{"id":508565,"date":"2026-03-17T22:50:21","date_gmt":"2026-03-17T22:50:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/508565\/"},"modified":"2026-03-17T22:50:21","modified_gmt":"2026-03-17T22:50:21","slug":"expert-picks-for-the-2026-ncaa-tournament-bracket-why-brendan-marks-has-duke-winning-it-all","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/508565\/","title":{"rendered":"Expert picks for the 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket: Why Brendan Marks has Duke winning it all"},"content":{"rendered":"

The Athletic has live coverage of the First Four<\/a> from 2026 Men\u2019s March Madness.<\/a><\/p>\n

Let\u2019s try this again.<\/p>\n

Last postseason, I picked Duke<\/a> \u2014 the top team in KenPom\u2019s rankings at the time, led by a freshman Wooden Award winner \u2014 to win the national title, beating a fellow No. 1 seed in the title game. That prediction looked good for a while, until the Blue Devils\u2019 all-time collapse to Houston in the Final Four<\/a>. Instead of hanging a sixth banner in Durham, that team earned an infamous honorific: one of the best teams ever to not win it all.<\/p>\n

But this year, I\u2019m running it back. Give me Duke \u2014 again the top team in KenPom\u2019s rankings, led by the likely freshman Wooden Award winner \u2014 to cut down the nets in April. And, yeah, I\u2019m even doubling down on my prediction that Jon Scheyer\u2019s team sees another No. 1 seed on the final Monday of this season.<\/p>\n

My rationale, much like last March, starts with Duke\u2019s generational freshman superstar: Cameron Boozer, who leads the Blue Devils \u2014 like Cooper Flagg a year ago \u2014 in almost every major statistical category.<\/p>\n

But beyond the future top-three NBA Draft pick, this Duke squad is the definition of sum over parts. It still has NBA talent \u2014 maybe not so much that every starter will be drafted in June, like last year\u2019s team \u2014 but its strength is its role definition, the key to a record-tying 12 ranked wins this season. (The only other team ever with 12 ranked wins entering March Madness is Arizona, which I have Duke facing in an all-time championship game.) Everyone buying into Jon Scheyer\u2019s scheme is the reason the Blue Devils are 7-2 in games decided by 6 points or less this season, with their only two losses all year \u2014 to Texas Tech on a neutral site, and rival UNC on the road \u2014 coming by a combined 4 points, after Duke led by double digits in both contests.<\/p>\n

I am a little worried about Duke\u2019s injury situation, with point guard Caleb Foster out at least until the Final Four, if not the rest of the season. But Cayden Boozer\u2019s performance during the ACC tournament \u2014 and his twin brother\u2019s consistency \u2014 impressed me enough not to waver on the best team in the sport all season.<\/p>\n

First
Round<\/p>\n

Second
Round<\/p>\n

Sweet 16<\/p>\n

Elite
Eight<\/p>\n

Final
Four<\/p>\n

Final
Four<\/p>\n

Elite
Eight<\/p>\n

Sweet 16<\/p>\n

Second
Round<\/p>\n

First
Round<\/p>\n

\t\tEast<\/p>\n

Final Four pick: Duke<\/p>\n

The most stacked region in the bracket, the East features Scheyer, Rick Pitino, Bill Self, Tom Izzo, Mick Cronin and Dan Hurley. Six coaches who have made a Final Four, with 23 combined appearances, and you could reasonably argue for any of them adding another in the coming weeks. Ultimately, though, it\u2019s hard to ignore Duke\u2019s experience winning close games \u2014 including over two other No. 1 seeds in Michigan and Florida, plus Izzo\u2019s Michigan State team.<\/p>\n

Most stressful decision: St. John\u2019s over Kansas<\/p>\n

Kansas is the most unpredictable team in the NCAA Tournament, as capable of making the Final Four as it is crashing out in the round of 32. That\u2019s especially true against a St. John\u2019s team that\u2019s only lost once since Jan. 6. Darryn Peterson \u2014 the potential No. 1 pick in this summer\u2019s NBA Draft \u2014 is as talented as anyone, but who knows how (or if) he\u2019ll play in March, following one of the strangest seasons in recent memory.<\/p>\n

Best chance at an upset: South Florida over Louisville<\/p>\n

Louisville freshman Mikel Brown Jr. \u2014 a likely lottery pick this summer \u2014 missed the ACC tournament with a reaggravated back injury, and did not 100 percent commit to being ready for the Cardinals\u2019 NCAA Tournament opener. Without him, Louisville\u2019s shot quality falls off markedly, which is scary, because nine of its 10 losses have come when shooting under 36 percent from 3-point range. Without Brown, the Cards could chuck themselves right out of the Big Dance.<\/p>\n

Matchup I hope we see: Duke vs. UConn<\/p>\n

I\u2019ve been manifesting this matchup for weeks, either in the Elite Eight or Final Four. Because what more could you ask for? Two of the most storied brands in college basketball. Elite coaches. Bloodthirsty fans. You could \u2014 and I would \u2014 argue these are two of the top five programs going in the modern era, as poised to stay at the top as anyone.<\/p>\n

Midwest<\/p>\n

Final Four pick: Michigan<\/p>\n

Ever since the Players Era Festival in November, I haven\u2019t been able to un-see Michigan bludgeoning Gonzaga by 40 points, using the best defense and frontline in college basketball to deal Mark Few the worst loss of his Zags career. Big Ten Player of the Year Yaxel Lendeborg is as versatile a player as there is in the country, 7-foot-3 center Aday Mara is a shot-blocking and passing savant, and Morez Johnson Jr. is basically a human battering ram with basketball magnets for hands. The Wolverines have their pressure points \u2014 3-point shooting and turnovers, mainly \u2014 but a favorable regional draw lacks many teams with the personnel to punish UM.<\/p>\n

Most stressful decision: Iowa State over Virginia<\/p>\n

Virginia pushed Duke to the brink in the ACC championship game, and its nine-deep rotation has an underrated blend of versatility, shot-making and rim protection. But Iowa State forward Joshua Jefferson has arguably been the best player in the country not named Cameron Boozer \u2014 a dizzying 6-9 blend of passing, rebounding and defense \u2014 while Milan Momcilovic is the second-best 3-point shooter in America, at 49.6 percent from deep.<\/p>\n

Best chance at an upset: Miami (Ohio) over SMU<\/p>\n

The RedHawks are 6.5-point underdogs as of Monday night for their First Four game, so it would count as an upset. But after nail-biting my way through multiple of Miami\u2019s nine one-possession or overtime wins this season, I believe the RedHawks are capable of winning a game in March. That they drew inconsistent SMU \u2014 which allegedly will return its best defender, BJ Edwards, after missed games \u2014 only boosts the chance of a win for a ready-made Cinderella. Oh, and one more thing? Take the over.<\/p>\n

Matchup I hope we see: Michigan vs. Iowa State<\/p>\n

Lendeborg against Jefferson would be one of the most fun forward matchups all season, but the real juice here is two top-five defenses with clear stylistical differences. Michigan uses its gargantuan size to build a force field around the rim, while ISU \u2014 per usual, under TJ Otzelberger \u2014 thrives on picking opponents\u2019 pockets and scoring points off turnovers. I\u2019m not sure the Cyclones have the frontcourt strength to hang with Michigan, but they absolutely have the 3-point prowess to level the field.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Arizona, led by Jaden Bradley, has been both clutch and balanced all season. (Chris Coduto \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

West<\/p>\n

Final Four pick: Arizona<\/p>\n

Arizona, like Duke, has been one of the most clutch teams in college basketball, going 6-2 in games decided by one or two possessions, with four of those wins over eventual No. 1 or 2 seeds: Florida, UConn, Iowa State and Houston. That\u2019s in no small part because of Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley, the most clutch player in the entire tournament. (Go watch his late-game heroics against Florida \u2026 or UCLA \u2026 or Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament.) Including Bradley, Tommy Lloyd has seven players averaging between 9 and 19 points per game, making for the most balanced team in America<\/a>. There\u2019s nothing not to like.<\/p>\n

Most stressful decision: Arkansas over Wisconsin<\/p>\n

Before the bracket reveal, this could\u2019ve been a trendy Sweet 16 game \u2014 or even a sleeper Elite Eight bout. Instead, it\u2019s the juiciest round of 32 matchup, featuring some of the most explosive scoring guards in the field. Nick Boyd and John Blackwell are playing terrific for the Badgers right now, but SEC Player of the Year Darius Acuff Jr. is on a Kemba Walker-esque heater, averaging 28.5 points, 6.5 assists and shooting 50 percent from 3 over his last eight games.<\/p>\n

Best chance at an upset: BYU over Gonzaga<\/p>\n

Mark Few said not to expect center Braden Huff \u2014 who hasn\u2019t played since Jan. 8 because of a serious knee injury \u2014 to suit up the first weekend, which puts Gonzaga in trouble against the most talented individual scorer in college basketball, BYU freshman AJ Dybantsa. The Cougars skidded down the stretch, especially after losing Richie Saunders to a torn ACL, but the 6-9 Dybantsa is the type of player who can single-handedly win Kevin Young\u2019s team a few games.<\/p>\n

Matchup I hope we see: Arizona vs. Arkansas<\/p>\n

If anyone can give the Wildcats a run for their money in the West, it\u2019ll be John Calipari and the Hogs, who enter March as one of college basketball\u2019s hottest teams<\/a>. Acuff looks like a top-five NBA Draft pick with his current form, but Calipari \u2014 whose success this season has Kentucky fans in shambles \u2014 has sneakily built a well-balanced, explosive, athletic group around him. I still side with Arizona\u2019s size and balance, but Arkansas\u2019 top-six offense won\u2019t go away lightly.<\/p>\n

South<\/p>\n

Final Four pick: Florida<\/p>\n

Per Bart Torvik, UF has been the third-best team in college basketball since the new year, and one of just three squads \u2014 alongside Duke and Arizona \u2014 with a top-10 offense and defense. UF started the year 5-4 with narrow losses to Arizona, Duke and UConn, but has rounded into form by playing through its frontcourt, which returned from last season\u2019s title team. Florida is top 10 in offensive and defensive rebounding rate, and while its season-long shooting splits look dire \u2014 just 30.8 percent from 3, a sub-300 mark nationally \u2014 the Gators have also quietly made 37.5 percent from deep over their last seven games. Going back-to-back is on the table.<\/p>\n

Most stressful decision: Illinois over Houston<\/p>\n

Picking against Houston and Kelvin Sampson just feels wrong, especially with such a dynamic lead guard in freshman Kingston Flemings. But the Coogs\u2019 defense hasn\u2019t been up to its typical standard this season, and Houston is still prone to untimely bouts of stagnant offense. On the flip side, while Illinois has lost five of its last nine, four of those were by one possession in overtime. This may age poorly, but I\u2019m too intoxicated by the Balkan Bloc\u2019s<\/a> offensive upside.<\/p>\n

Best chance at an upset: Texas A&M over Saint Mary\u2019s<\/p>\n

Bucky McMillan has worked wonders his first season at A&M (and at the high-major level), and if you\u2019re not prepared for his trademark \u201cBucky Ball\u201d \u2014 full-court pressing for a full 40 minutes \u2014 then it\u2019s easy for it to get the better of you. Saint Mary\u2019s isn\u2019t particularly sound with the ball, nor does it have the athletes the Aggies do, which could prove a fatal combination against a team playing with house money.<\/p>\n

Matchup I hope we see: Vanderbilt vs. Nebraska<\/p>\n

Mostly because this means Nebraska will have finally won its first NCAA Tournament game, but also because it guarantees at least one of this season\u2019s best stories makes the Sweet 16. Plus, Mark Byington\u2019s offense against the Huskers\u2019 no-middle defense \u2014 what Texas Tech famously used to make the 2019 NCAA championship game \u2014 would be a compelling chess match, even beyond the off-court storylines.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Athletic has live coverage of the First Four from 2026 Men\u2019s March Madness. Let\u2019s try this again.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":508566,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[462],"tags":[59596,39354,43627,59603,59370,44003,4818,38815,39353,48473,59589,5,59592,4817,59598,59588,44002,58162,57738,43909,59378,43908,59602,59600,32291,4819,59597,14735,3119,12283,59591,4,465,466,59371,357,29180,59594,59590,50281,59595,26535,13617,59587,33372,2415,59601,45703,35138,39359,58013,34705,59367,59599,46547,39350,50284,30800,59369,6552,59593],"class_list":{"0":"post-508565","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nhl-draft","8":"tag-akron-zips","9":"tag-alabama-crimson-tide","10":"tag-arizona-wildcats","11":"tag-arkansas-razorbacks","12":"tag-clemson-tigers","13":"tag-connecticut-huskies","14":"tag-duke-blue-devils","15":"tag-florida-gators","16":"tag-georgia-bulldogs","17":"tag-hawaii-rainbow-warriors","18":"tag-high-point-panthers","19":"tag-hockey","20":"tag-hofstra-pride","21":"tag-houston-cougars","22":"tag-howard-bison","23":"tag-idaho-vandals","24":"tag-illinois-fighting-illini","25":"tag-iowa-hawkeyes","26":"tag-iowa-state-cyclones","27":"tag-kansas-jayhawks","28":"tag-kennesaw-state-owls","29":"tag-kentucky-wildcats","30":"tag-lehigh-mountain-hawks","31":"tag-long-island-university-sharks","32":"tag-louisville-cardinals","33":"tag-mens-college-basketball","34":"tag-miami-oh-redhawks","35":"tag-miami-hurricanes","36":"tag-michigan-state-spartans","37":"tag-michigan-wolverines","38":"tag-nebraska-cornhuskers","39":"tag-nhl","40":"tag-nhl-draft","41":"tag-nhl-entry-draft","42":"tag-north-carolina-state-wolfpack","43":"tag-north-carolina-tar-heels","44":"tag-ohio-state-buckeyes","45":"tag-penn-quakers","46":"tag-purdue-boilermakers","47":"tag-saint-louis-billikens","48":"tag-siena-saints","49":"tag-smu-mustangs","50":"tag-south-florida-bulls","51":"tag-st-johns-red-storm","52":"tag-tcu-horned-frogs","53":"tag-tennessee","54":"tag-tennessee-state-tigers","55":"tag-texas-am-aggies","56":"tag-texas-longhorns","57":"tag-texas-tech-red-raiders","58":"tag-ucf-knights","59":"tag-ucla-bruins","60":"tag-umbc-retrievers","61":"tag-uni-panthers","62":"tag-utah-state-aggies","63":"tag-vanderbilt-commodores","64":"tag-vcu-rams","65":"tag-villanova-wildcats","66":"tag-virginia-cavaliers","67":"tag-wisconsin-badgers","68":"tag-wright-state-raiders"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":"Validation failed: Text character limit of 500 exceeded"},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/508565","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=508565"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/508565\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/508566"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=508565"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=508565"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=508565"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}