{"id":536884,"date":"2026-04-02T16:55:19","date_gmt":"2026-04-02T16:55:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/536884\/"},"modified":"2026-04-02T16:55:19","modified_gmt":"2026-04-02T16:55:19","slug":"analyzing-the-potential-first-round-opponents-for-the-colorado-avalanche-nhl-insider-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/536884\/","title":{"rendered":"Analyzing the potential first-round opponents for the Colorado Avalanche | NHL Insider"},"content":{"rendered":"

Wednesday\u2019s loss to the Vancouver Canucks was an ugly one for the Avalanche.<\/p>\n

The odds are still very much in Colorado\u2019s favor.<\/p>\n

The Avalanche hold a 99.8% chance of winning the Central Division with eight games remaining in the regular season, according to Moneypuck.com. While it\u2019s possible for them to drop below the Dallas Stars, it\u2019s unlikely to happen. Even if the Stars won each of their final seven games, the Avalanche would only need to pick up six out of the 18 possible points they have left on their schedule because they own the tiebreakers.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not guaranteed. But it looks like the Avalanche are headed toward that top seed in the West and a matchup with the final wild card. With two weeks left in the season, there are seven teams that have a greater than 5% chance of securing that final spot.<\/p>\n

Minnesota Wild \u2013 0.2% chance<\/p>\n

This one is for the doom-and-gloom folks. Only 0.2%? So you\u2019re telling me there\u2019s a chance, as Lloyd Christmas would say. Not much of one, though. Everything down the stretch would have to go right for the Stars and everything would have to go wrong for the Avalanche.<\/p>\n

\"\"Minnesota Wild right wing Vladimir Tarasenko (91) celebrates with the bench after scoring against the Tampa Bay Lightning during the second period of an NHL hockey game Tuesday, March 24, 2026, in Tampa, Fla. (AP Photo\/Chris O\u2019Meara)<\/p>\n

Los Angeles Kings \u2013 21.7% chance<\/p>\n

Only one team has fewer regulation wins than the Kings, and, yet, they have the best odds of taking that final wild card spot. Why? Loser points. The Kings have lost 18 games in overtime or a shootout and those 18 points they\u2019ve picked up are the reason they\u2019ve hung in the race. Colorado had its way with Los Angeles this season, winning all three games and outscoring the Kings 13-5. The Kings have talent, but it just hasn\u2019t come together and they\u2019re a team the Avalanche should eliminate, easily.<\/p>\n

\"\"Los Angeles Kings players celebrate the team\u2019s win over the St. Louis Blues after an NHL hockey game, Wednesday, April 1, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo\/Kyusung Gong)<\/p>\n

San Jose Sharks \u2013 17.4% chance<\/p>\n

If you\u2019re rooting for fun, root for the Sharks to sneak in. Even if they don\u2019t, Macklin Celebrini has a real case for the Hart Trophy. He has an absurd 51 more points than the next closest player on that roster. This is a young and highly flawed team that has hung in the race because the bottom of the West is poor and it has found a way to outscore their defensive issues. They set an NHL record last week by becoming the first team in history to win three straight games on game-winning goals in the final 90 seconds of regulation. The Avalanche went 2-0-1 against them his season and, over the course of a seven-game series, would likely expose their defensive shortcomings.<\/p>\n

\"\"San Jose Sharks center Macklin Celebrini, middle, celebrates with teammates after an NHL hockey game against the Anaheim Ducks in San Jose, Calif., Wednesday, April 1, 2026. (AP Photo\/Jeff Chiu)<\/p>\n

Nashville Predators \u2013 16.1% chance<\/p>\n

Another team that looked out of it a month ago but has snuck back in because of one hot streak. Even when they were playing poorly at the start of the season, they gave the Avalanche trouble. Colorado went just 1-1-1 against them this season. Ryan O\u2019Reilly would do his best to make life miserable for Nathan MacKinnon, but Colorado still has the upper hand here. Juuse Saros getting hot is a potential concern, but he\u2019s been up and down for a few years now. Despite the troubles they\u2019ve given Colorado inside of games this year, the Avalanche are clearly the better team.<\/p>\n

\"\"Nashville Predators goaltender Juuse Saros (74) plays during the first period of an NHL hockey game against the Montreal Canadiens, Saturday, March 28, 2026, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo\/George Walker IV)<\/p>\n

Vegas Golden Knights \u2013 11.3% chance<\/p>\n

If the Avalanche end up facing Vegas in round one, the John Tortorella hiring didn\u2019t pay immediate dividends down the stretch. This group has greatly underachieved, thanks in large part to horrific goaltending. They have the worst five-on-five save percentage in the league and the third-worst overall. There would still be reason to be spooked playing this team because they have high-end talent like Jack Eichel and Mark Stone and have that Stanley Cup pedigree, but it\u2019s clear their goaltending can be exposed. Tortorella was brought in to shield that poor goaltending as much as he can. Colorado has won both games against them so far with the two teams set to play one more time.<\/p>\n

\"\"Vegas Golden Knights right wing Cole Smith (22) celebrates his empty-net goal against the Vancouver Canucks during the third period of an NHL hockey game Monday, March 30, 2026, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo\/Candice Ward)<\/p>\n

Winnipeg Jets \u2013 11% chance<\/p>\n

This is the matchup that scares Avalanche fans. The Jets slow down the game, and that\u2019s not how Colorado wants to play. Canada Life Centre has been a house of horrors for the Avalanche in the regular season and Connor Hellebuyck is very capable of stealing individual games, even if he hasn\u2019t done it in the playoffs. The Avalanche got to him early and often in the first round two years ago and there\u2019s a large gap between what he\u2019s been able to do in the playoffs compared to the regular season. Maybe the Olympics flipped a mental switch for him, though. Colorado is still the better team. But if there\u2019s a group they\u2019re hoping doesn\u2019t sneak in, it\u2019s probably this one.<\/p>\n

\"\"Winnipeg Jets goaltender Connor Hellebuyck (37) in the third period of an NHL hockey game Saturday, March 28, 2026, in Denver. (AP Photo\/David Zalubowski)<\/p>\n

Utah Mammoth \u2013 9.2% chance<\/p>\n

Another team that consistently plays the Avalanche hard because they\u2019re one of the few that can skate with Colorado. They\u2019d have to collapse to drop out of the top wild card spot, but anything is possible. This group has next-to-zero playoff experience. But like the Jets they\u2019re one the Avalanche prefer to avoid. Colorado won three of the four games between the teams this season, but they were all close matchups.<\/p>\n

\"\"Utah Mammoth center Logan Cooley (92) celebrates his goal with defenseman Mikhail Sergachev (98) during the first period of an NHL hockey game Saturday, March 28, 2026, in Los Angeles. (AP Photo\/Jae C. Hong)<\/p>\n

Seattle Kraken \u2013 7.3% chance<\/p>\n

This is not a very good team. They don\u2019t possess high-end talent up front. Their defense doesn\u2019t scare anyone. And they\u2019re the second-worst possession team in the league. The only reason they even have a shot at the playoffs is goaltending. Philipp Grubauer has had a resurgence this season after underwhelming for the majority of his contract there. Anything can happen in a series, but this is one where the Avalanche would possess a major advantage. The two teams play on the final day of the regular season, and it\u2019s a game that could matter if the Kraken get hot.<\/p>\n

\"\"Seattle Kraken center Bobby McMann, right, celebrates with defenseman Ryan Lindgren, center, and right wing Kaapo Kakko (84) after scoring during the second period of an NHL hockey game against the Buffalo Sabres, Saturday, March 28, 2026, in Buffalo, N.Y. (AP Photo\/Adrian Kraus)<\/p>\n

What I\u2019m hearing<\/p>\n

Nazem Kadri on the power play has been everything the Avalanche hoped for. At even strength, it\u2019s very much a work in progress. In 13 games, he has just three even strength points and he was a minus-5 Wednesday against Vancouver. \u201cI want to figure out which wingers are going to play with which centers,\u201d Jared Bednar said this week. When Nicolas Roy gets healthy, which could happen this weekend, it would make sense for him to be one. But they haven\u2019t found the right combination to unlock Kadri at five-on-five.<\/p>\n

The Avalanche have alternated goaltenders all season. Don\u2019t be surprised if they do it in the playoffs. That would go against the norm, but it sounds like that\u2019s where it\u2019s headed. \u201cI\u2019m not going to conventional wisdom where it\u2019s got to be one guy. That\u2019s not necessarily my plan,\u201d Bednar said.<\/p>\n

What I\u2019m seeing<\/p>\n

Saturday in Dallas, Brent Burns will play his 1,000th consecutive game \u2014 a ridiculous statistic given the man is in his 40s. I\u2019d wager we never see something like this happen again.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s the end of the season and the Edmonton Oilers are getting hot again. Would I bet on anyone other than the Oilers making it out of the Pacific Division bracket? Probably not.<\/p>\n

What I\u2019m thinking<\/p>\n

Chris MacFarland told the PDOcast this week he was trying to acquire a veteran left-handed defenseman prior to the deadline but it didn\u2019t work out. I haven\u2019t been terribly impressed with Nick Blankenburg\u2019s short stint thus far, so another defenseman could have been useful.<\/p>\n

Vegas does things to the beat of its own drum, but it does feel like a bit of their magic is wearing off. Firing your coach in the final month of a season is uncommon, to say the least, but if it works out, they\u2019ll look like geniuses. The Devils fired their coach with eight games left in the 2000 season and went on to win the Stanley Cup.<\/p>\n


\n
\n
\n <\/a>
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n
\n <\/a>
\n
\n
\n
\n <\/a>
\n
\n
\n
\n <\/a>
\n
\n
\n
\n <\/a>
\n <\/p>\n