data tracked by Corey Sznajder<\/a>.<\/p>\nIf Jack isn\u2019t Jack, the Devils end up looking like they did this season. Optimizing Hughes\u2019 best is priority No. 1 for next season.<\/p>\n
5. Toronto\u2019s dump-and-chase stubbornness<\/p>\n
Only two Maple Leafs have carried the puck into the zone more than 55 percent of the time this season: Easton Cowan (62 percent) and William Nylander (58 percent). Only the Rangers and Predators have fewer such players.<\/p>\n
For Nylander, that\u2019s down from 73 percent the last two seasons, while Auston Matthews, who\u2019s usually above 60 percent, sits at just 53 percent this season. The Leafs might be getting older and slower, but the inability to enter the zone certainly looks like a choice. The next Leafs coach can\u2019t be this archaically predictable.<\/p>\n
6. Too little, too late for Stolarz and Bobrovsky<\/p>\n
One reason among many that the Leafs and Panthers will miss the playoffs this year is because of goaltending. Before the Olympic break, Anthony Stolarz had allowed 8.6 goals above expected over 17 games, while Sergei Bobrovsky had allowed 19.8 goals above expected over 40 games. It\u2019s hard to win games starting off with a half-goal deficit and both goalies found themselves in the league\u2019s bottom 10 as a result.<\/p>\n
Naturally, now that it\u2019s too late for both teams to get back on track, both goalies have reverted to their previous ways since the break. In six games, Stolarz has saved 6.8 goals above expected and boasts a .921 save percentage, while Bobrovsky has saved 3.5 in six games with a .905. This time, they\u2019re both in the top 15.\u00a0<\/p>\n
At the very least, that leaves some hope for both goalies returning to form next season.<\/p>\n
7. Ottawa\u2019s defense without Jake Sanderson<\/p>\n
The Senators were dealt a devastating blow to their playoff chances with the loss of Jake Sanderson, who was putting up some Norris-caliber numbers before getting hurt. Sanderson was a big part of Ottawa\u2019s defensive identity, taking care of the toughest assignments extremely well and allowing Thomas Chabot to thrive in a secondary role. With the injury, we now get to see just how big Sanderson\u2019s impact is in that regard and early returns have been telling.<\/p>\n
Ottawa has only played four games without Sanderson, but in that time, the Senators\u2019 xGA\/60 is 2.58, up from 2.14 with Sanderson in the lineup. Artem Zub, Sanderson\u2019s usual partner, has seen his xGA\/60 rise from 1.99 to 3.44 playing with Chabot instead, who has seen a similar rise from 2.33 to 3. It\u2019s a small sample, but it\u2019s one to keep an eye on as long as Sanderson is out of the lineup.<\/p>\n
8. Detroit\u2019s new shutdown pair<\/p>\n
It\u2019s always interesting to see how teams integrate new players into the lineup and Justin Faulk sure fits the bill in Detroit. Faulk filled the Red Wings\u2019 biggest deadline need and was naturally going to play with Ben Chiarot on the second pair. What I didn\u2019t expect: That pair being used as Detroit\u2019s shutdown pair over Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson.\u00a0<\/p>\n
It\u2019s a puzzling move given how strong the top pair has been in that role this season. While it\u2019s freed them up tremendously (64 percent xG share for Seider since the trade), I\u2019m worried about whether it\u2019ll be a worthy trade-off given Chiarot\u2019s previous inability to handle that burden. Faulk should help more than past options, but the pair has an expectedly low 43 percent xG together in that role.\u00a0<\/p>\n
That\u2019s an improvement over Chiarot\u2019s pair with Axel Sandin-Pellikka (41 percent in secondary matchups), but it still doesn\u2019t seem justifiable with a pair on the team that can handle the job much better. Finding the right balance in the top four will be key to Detroit maintaining its spot in the playoff race; I\u2019m not convinced this is the right path forward.<\/p>\n
9. The suddenly surging Blues<\/p>\n
The Blues have been one of this season\u2019s biggest disappointments this season and entered the Olympic break with a 20-28-9 record. What we\u2019ve seen since, though, looks a lot closer to the Jim Montgomery magic from last season that many fans hoped would continue with the Blues now on a 7-2-1 run.<\/p>\n
While it may be a bit annoying for fans hoping for a high pick, it is encouraging to see the players expected to be difference-makers this year looking the part again. The team\u2019s new-look top line has been especially encouraging with Robert Thomas, Dylan Holloway and Jimmy Snuggerud all scoring above a point-per-game pace while crushing opponents at five-on-five. Since being put together six games ago, they have a 65 percent xG and have outscored opponents 8-0. In net, they\u2019re finally getting some saves with Joel Hofer leading all goalies with 10.6 goals above expected in just six games (and Jordan Binnington has rebounded nicely, too).<\/p>\n
It may feel like a pyrrhic victory this late into the season, but it bodes well for next season that the Blues can return to the playoff hunt.<\/p>\n
10. Greener pastures for MacKenzie Weegar<\/p>\n
Playing for a losing franchise is tough. It\u2019s a combination of the mental toll piling up, playoff hope vanishing, and the burden of responsibility without enough support. That\u2019s what it looks like for a lot of players from Canada\u2019s saddest organizations and escaping those fates has looked good on MacKenzie Weegar in particular. Weegar has been a difference-making player for a long time, but struggled immensely in Calgary this year.<\/p>\n
Sometimes it\u2019s the player, sometimes it\u2019s the environment; Utah bet it was the latter and so far the Mammoth look right on the money to believe in Weegar. He immediately stepped onto Utah\u2019s top pair, taking on tough minutes and is back to looking like himself again. While he may only have one point in six games, Weegar has a 58 percent xG rate while allowing just 1.59 xGA\/60. His average Game Score has jumped from minus-0.25 to 0.69. He\u2019s back, and that\u2019s massive for a Utah back end whose biggest need was a two-way sidekick for Mikhail Sergachev.<\/p>\n
11. Mikhail Sergachev returning to form<\/p>\n
In the season\u2019s first half, Sergachev really struggled on Utah\u2019s top pair. He was bleeding chances and struggling to control play to the level he showed last season. Just before the Olympic break, though, he started to turn the corner with more consistent efforts. Since the break, he\u2019s been lights out with an average Game Score of 1.65 backed by a 60 percent xG rate while outscoring opponents 6-2. If Sergachev is back to playing like a legit No. 1 with a legit No. 2 beside him in Weegar, the Mammoth could make some real noise in the playoffs \u2014 especially if they sneak onto the Pacific side of the bracket.<\/p>\n
12. The rise of Elias Salomonsson<\/p>\n
There hasn\u2019t been a lot that\u2019s gone right for the Jets this year, but one thing that has is the play of rookie defenseman Elias Salomonsson. The 21-year-old has played 24 games for the Jets, but the most important have been the 20 he\u2019s played since Neal Pionk got hurt.\u00a0<\/p>\n
During that time, he leads the team with 58.3 percent of the expected goals while outscoring opponents 12-6, both of which lead the team\u2019s defenders. That\u2019s not in sheltered minutes either; he\u2019s been paired with Dylan Samberg in the top four, taking on equally tough minutes to Josh Morrissey\u2019s pair. The Jets look like they have a good one here.<\/p>\n
13. Matt Savoie is figuring it out<\/p>\n
It takes time for young players to learn the ropes in the big leagues and Matt Savoie\u2019s defensive work this year is a great example of that.<\/p>\n
Over the first two months of the season, Savoie had a 45.2 percent xG rate undermined mostly by allowing 3.22 xGA\/60, one of the 10 worst marks in the league. But every month, he\u2019s become a little better and he\u2019s been especially good since the Olympic break. In 10 games, Savoie has a 59 percent xG and has seen his xGA\/60 drop to 2.53. He\u2019s also getting the results to show for it and the effect of having the puck more has also been great for his production with 10 points in 11 games \u2014 eight of which have come at five-on-five.<\/p>\n
That\u2019s been enough to warrant another look next to Connor McDavid on the top line over the last three games. The duo had a failed experiment together back in November, but have tilted the ice heavily together over the past week with 67 percent of the expected goals.<\/p>\n
14. How Artemi Panarin has bolstered the Kings\u2019 power play<\/p>\n
Aside from one random season where they finished second, Los Angeles\u2019 power play has always been a pressure point during this era of playoff contention. The Kings finished 26th in goals-per-60 last season and were trending for a similar finish this year, landing at 27th before the Olympic break, scoring just 6.0 goals-per-60.<\/p>\n
The main reason for that is the team lacked true star talent; so, how much could the addition of Artemi Panarin change that equation? Turns out the answer is a fair bit, as expected. Since adding Panarin, Los Angeles\u2019 power play is up to 8.9 goals-per-60, the ninth-best mark in the league. That\u2019s no fluke either, with 10.4 expected goals per 60, the second-best mark in the league, and well up from where they were before the trade (7.0, 23rd).<\/p>\n
One other noteworthy tidbit: Brandt Clarke is up to 22 points in 31 games since becoming a permanent fixture on the Kings\u2019 top power-play unit. That\u2019s a 58-point pace. Not bad.<\/p>\n
15. Rasmus Andersson vs. Zach Whitecloud<\/p>\n
Back in January, Vegas traded a first-round pick and a conditional second for the privilege of upgrading from Zach Whitecloud to Rasmus Andersson. The only problem? It hasn\u2019t been much of an upgrade.\u00a0<\/p>\n
In Calgary, Andersson had a 45 percent xG rate and while that\u2019s up to 49.4 percent with Vegas, that\u2019s actually right on par with the 49.5 percent the Golden Knights were already getting with Whitecloud, who\u2019s up to 52.7 percent with the Flames. Andersson adds a little more production, sure, but even with that, his average Game Score in Vegas has been minus-0.18, way down from his 0.60 in Calgary. As for Whitecloud, he\u2019s been at 0.63 with the Flames, playing on the top pair with Kevin Bahl. Ouch.<\/p>\n
16. How much has Andersson\u2019s value dropped since the trade?<\/p>\n
According to AFP Analytics, Andersson is projected to sign a seven-year deal this summer as a UFA with a cap hit coming in at $9 million. That would\u2019ve been easier to see coming in Calgary, but I wonder how much his weaker play with the Golden Knights brings that number down.<\/p>\n
Teams have a lot of cap space and not a lot of players to sign, which makes pricing the few worthwhile players tricky. A desperate team might just give Andersson $9 million, no questions asked. But Andersson\u2019s work with Vegas has been alarming enough to wonder whether he still qualifies as \u201cworthwhile.\u201d His projected Net Rating is down to just plus-0.1, which is just average second-pair defenseman territory. On a seven-year deal, I\u2019ve got his current market value at just $4.5 million, with the second half of the deal looking particularly rough.\u00a0<\/p>\n
Unless his next team can really optimize his strengths and limit his weaknesses, Andersson\u2019s next deal could end up being one of this summer\u2019s biggest mistakes.<\/p>\n
\u2014 Data via Evolving Hockey, Hockey Stats, Hockey Stat Cards and All Three Zones.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Sometimes, a good coach is all a team needs to unlock the best version of themselves. That\u2019s exactly…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":512178,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":"","_share_on_mastodon":"0"},"categories":[3],"tags":[26,230,93,146,276,57,5,145,151,159,4,25,84,31,3154,39,109,18],"class_list":{"0":"post-512177","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nhl","8":"tag-calgary-flames","9":"tag-columbus-blue-jackets","10":"tag-detroit-red-wings","11":"tag-edmonton-oilers","12":"tag-fantasy-hockey","13":"tag-florida-panthers","14":"tag-hockey","15":"tag-los-angeles-kings","16":"tag-new-jersey-devils","17":"tag-new-york-islanders","18":"tag-nhl","19":"tag-ottawa-senators","20":"tag-st-louis-blues","21":"tag-toronto-maple-leafs","22":"tag-utah-mammoth","23":"tag-vegas-golden-knights","24":"tag-washington-capitals","25":"tag-winnipeg-jets"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116258266632049954","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/512177","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=512177"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/512177\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/512178"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=512177"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=512177"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=512177"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}