\u2019s not over by any stretch, but any hopes they could continue to ride their momentum have been quashed.<\/p>\n<p>3. The Buffalo Sabres haven\u2019t missed a beat \u2013 At the other end of the momentum spectrum are the Sabres, who were hot going into the break and somehow came out of it looking even better. They\u2019ve started with three straight wins, all on the road and all in regulation, including Saturday\u2019s stomping of the Tampa Bay Lightning. At this point, the playoffs are getting close to a lock and first place in the Atlantic isn\u2019t completely out of the question. This is happening, folks.<\/p>\n<p>2. Wait, isn\u2019t the deadline in a few days? \u2013 It\u2019s been a week since the Olympic trade freeze ended, and so far we\u2019ve had exactly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7068244\/2026\/02\/24\/nhl-trade-grades-brett-kulak-sam-girard-avalanche-penguins\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">one trade of any consequence<\/a> with the real-thing deadline coming on Friday. If that feels weird, it\u2019s because it is weird. The week before the deadline is usually a lot busier than this.<\/p>\n<p>This time last year, we\u2019d already had the Seth Jones trade. The year before, Chris Tanev had already been moved. The year before that, Timo Meier, Dmitry Orlov, Jake McCabe and Tanner Jeannot had all been dealt with four days to go.<\/p>\n<p>Most of the bigger moves tend to happen in the two or three days before the deadline, which is to say right about now. So there\u2019s still time. But with the Olympics potentially throwing a wrench into the normal workflow, you have to wonder when GMs are going to get cooking. They\u2019re already behind schedule.<\/p>\n<p>1. The Los Angeles Kings are broken \u2013 I had them on the list even before yesterday\u2019s news, but <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6892153\/2026\/03\/01\/los-angeles-kings-coach-fired-jim-hiller\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Ken Holland\u2019s decision to make a coaching change<\/a> only reinforces it. Jim Hiller was a popular \u201cfirst coach fired\u201d pick heading into the season, and while he stuck around long enough for Dean Evason to steal that honor, this change felt inevitable. Having D.J. Smith around as an assistant with recent head coaching experience should make for a smooth transition.<\/p>\n<p>But a transition to what? The Kings looked absolutely awful in their first two games back, giving up 14 goals in a pair of losses that dropped them down to tenth in the West. Ironically, they followed that up with a tidy 2-0 win over the Flames on Saturday, but by that point Holland had reportedly <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/IcemanAthletic\/status\/2028190824727760974\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">already made his decision<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>And it\u2019s hard to argue, given how tenuous the path to a playoff spot looks right now. Remember, Holland already went out and got Artemi Panarin, arguably the biggest name available at this year\u2019s deadline. An extension meant that move wasn\u2019t a one-off rental, but you typically don\u2019t go out and add 34-year-olds unless you\u2019re in win-now mode. And the Kings weren\u2019t winning anywhere near often enough.<\/p>\n<p>We saw the Blue Jackets get a nice new coach bounce this year, and the Sabres somehow managed to get one from a GM change. If the Kings can follow suit, they might be OK as far as the wild-card chase. Do they have a best-case scenario beyond that? Based on the last week, that would be a no. Kings fans are hoping we\u2019re overreacting. I\u2019m not sure we are.<\/p>\n<p>On to this week\u2019s rankings\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Road to the Cup<\/p>\n<p>The five teams with the best chance of winning the Stanley Cup.<\/p>\n<p>If you missed it, the Oilers put Andrew Mangiapane on waivers yesterday; we\u2019ll find out if was claimed today. Either way, the move may spell the end of one of the offseason\u2019s weirdest signings, one that seemed destined to work but very much has not. And maybe more importantly, the move will free up some extra flexibility for the Oilers to make a much-needed move.<\/p>\n<p>5. Minnesota Wild (35-16-10, +24 true goals differential*) \u2013 Joe Smith <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7076584\/2026\/02\/28\/bill-guerin-olympic-gold-roster-criticism-team-usa\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">got some interesting comments from Bill Guerin<\/a> in the aftermath of Team USA\u2019s gold medal win, including some of the post-game controversy.<\/p>\n<p>4. Carolina Hurricanes (38-15-6, +37) \u2013 Here\u2019s my question: Are they a lock for top seed in the Metro? They came out of the weekend seven points up on the second-place Pittsburgh Penguins, which feels insurmountable with Sidney Crosby missing multiple weeks. The New York Islanders are hanging tough, but would need to continue their recent surge for at least another week or two. It feels like the Hurricanes are home and cooled, which could have some interesting implications for how they play things down the stretch.<\/p>\n<p>3. Dallas Stars (36-14-9, +36) \u2013 Eight straight wins, which could become ten with the Vancouver Canucks and Calgary Flames up next. And then comes the big showdown on deadline night: their first game against the Colorado Avalanche since the season\u2019s opening week.<\/p>\n<p>2. Tampa Bay Lightning (38-16-4, +54) \u2013 Two things can both be true: We all know they\u2019re not actually going to reacquire Steven Stamkos, and also it would be super cool if they did.<\/p>\n<p>1. Colorado Avalanche (39-10-9, +79) \u2013 So at what point, if any, do we start to worry here? On Jan. 3, this team won their tenth straight to move their record to a ridiculous 31-2-7. But since then they\u2019re a very pedestrian 8-8-2. You\u2019d expect them to cool off at some point, if only out of boredom. But we\u2019re coming up on two months of this being a fake .500 team. We have to start taking that seriously soon, right?<\/p>\n<p>*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.<\/p>\n<p>Not ranked: Vegas Golden Knights \u2013 We have to figure this Pacific Division thing out.<\/p>\n<p>That day is apparently not today, because we\u2019ve once again got a top five with three Central teams and nobody from the Pacific. If we\u2019re picking the best five teams at any given time, there\u2019s no reason they\u2019d have to be spread out nicely across divisions. But if we\u2019re trying to pick a Cup winner, there\u2019s an argument that what we have now can\u2019t work. Only one of those three Central powerhouses is going to make the conference final. And barring some crossover wild-card weirdness, there\u2019s going to be a Pacific team waiting there for them.<\/p>\n<p>Right now, that team sure seems like it should be the Knights. They\u2019ve spent the entire season doing just about everything other than pull away in a division they should win, but they still hold a comfortable lead. The Ducks, Kings and Kraken all have plenty of flaws, and the Oilers just refuse to look like a true contender. That leaves the Knights, even if it\u2019s by default. Doesn\u2019t it?<\/p>\n<p>The projections page sure thinks so \u2014 they have Vegas with <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/6694758\/2026\/03\/01\/nhl-2025-26-stanley-cup-playoff-chances-and-projected-standings\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">the fourth-best Cup odds<\/a>, ahead of teams like the Stars and Wild. That makes sense when you factor playoff path into the equation, and maybe we should be doing it too. By the end of the season, we probably will be. For now, it would be nice to see a bit more about how the Central shakes out.<\/p>\n<p>The bigger point is that it\u2019s not especially difficult to imagine the Knights team being the one that finally finds its top gear down the stretch, and next thing you know we\u2019re two rounds into the playoffs and everyone is saying of course Vegas look great, we should have all seen this coming. But this is also a team with fewer wins than the Ducks and Mammoth (and tied with the Kraken), and just one more regulation win than the Predators, Flames and Jets. Finally <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7068804\/2026\/02\/25\/nhl-standings-format-olympics-bettman\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">fix the standings<\/a> so that teams can\u2019t just play for free points in overtime and this season looks different.<\/p>\n<p>In other words, they should be good, but so far, they\u2019re not. Or at least they\u2019re not good often enough, including yesterday\u2019s 5-0 loss to the Penguins. And we\u2019re at the point where the beat writer\u2019s \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/JesseGranger_\/status\/2028202151986802726\" rel=\"nofollow noopener noreferrer\">they\u2019re obviously not going to fire the coach<\/a>\u201d shirt is raising questions already answered by his shirt.<\/p>\n<p>Then again, the Knights are just exploiting a system that\u2019s there for everyone. They tend to do that when it comes to the player market too, which makes this an interesting week. Do we get another big move from the Knights, or have they already crossed off everything on their shopping list? We\u2019ll find out over the next few days. But it may take a few more weeks to trust them enough to get them back into the top five. Even if that\u2019s where they probably belong.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"wp-image-7080251 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-content\/uploads\/2026\/03\/USATSI_28374528-scaled.jpg\" alt=\"Pittsburgh's Parker Wotherspoon checks Vegas' Reilly Smith, pushing him off balance.\" width=\"2560\" height=\"1688\"  \/><\/p>\n<p>\n      The Vegas Golden Knights are at the top of the Pacific Division, but don\u2019t quite look like they belong there. (Charles LeClaire \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n<p>The bottom five<\/p>\n<p>The five teams headed towards dead last, and the best lottery odds for the top pick in this year\u2019s draft and a shot at Gavin McKenna or Ivar Stenberg.<\/p>\n<p>I\u2019m just going to go ahead and say it, some of you readers are out of your minds if you don\u2019t think Connor Hellebuyck is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7074647\/2026\/02\/27\/connor-hellebuyck-best-goalies-history-olympics-nhl\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">easily a top-10 goalie of the modern era<\/a>, and a lot closer to top-five than he is to not being on the list at all. With three Vezinas, a Hart and now a gold medal, he\u2019s not quite knocking on the door of the Hasek\/Roy\/Brodeur trinity, but he\u2019s within arm\u2019s reach. The playoff resume is an issue, sure, but if you don\u2019t think a three-time Vezina winner is in the elite tier then I\u2019m not sure what to tell you.<\/p>\n<p>5. Chicago Blackhawks (23-28-9, -29) \u2013 Yesterday\u2019s impressive shutout win over Utah ended a post-break losing streak, which is either good news or not depending on where you\u2019re at on the importance of another high pick. On that note, with Winnipeg tomorrow and the Canucks on Thursday, this is shaping up as a big week for lottery odds.<\/p>\n<p>4. Calgary Flames (24-28-7, -26) \u2013 I\u2019ve got to be honest, I kind of like the idea of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7027555\/2026\/02\/17\/sabres-trade-deadline-forward-targets-thomas-mcmann\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Nazem Kadri going to the Sabres<\/a>. Let\u2019s make that happen.<\/p>\n<p>3. St. Louis Blues (21-29-9, -50) \u2013 No, see, hockey gods, when I said I wanted the team Doug Armstrong built to beat the team Bill Guerin built in a tight Sunday battle, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/nhl\/game\/minnesota-wild-vs-st.-louis-blues\/IViuRfausCB8kKVx\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">what I meant was<\/a>\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Anyway, this is the week the Blues either trade Robert Thomas and\/or Jordan Kyrou, or at least have to stop pretending for a few weeks. Exciting times. Here\u2019s Shayna on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7073527\/2026\/02\/28\/nhl-trade-deadline-jordan-kyrou-robert-thomas\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">what potential suitors should know<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>2. New York Rangers (23-29-7, -32) \u2013 Do you think it was awkward for Vincent Trochek and J.T. Miller and Mike Sullivan to have to stop their gold medal talk whenever Adam Fox entered the room? I bet it was super awkward.<\/p>\n<p>1. Vancouver Canucks (18-34-7, -68) \u2013 The latest from Drance not only captures the critical week ahead of the organization, it also <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7074812\/2026\/02\/27\/canucks-nhl-trade-deadline-2026-standings\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">makes use of the phrase \u201cvortex of ineptitude\u201d to do it<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Not ranked: New Jersey Devils \u2013 It\u2019s been a weird stretch of NHL schedule for Devils fans. Heading into the break, they lost three straight in regulation to essentially end any lingering playoff hopes. Coming out of it, they went right back to losing, a streak they snapped against the Blues on Saturday. They\u2019re done. Despite coming into the season with Cup hopes, they\u2019re going to miss the playoffs by a mile, while probably also almost certainly losing out on a top-five pick. What a disaster.<\/p>\n<p>Oh, and in between, the franchise player <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7078328\/2026\/03\/01\/snl-olympic-hockey-hughes-knight-keller\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">became a national hero<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>We\u2019ll stick to what Jack Hughes did on the ice, as opposed to the mess he and his teammates <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nytimes.com\/athletic\/7067917\/2026\/02\/24\/jack-hughes-quinn-usa-hockey-olympics-donald-trump\/\" rel=\"nofollow noopener\" target=\"_blank\">made off of it<\/a>. But scoring the biggest goal of his career, and the biggest in American hockey since 1980, is the kind of thing that can redirect a player\u2019s career. Mario Lemieux used his 1987 Canada Cup winner to signal that he was well and truly ready to take the torch from Wayne Gretzky. Hughes may not be in the \u201cbest player in the world\u201d discussion, but will we look back at the 2026 Olympics as a turning point in his career trajectory?<\/p>\n<p>And maybe more importantly, if you\u2019re a Devils fan, does that potentially save an otherwise miserable season? Ever since being taken first overall in 2019, Hughes has essentially done two thing at the NHL level: flash the kind of elite-level talent few players have, and then fail to do it for long enough to truly be considered for the league\u2019s top tier.<\/p>\n<p>Thanks to inconsistency and (mostly) injury, he\u2019s only had one full season of top production, and that came back in 2022-23. Seven seasons into his career, he\u2019s been a worthy No. 1 pick, but not the kind that transforms a franchise.<\/p>\n<p>Right now, the Devils could use some transforming. Barring a miracle down the stretch, this year\u2019s miss will be their second in three years, wrapped around last year\u2019s brief appearance that saw them go out in five. Winning one playoff game in three years doesn\u2019t sound like contender status, and the 2022-23 team that had 112 points and at least won a round feels like a lifetime ago.<\/p>\n<p>That\u2019s led to speculation of some big moves to come, including a busy rumor mill for Dougie Hamilton. Is that enough? Probably not, but after missing out on the Quinn Hughes deal we all figured would be a sure thing, there aren\u2019t any easy answers here. There\u2019s also the question of whether Tom Fitzgerald will even get the chance to be turn this around, or whether a new GM is incoming. If so, what does that mean for Sheldon Keefe? Can you really start over when you\u2019ve built the roster around two top picks in their prime?<\/p>\n<p>Like we said, no easy answers. Except for one: Hughes using his big moment as a launching pad to finally looking like that consistent Hart-level franchise player would go a long way towards moving the needle in the right direction. It might even change how the 2025-26 season is remembered in New Jersey, from yet another disappointment to the start of a new era. Let\u2019s see how it plays out.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Welcome back to the NHL weekend rankings, returning after a three-week Olympic break. Aw, I missed you too.&hellip;\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":480671,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5116],"tags":[193,229,26,29,96,192,144,5277,230,147,5,145,38,151,35,4,84,92,31,27,39],"class_list":{"0":"post-480670","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-colorado-avalanche","8":"tag-avalanche","9":"tag-buffalo-sabres","10":"tag-calgary-flames","11":"tag-carolina-hurricanes","12":"tag-chicago-blackhawks","13":"tag-colorado","14":"tag-colorado-avalanche","15":"tag-coloradoavalanche","16":"tag-columbus-blue-jackets","17":"tag-dallas-stars","18":"tag-hockey","19":"tag-los-angeles-kings","20":"tag-minnesota-wild","21":"tag-new-jersey-devils","22":"tag-new-york-rangers","23":"tag-nhl","24":"tag-st-louis-blues","25":"tag-tampa-bay-lightning","26":"tag-toronto-maple-leafs","27":"tag-vancouver-canucks","28":"tag-vegas-golden-knights"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116159301827080277","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/480670","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=480670"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/480670\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/480671"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=480670"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=480670"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=480670"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}