When the Colorado Avalanche shook the foundation of their core by trading Mikko Rantanen for Martin Necas, Jack Drury, and picks, we should have felt a sense of de ja vu, but we didn\u2019t. Intuition lost on many Avalanche fans and reporters alike (myself included).<\/p>\n
The Rantanen deal wasn\u2019t the first time we\u2019ve seen a team trade a superstar and attempt to \u201cmake up for it in the aggregate,\u201d as Chris MacFarland famously said following the deal.<\/p>\n
This management philosophy really started with the trade of Nomar Garciaparra by General Manager Theo Epstein, who, armed with analytics and a plush pocketbook, used analytics and \u2018team-building\u2019 methodology to reverse The Curse of the Great Bambino finally.<\/a><\/p>\n The idea that leveraging a beloved superstar for multiple undervalued isn\u2019t new around here. The Lindros trade, the Duchene deal, and now the Rantanen trade.<\/p>\n What\u2019s different this time around?<\/p>\n The Avalanche might have landed a player much closer to the capabilities and level of production that they sent on as Martin Necas sits just 12 points shy of 100 on the season, a marker that stands as a true line in the sand between really good and superstar. That reality could effectively frame the deal as a superstar swap with a Jack Drury sweater.<\/p>\n The question now becomes, can he do it?<\/p>\n First, we must consider if there\u2019s still enough runway for Marty\u2019s 100-point season to take flight. With Necas currently finding his cruising altitude at ~1.31 PPG and 12 games to get 12 points, it\u2019s not unreasonable to wonder if he does it with a game or two to spare. Add to that Marty has 7 points in his last three appearances, and I think we can make a strong case for optimism.<\/p>\n A more detailed look at the competition reveals even more evidence. Necas has historically (full career) scored a career average of 0.77 points per game against the teams left on the schedule. When you filter for Necas\u2019 more recent years, he\u2019s clipping at a more impressive ~1.05 points per game against teams on the remaining schedule.<\/p>\n The Avalanche will get the Stars one last time before season\u2019s end, and Necas has 7 points in the three meetings so far this season, and 11 points over the last three seasons\u2019 worth of matchups. He has made minced meat of the Kraken as well, the last few seasons, with 11 points in those six meetings. Guess who he logged his 30th goal of the season against?<\/p>\n The numbers are on Necas\u2019s side, but he\u2019ll have to see them through in a time frame when his Avalanche squad is trying to solidify itself as regular-season and Central Division Champs.<\/p>\n Martin Necas has had a multiple-point night 28 times this season. That means Necas has had a multi-point game in roughly 42% of the games he\u2019s played in. In the spirit of visiting Vegas during this final stretch run, let\u2019s call multi-point games a \u2018bonus.\u2019<\/a><\/p>\n Say Marty slightly deviates negatively from that trend and only has a multi-point night every third game, Necas should hit the bonus four times before the year\u2019s end.<\/p>\n Now we spin the wheel for the Mini, Minor, or Grand Prize.<\/p>\n The Mini prize is just the two-point night.<\/p>\n Necas has scored three or more points in a single game nine times this season, with three of such occasions coming against Vegas and Dallas, so let\u2019s call that the Minor Prize.<\/p>\n For the Grand Prize, we set aside the elusive but achievable (and achieved against Dallas) four-point night, which Necas has realized twice this season, as recently as the beginning of March.<\/p>\n Triggering the \u2018bonus\u2019 will prove paramount for Necas\u2019 quest to 100 points, and depending on the level of the prize, the mark could be reached sooner than we even anticipate.<\/p>\n Martin Necas isn\u2019t just a part of the Mikko Rantanen deal. He could be a 40-goal-scoring and 100-point-getting winger in 2025-26.<\/p>\n