{"id":533025,"date":"2026-03-31T15:47:12","date_gmt":"2026-03-31T15:47:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/533025\/"},"modified":"2026-03-31T15:47:12","modified_gmt":"2026-03-31T15:47:12","slug":"the-wilds-fate-remains-in-the-crease-minnesota-wild","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/533025\/","title":{"rendered":"The Wild\u2019s Fate Remains In the Crease – Minnesota Wild"},"content":{"rendered":"

\n\tFor most of the Minnesota Wild\u2019s 25-year history, they\u2019ve been a defense-first team that focuses on limiting scoring chances and highlights strong goaltending. The Wild have made efforts with their recent core to change that. Players like Kirill Kaprizov<\/a>, Matt Boldy<\/a>, Quinn Hughes<\/a>, and Brock Faber<\/a> are among the most talented offensive players in team history.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tWhile Minnesota\u2019s new-look offense has had an excellent season<\/a>, the team has faltered a bit<\/a> in recent weeks. They\u2019re 4-5-1 in their last 10 games, including losses over teams towards the bottom of the league standings like the Chicago Blackhawks, the Toronto Maple Leafs, and the New York Rangers.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n\tMinnesota\u2019s recent struggles have highlighted something about its team: It\u2019s still heavily dependent on its goaltenders.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe tandem of the experienced Filip Gustavsson<\/a> and exciting rookie Jesper Wallstedt<\/a> has been a bright spot<\/a> for Minnesota all season. In recent weeks, the pair has faltered a bit, and the team hasn\u2019t been able to make up for the goaltending with its offense.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe best way to illustrate this trend is to look at the Wild and their goaltenders’ performance over the last ten games. Let\u2019s start with Filip Gustavsson, who has made six starts over that time frame. The following table shows the result of the game, the goaltender\u2019s goals saved above expected and save percentage, and what margin the Wild either won or lost the expected goals battle.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\"image.png\"\n<\/p>\n

\n\tGustavsson had two excellent games against the Dallas Stars and Chicago, but the rest of his run was concerning. The goaltender had a save percentage below .900 on four occasions and gave up more than a goal above expected in three games.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n\tTo make matters worse, the Wild performed well in expected goals with the edge in five of those six games. Minnesota is still outplaying its opponents, but Gustavsson\u2019s struggles have sunk its chances in some of those games.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThat fact is most evident in Gustavsson\u2019s last two starts, when the Wild played the Boston Bruins and the Tampa Bay Lightning fairly evenly in terms of quality of possession and scoring chances, but lost by a combined 12-6. You can see similar trends in rookie Jesper Wallstedt\u2019s recent play.\n<\/p>\n

\n\t\"image.png\"\n<\/p>\n

\n\tWallstedt\u2019s play has been a bit steadier, registering three games with a save percentage of .900 or above. While he\u2019s had a negative goals saved above expected rating in three of four starts, only one of them was more than a goal. Still, the Wild have outpaced their opponents by more than an expected goal in three of those four starts.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe team hasn\u2019t scored as well as expected, but it\u2019s still tough for the Wild to lose three games where they thoroughly outplayed their opponent.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tGoaltending was a particular issue in the Wild\u2019s game against Toronto. The Maple Leafs are enduring their worst season since 2015-16, and Minnesota should have picked up the points they needed against them.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe Wild played well, generating 4.16 expected goals for and giving up just 2.31, and did an excellent job limiting scoring chances. Toronto registered only one high-danger shot and two medium-danger shots. Jesper Wallstedt gave up three goals despite facing only 1.523 expected goals against, and all three of those goals were on low-danger shots.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tMinnesota has to get points in the standings in games like the one against the Leafs. The offense didn\u2019t finish quite as well as they should have, and Toronto goalie Anthony Stolarz<\/a> had a solid night in net. Even with that, the Wild needed better goaltending in a game they dominated.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tWhen you combine Gustavsson and Wallstedt\u2019s performances over the last ten games, they\u2019ve given up 3.59 more goals than expected, while the Wild are outperforming opponents by 11.96 combined goals. Minnesota has lost the expected goals battle only twice, yet is 4-5-1.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n\tIt may not seem like a profound observation that teams win when their goaltenders perform well and struggle when they don\u2019t. Still, the Wild\u2019s fate is particularly tied to its netminders\u2019 play. In their last ten games, they\u2019ve only won one game in which their goalie gave up more goals than expected. That game was a 4-3 OT win against Chicago, where Gustavsson gave up .01 more goals than expected, which is essentially negligible.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThere are two main takeaways from the recent trend that could frame things in a positive light.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tFirst, the Wild are still, by and large, playing well in games. They usually outplay their opponents, and even when they don\u2019t, it\u2019s usually close. Teams are bound to go through slumps throughout the season. As long as the underlying numbers are solid, things tend to regress to the mean. Minnesota is still playing good hockey; the results just aren\u2019t quite as strong.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n\tAnother wrinkle in this situation is that it\u2019s a sign they were wise to retain Jesper Wallstedt at the trade deadline. The Wild may have been open to trading<\/a> the young goaltender if the price was right. However, right now, they need two solid goaltenders in case one of them slumps when games matter the most.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n\tWhile they may be going through slumps at the moment, Gustavsson and Wallstedt are above-average goalies in the league. Their play in the Wild\u2019s last ten games is below their standard.\u00a0\n<\/p>\n

\n\tThe tandem has been a steady key to the team\u2019s success this season and is capable of righting the ship. Having two chances at that instead of just one is great for Minnesota. They can \u201cride the hot hand\u201d in the playoffs. If they had traded Wallstedt, it would have been a major risk if Gustavsson had been on a recent stretch of inconsistency.\n<\/p>\n

\n\tOne thing is clear as the Wild enter the stretch run. They\u2019ve attempted to build the team so they don\u2019t have to rely on low-event hockey with strong goaltending. Minnesota has made strides, but they aren\u2019t there yet. They\u2019re still going to need strong performances out of their goaltenders to succeed.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"For most of the Minnesota Wild\u2019s 25-year history, they\u2019ve been a defense-first team that focuses on limiting scoring…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":533026,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5118],"tags":[535,5,795,161,38,5280,4,162],"class_list":{"0":"post-533025","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-minnesota-wild","8":"tag-filip-gustavsson","9":"tag-hockey","10":"tag-jesper-wallstedt","11":"tag-minnesota","12":"tag-minnesota-wild","13":"tag-minnesotawild","14":"tag-nhl","15":"tag-wild"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/533025","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=533025"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/533025\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/533026"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=533025"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=533025"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=533025"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}