The Philadelphia Flyers have eight games left to make the playoffs, lose heartbreakingly due to a regulation wins tie-breaker, or just fall on their faces in the final two weeks and change. With eight games in 13 days, they have their work cut out for them to get over the hump, leaping over a few other teams while hoping some scoreboard watching goes their way. <\/p>\n
It couldn\u2019t have gone any better for the Flyers Tuesday night as Columbus, the Islanders, Detroit, and Ottawa all lost. Unfortunately the Flyers lost also. But as long as they\u2019re not mathematically eliminated, they have a chance. So let\u2019s take a look at the odds that are generally slim, what the other teams have in terms of their schedule, and what the big picture looks like.<\/p>\n
Odds aren\u2019t great, but there\u2019s a chance Flyers make playoffs<\/p>\n
Depending on the sites you visit, the Flyers have a puncher\u2019s chance to very little chance at all. But let\u2019s be hopeful and start with PlayoffStatus<\/a>. Should the Flyers run the board the rest of the way with eight consecutive victories, they\u2019re in and have a 76 per cent chance of ending up the second seed in the Metropolitan. So eight in a row and they have home-ice advantage in round one. However, considering the Flyers haven\u2019t won four in a row this season, believing they\u2019d win eight seems lofty. So, let\u2019s look at a 6-2-0 record. If they win six of their last eight, they have a 97 per cent chance of a playoff spot, and most likely the third seed in the Metro. Simply put, two three-game winning streaks the rest of the way and they\u2019re in. They have a little wiggle room but not much. <\/p>\n If they go 5-3-0, that percentage drops to 62 per cent, with the third seed still very much the most likely position. Anything .500 or worse and they\u2019re dead in the water. So they have to win more than half the games. But a .750 winning percentage should get them to game eighty-three. Again, not a great position to be in. However, they\u2019re still in control of their own destiny. For the time being.<\/p>\n Realistically, Philadelphia will be needing to take care of their own backyard while hoping they get some help here and there from whoever is playing Ottawa, Columbus, Detroit, or the Islanders. If it was just wondering how one team was doing, it would be much simpler for the Flyers to find their pathway to the post-season. But with four other teams in the same playoff chase neighborhood, it\u2019s crowded territory. Should the Flyers end up with more points than the Blue Jackets and the Islanders, they\u2019re the third seed in the Metropolitan. The Metropolitan route might be less complicated because it wouldn\u2019t matter what Detroit or Ottawa does or doesn\u2019t do with both in the Atlantic Division.<\/p>\n How the percentages and projections play out<\/p>\n Heading into Wednesday\u2019s schedule (which contains no games of consequence to the Flyers), the Flyers are three points behind the Islanders with two games in hand. And two points behind Columbus with a game in hand. Again, regulation wins are Philadelphia\u2019s Achilles heel; they have to out-point everyone else vying for a playoff spot. In terms of the wildcard spots, where Detroit and Ottawa come into the mix, all three teams (Flyers, Sens, Wings) all have the same games played and same amount of points. If Philadelphia is tied with either of them at season\u2019s end for the last wildcard spot, the Flyers are eliminated due to the first tiebreaker.<\/p>\n But without getting too deep into the numbers, here\u2019s what some of the other sites are calculating for these five teams regarding their percentages to make the playoffs and their point projections. (Note: the points projections are in brackets next to the percentages.)<\/p>\n TeamsMoneyPuck<\/a> The Athletic<\/a>HockeyStats<\/a>HockeyViz<\/a>Senators41% (95.4)50% (95.9)47% (95)55.8% (96)Red Wings32.2% (95.2)31% (95.2)28% (95)23.9% (94.5)Islanders52.7% (95.9)39% (95.1)37% (95)39.8% (94.9)Blue Jackets43.7% (95.6)50% (95.9)46% (95)45.1% (95.4)Flyers22.2% (94.3)18% (93.7)33% (95) 20.9% (93.8)<\/p>\n As you can see, it is not great looking if the projections are any measuring stick. The Islanders, Blue Jackets, and Senators seem to be the three that will have the best chance of securing a playoff spot, with Detroit and Philadelphia bringing up the rear. Again, anything can happen. So let\u2019s take a look at what might be the only thing favoring the Flyers. Or at least giving them a little more hope than what the aforementioned numbers suggest. We\u2019re talking about the schedule and who those teams might have to beat in order to secure a playoff spot. Here they are in no particular order. <\/p>\n How the schedule plays out for each<\/p>\n Islanders (89 points, 76 games played)<\/p>\n The Islanders have played the most games, so the half dozen they have left they\u2019ll have to make the most of them. But it won\u2019t be easy. Not by any stretch. The first of these is against the Flyers on Friday night. The following night they visit Carolina, the first of two games against the Hurricanes the rest of the way. Perhaps the oddest aspect of this schedule for New York is not playing again until April 9, which seems ridiculous given the condensed nature of the season. That game might be the easiest of the lot as they visit Toronto, but Toronto, like any other club out of it, would love to play spoiler and put a nail in any other team\u2019s playoff aspirations. <\/p>\n New York\u2019s final three are at home against Ottawa the afternoon of April 12, then the following night they are home to Montreal before wrapping up the season against Carolina. Of these remaining trio, only the finale against Carolina could see the opposition sitting some players given how they look to be close to locking up the Metropolitan Division title. If the Islanders have another advantage, it\u2019s that five of their six are at home. Their home record is 21-13-2. But they\u2019ve also won 21 games on the road. They have the most points of the five teams in the playoff hunt. And the fewest games left. <\/p>\n Columbus (88 points, 75 games played)<\/p>\n The Blue Jackets have three of their remaining seven games at home. And of the seven, only two of those might be considered easier. That includes a game Saturday night at home against Winnipeg and their final game at home against the Capitals on April 14. The other five aren\u2019t exactly bottom feeders as Carolina (tomorrow night), Detroit (April 7), Buffalo (April 9), Montreal (April11), and Boston (April 12) should most likely have something to play for, whether it\u2019s positioning, securing a playoff spot, or avoiding near elimination in the case of the Red Wings. <\/p>\n