{"id":527830,"date":"2026-03-28T16:46:13","date_gmt":"2026-03-28T16:46:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/527830\/"},"modified":"2026-03-28T16:46:13","modified_gmt":"2026-03-28T16:46:13","slug":"nhl-predictions-anaheim-ducks-vs-edmonton-oilers-march-28th","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/527830\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL Predictions: Anaheim Ducks vs Edmonton Oilers, March 28th"},"content":{"rendered":"

Welcome to another edition of NHL Predictions<\/a>. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look at the slate of games and give in-depth analysis. Our team breaks down the key matchups, storylines, and stats, then makes predictions based on how they might play out. This edition features a critical Pacific Division matchup as the Anaheim Ducks<\/a> visit the Edmonton Oilers. With the division race tightening and playoff positioning at stake, this game carries significant implications. Don\u2019t forget to check out more NHL Predictions as we continue tracking the 2025\u201326 race.<\/p>\n

NHL Predictions: Anaheim Ducks vs Edmonton Oilers<\/p>\n

2025\u201326 Season Series: Tied 1\u20131<\/p>\n

Time: 3:30 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT); 12:30 p.m. Pacific Daylight Time (PDT)<\/p>\n

How to Watch<\/a> \u2013 US TV: ESPN+, KTTV, Victory+ | Canada TV: SN+, SNW<\/p>\n

Location: Rogers Place, Edmonton, Alberta<\/p>\n

Setting the Stage<\/p>\n

Anaheim enters at 41\u201327\u20134, while Edmonton sits at 36\u201328\u20139 in what looks to be a defining game in the Pacific Division race. Importantly, the Ducks hold a five-point lead over the Oilers for first place, giving them a cushion but not security with limited games remaining.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Anaheim continues to surge, extending its point streak to six games and reinforcing its identity as one of the league\u2019s most resilient teams. However, that success has often come in comeback fashion, suggesting a concerning volatility still exists beneath the surface \u2013 something the Ducks will want to sort out before the playoffs.<\/p>\n

On the other side, Edmonton appears to be rounding into playoff form. Their recent overtime win over Vegas showcased improved defensive commitment and situational execution, particularly on a late penalty kill that directly led to the game-winning goal.<\/p>\n

This matchup presents a clear contrast. Anaheim is maximizing results, while Edmonton is tightening the process. That tension will likely define how this game unfolds.<\/p>\n

Anaheim Ducks Storyline<\/p>\n

Anaheim\u2019s recent success has been driven by elite finishing and timely offence. The Ducks continue to outperform many underlying metrics, yet they consistently find ways to win, particularly in high-leverage moments. Mikael Granlund<\/a> has emerged as a central driver, currently riding a dominant scoring stretch that includes completing a hat trick with one second left in overtime and multiple multi-point performances.<\/p>\n

Power play goal for Anaheim!Scored by Mikael Granlund with 00:01 remaining in the OT period.Assisted by John Carlson and Cutter Gauthier.Calgary: 2Anaheim: 3#ANAvsCGY #Flames #FlyTogether<\/p>\n

\u2014 NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social)<\/a> 2026-03-27T03:59:00.274962Z<\/a><\/p>\n

Furthermore, the Ducks are generating contributions throughout the lineup. Cutter Gauthier<\/a> remains a high-volume shooter, while Leo Carlsson<\/a> continues to anchor the top line with strong two-way play. The addition of John Carlson<\/a> has also begun to stabilize puck movement from the back end.<\/p>\n

However, defensive concerns remain. Anaheim still allows a high volume of quality chances, and their success often depends on goaltending and late-game execution. Lukas Dostal<\/a> has been steady, but against an offence like Edmonton\u2019s, defensive structure becomes far more critical.<\/p>\n

\u00a0<\/p>\n

If Anaheim can control the pace and limit extended defensive zone time, they can remain competitive. If not, the ice could tilt quickly.<\/p>\n

Edmonton Oilers Storyline<\/p>\n

Edmonton<\/a>\u2019s trajectory is shifting at the right time. The Oilers have won two straight and are beginning to play with the urgency expected from a team chasing the division lead. Their recent win over Vegas highlighted a more disciplined approach, particularly defensively.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Connor McDavid<\/a> continues to drive elite production, recording three points in that game while also reaching the 800-assist milestone. His ability to control transition and create high-danger opportunities remains unmatched. Maybe most notably, the one they call \u201cMcJesus\u201d scored a key goal when he opted to shoot on a 3-on-1 rather than pass, likely catching every person at T-Mobile Arena by surprise \u2013 maybe even himself included.<\/p>\n

Edmonton goal!Scored by Connor McDavid with 12:33 remaining in the 2nd period.Assisted by Vasily Podkolzin and Mattias Ekholm.Vegas: 1Edmonton: 2#EDMvsVGK #VegasBorn #LetsGoOilers<\/p>\n

\u2014 NHL Goals (@nhlgoals.bsky.social)<\/a> 2026-03-27T03:09:59.535028Z<\/a><\/p>\n

Furthermore, Edmonton\u2019s power play remains one of the most dangerous units in the league, operating above 30 percent. That presents a clear matchup advantage against Anaheim\u2019s inconsistent penalty kill.<\/p>\n

However, the Oilers are not without flaws. They allowed multiple equalizers against Vegas and still show lapses in defensive coverage. If those breakdowns persist, Anaheim has the finishing ability to capitalize.<\/p>\n

If Edmonton maintains its current level of detail while leveraging its offensive ceiling, it has the edge in this matchup.<\/p>\n

The Model<\/p>\n

The blended model leans toward Edmonton but still projects a competitive game. The in-house model incorporates five-on-five expected goal differential, special teams, projected goaltending, and game context.<\/p>\n

Internally, Edmonton lands around a 56\u201357 percent win probability. MoneyPuck aligns closely, projecting the Oilers at 57.1 percent, while HockeyStats is slightly more aggressive, placing Edmonton near 60 percent with a projected goal split around 3.8 to 3.1.<\/p>\n

After removing vig from the market line near -145, fair odds settle around -135 to -140. The market slightly favours Edmonton, but not overwhelmingly.<\/p>\n

Overall, this is a moderate edge rather than a decisive one.<\/p>\n

NHL Prediction<\/p>\n

This game ultimately comes down to sustainability versus urgency. Anaheim continues to win through execution and finishing, but its underlying profile suggests vulnerability against elite offensive teams.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Edmonton is trending toward a more complete game, combining its high-end offensive talent with improved defensive discipline. With playoff intensity increasing and home ice in their favour, the Oilers are positioned to dictate pace.<\/p>\n

Given the model alignment, situational urgency, and offensive advantage, the edge tilts toward Edmonton in a competitive but controlled contest.<\/p>\n

Prediction: Oilers win 4\u20133 (Model Probability: ~56%)<\/p>\n

2025\u201326 Season Prediction Record: 15\u201314<\/p>\n

Prop Bets of the Night<\/p>\n

This matchup sets up well for Edmonton\u2019s primary offensive drivers. First, Connor McDavid over 1.5 points (-120) aligns with both recent form and matchup context. Anaheim\u2019s defensive structure allows high-danger chances, and McDavid remains the focal point of every offensive sequence.<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins<\/a> over 2.5 shots (+150) provides a strong volume-based angle. With Leon Draisaitl<\/a> out, Nugent-Hopkins\u2019 role expands both at five-on-five and on the top power play unit. Meanwhile, Edmonton\u2019s offensive structure shifts slightly toward McDavid-driven entries with secondary shooters filling volume roles. Nugent-Hopkins benefits directly from that redistribution, particularly in sustained offensive zone time.<\/p>\n

Additionally, Anaheim continues to allow shot volume against, especially from the middle layers of the offensive zone. That profile aligns well with Nugent-Hopkins\u2019 usage, as he frequently operates in soft coverage areas and gets repeat looks rather than relying on rush chances.<\/p>\n

Together, these plays reflect a game environment where Edmonton controls possession and its top-end talent drives the outcome.<\/p>\n

2025\u201326 Season Betting Record: 34\u201327 (+8.71 units)<\/p>\n

Projected lineups and starting goaltenders are based on available information at the time of writing. Please check official team sources prior to placing any wagers.<\/p>\n

Please play responsibly. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.<\/p>\n

Main Photo: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Welcome to another edition of NHL Predictions. Each day, our writers here at Last Word On Hockey look…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":527831,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5125],"tags":[30596,198,146,369,5300,5,4,24],"class_list":{"0":"post-527830","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-edmonton-oilers","8":"tag-anaheim-ducks-predictions","9":"tag-edmonton","10":"tag-edmonton-oilers","11":"tag-edmonton-oilers-predictions","12":"tag-edmontonoilers","13":"tag-hockey","14":"tag-nhl","15":"tag-oilers"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116307819595949984","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/527830","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=527830"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/527830\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/527831"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=527830"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=527830"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=527830"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}