April 6, 2026, 12:10 a.m. ET<\/p>\n
The Tampa Bay Lightning<\/a> (48-22-6) and the Buffalo Sabres<\/a> (46-23-8) meet Monday at KeyBank Center in Buffalo, New York. Puck drop is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET (NHL Network). Let’s analyze NHL odds around the Lightning vs. Sabres and make our expert NHL picks and predictions<\/a>.<\/p>\n Season series: Sabres lead 2-1<\/p>\n The Sabres won the most recent meeting in Buffalo as slight underdogs (+100) as the Over (6.5) easily cashed in a wild 8-7 victory on March 8. That game featured 7 combined third-period goals, and a total of 100 penalty minutes and 5 power-play goals. RW Josh Doan had the game-winning goal, 1 of his 2 markers, while C Tage Thompson added 4 assists, while D Bowen Byram had 3 helpers. Lightning start RW Nikita Kucherov had 2 goals and 3 points, while D Darren Raddysh added 3 apples.<\/p>\n Buffalo has 100 points, and it has clinched a playoff spot for the first time since 2011. It is just 2 points back of the Lightning for first place in the Atlantic Division, and Buffalo is tied with the Montreal Canadiens. Tampa and Montreal have a game in hand, however. At home, the Sabres are 24-10-4, tied for the fewest home losses in the Eastern Conference.<\/p>\n The Sabres lost 6-2 at the Washington Capitals Saturday, and it is just 2-3-2 across the past 7 games, allowing 30 goals in the span, or 4.3 goals per game (GPG). The Over is 5-2 in the 7-game span.<\/p>\n The Lightning topped the Boston Bruins 3-1 Saturday as moderate favorites (-180) as the Under (6) cashed. The Lightning are 8-1-2 in the past 11 games, while the Under is 3-1 in the previous 4 outings.<\/p>\n Watch the NHL on Fubo!<\/a>Lightning at Sabres odds<\/p>\n Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub<\/a> for a full list. Lines last updated at 12:03 a.m. ET.<\/p>\n Moneyline (ML): Lightning -118 (bet $118 to win $100) | Sabres -102 (bet $102 to win $100)Puck line (PL)\/Against the spread (ATS): Lightning -1.5 (+195) | Sabres +1.5 (-235)Over\/Under (O\/U): 6.5 (O: -105 | U: -115)Lightning at Sabres projected goalies<\/p>\n Andrei Vasilevskiy (36-13-4, 2.35 GAA, .909 SV%, 1 SO) vs. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (19-9-3, 2.56 GAA, .908 SV%, 1 SO)<\/p>\n Vasilevskiy wasn’t in the crease for that wild 8-7 loss to the Sabres last time these teams met, but he did allow 5 goals on 14 shots in a 6-2 loss to Buffalo at Benchmark International Arena Feb. 28, as he was pulled early in the second period. Since a somewhat shaky March by his standard, he is 2-0-0 with a 2.02 GAA and .913 SV% in 2 April starts.<\/p>\n Luukkonen allowed just 2 goals on 22 shots in a 4-1 loss Thursday at the Ottawa Senators, but he received poor offensive support. He was red-hot in March, going 6-1-1 with a 2.49 GAA and .916 SV% with 1 SO in 8 starts in that month. He won that wild 8-7 win on March 8 despite allowing 7 goals.<\/p>\n Lightning at Sabres picks and predictionsPrediction<\/p>\n Lightning 4, Sabres 3<\/p>\n TAMPA BAY (-118) is worth a look in this road outing against skidding Buffalo (-102).<\/p>\n The Lightning have been playing much better hockey, as they are 8-1-2 in the past 11 games. They’re ramping up for the playoffs, what they hope is a long run. The Sabres are rather inexperienced at this time of the year, and while Buffalo has snapped its playoff drought, it is playing like a team that is young and green.<\/p>\n The Sabres +1.5 (-275) will cost you nearly 3 times your potential return, and that’s way too much risk for a little bit of insurance.<\/p>\n On the flip side, Tampa Bay is just 3-3 on the puck line in the past 6 games as a favorite. Tampa Bay is also 0-3 in 3 tries against Buffalo as a favorite on the puck line this season, including 2 outright losses, so it can’t be trusted.<\/p>\n AVOID.<\/p>\n OVER 6.5 (-105) is the lean, but roll with a half-unit play at best.<\/p>\n The Under is 3-1 in the past 4 games for Tampa Bay, but the Over is 11-3-1 in the past 15 outings, including that wild 8-7 loss in Buffalo on March 8. The Over has cashed in all 3 meetings between these divisional teams this season.<\/p>\n The Over is 5-2 in the past 7 games for the Sabres, and Buffalo has allowed 30 goals in the span, or 4.3 GPG.<\/p>\n For more sports betting picks and tips, check out SportsbookWire.com<\/a> and BetFTW<\/a>.<\/p>\n Follow @danieledobish<\/a> on\u00a0Twitter\/X.\u00a0Follow SportsbookWire on Twitter\/X<\/a> and like us on Facebook<\/a>.<\/p>\n