{"id":543396,"date":"2026-04-06T06:39:19","date_gmt":"2026-04-06T06:39:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/543396\/"},"modified":"2026-04-06T06:39:19","modified_gmt":"2026-04-06T06:39:19","slug":"the-nhls-75-problem-knoblauch-drops-truth-bomb-about-leagues-harsh-reality","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/543396\/","title":{"rendered":"The NHL’s 75% Problem: Knoblauch drops truth bomb about league’s harsh reality"},"content":{"rendered":"

When Edmonton Oilers<\/a> coach Kris Knoblauch was talking this Saturday about Zach Hyman\u2019s injury this week and why the Oilers have decided to keep him out of games until the second last or final game of the season, he let drop one of the hardcore realities of life for a National Hockey League player, and the difference between winning and losing during the grind of the league playoffs.<\/p>\n

Asked about Hyman, the coach made it clear Hyman had been playing hurt some time, and his situation wasn\u2019t getting better so it was best to rest him up for the playoffs. \u201cWe wanted to just give him some rest so we can heal, and then he can be 100% for the playoffs.\u201d<\/p>\n

At that point, Knoblauch dropped his truth bomb about life in the NHL: \u201cA lot of our players are going through something,\u201d he said, then picked up on this notion a moment later. \u201cIt\u2019s an 82 game schedule. It\u2019s a physical game.
I would think that probably 75% of the guys are dealing with something at any game. There\u2019s always blocked shot, bruises, soreness, whatever it is. You know, very rarely is an NHL player of 100% all the time and or at any time\u2026 But with Zach, we feel that\u2019s with playoffs getting so close, and just, obviously, we know how important he is to our team, that we\u2019d like to make sure that he\u2019s in a position to help us as much as possible.\u201d<\/p>\n

After the game Knoblauch added that Hyman would either be back the second last game on April 13 against Colorado or the last game against Vancouver on April 16. If it\u2019s the last game, that would give Hyman a full two weeks of rest and recovery.<\/p>\n

\"77<\/a><\/p>\n

77 games<\/p>\n

My take<\/p>\n

1. I\u2019ll suggest that one of the things that most fans are least aware of is how many of the players are regularly playing hurt, and how many of a team\u2019s slumping players at any given team are in play below average hockey largely because of their injuries. This isn\u2019t always the case, of course, but I\u2019ve learned to look out for it and give player\u2019s the benefit of the doubt if they\u2019re hurt and aren\u2019t looking like their old selves. To some extent, I gave some benefit of the doubt to Trent Frederic earlier this year based on this notion and more recently have done the same with Tristan Jarry and Jake Walman, as well as with Hyman, who had clearly been off in his last dozen games or so.<\/p>\n

Players aren\u2019t always ineffective because they\u2019re stupid, or lazy, or simply off. Sometimes they\u2019re ineffective because they\u2019re banged up.<\/p>\n

It\u2019s an excellent rule of thumb to pause before assuming the worst about a player and consider if he\u2019s had some significant recent injury that largely explains the drop in play.<\/p>\n

Almost all NHLers are inconsistent to start with, but the 75% Problem only worsens this general tendency.<\/p>\n

2. Knoblauch\u2019s estimate of 75% of the players on a team playing hurt at any given time is no surprise if we factor in nagging injuries and major bumps and bruises. In fact, I suspect the number might be higher, with about one quarter of the players playing while trying to recover from a significant injury, such as Frederic earlier this year or Walman and Kasperi Kapanen more recently.<\/p>\n

3. The Oilers got off to another crappy start this year, so this year has been a grind from the start, with unrelenting pressure to win games having lost such a high number early on. This hasn\u2019t given the Oilers much time to provide its players with rest and recovery time, even as rest and recovery time are utterly critical to high level performance. Look at what\u2019s happened to the Florida Panthers this year, a dominating Stanley Cup champion that\u2019s out of the playoffs this year largely because it\u2019s had three gruelling seasons in a row, not enough time for rest and recovery, and unending injuries as a result. The Oilers have been comparatively healthy, even as their schedule over the three seasons has been the second most gruelling of any team other than Florida.<\/p>\n

4. It\u2019s excellent now that the Oilers have a few weeks before the playoffs to rest up players like Hyman and Draisaitl, and it\u2019s excellent that the team is on board with providing them a respite. When we look at Stanley Cup winners, we see that when it comes to their successful playoff runs, almost all of them enjoyed a great run of good health from the key players.<\/p>\n

The only real exception to that was the 2020 Tampa Bay Lightning, that won in spite of having star centre Steven Stamkos out of the lineup for all but one shift of the playoffs. When Tampa won in 2021 it also had key forward Alex Killorn out with injury after Game One of the Final. Nazem Kadri also missed the first three games of the Finals for the Avs in 2022. Vegas and Florida had all their key players healthy for the final, at least healthy enough to play the games.<\/p>\n

We\u2019ve sometimes heard from players on championship teams that they had amazing runs of luck avoiding injuries during their Cup-winning seasons. In those amazing runs, the 75% Problem become just the 20 or 30% Problem for their teams, and that good health provides a huge boost to their hopes.<\/p>\n

The Oilers haven\u2019t been so lucky. In 2023, both Leon Draisaitl and Darnell Nurse were hurt and played not anywhere near their \u201cA\u201d games. In 2024, key forward Evander Kane was banged up and had to drop out of the Florida series. In 2025, Zach Hyman, Edmonton\u2019s best winger through three rounds of the playoffs, missed the Final due to injury and Mattias Ekholm was banged up and not close to himself. The same goes for Trent Frederic, who could only bring his D+ game due to injuries in the 2025 playoffs.<\/p>\n

5. Edmonton is going to have to be really good to win the Stanley Cup this spring, but it\u2019s also going to have to be really smart and lucky when it comes to injuries. If one or two core players get hurt, the Oil\u2019s chances will be greatly diminished, which is why these late injuries to Hyman and Draisaitl are troubling.<\/p>\n

Will they be able to bring their \u201cA\u201d games?<\/p>\n

Will they and other key players stay healthy?<\/p>\n

Or will the 75% Problem prove to be too much for the Oilers, the injuries too plentiful and severe to overcome?<\/p>\n

No one knows, but I do know resting Hyman and Draisaitl is a great idea, and I hope the Oilers can find a way to rest other key players down the stretch as well. Outside of winning a few more games to lock up a playoff spot, it\u2019s the most crucial matter for the Edmonton Oilers<\/a> in this final leg of the season.<\/p>\n

At the Cult of Hockey<\/p>\n

LEAVINS: Oilers defensive awareness never more critical than when its big guns are silent: 9 Things<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"When Edmonton Oilers coach Kris Knoblauch was talking this Saturday about Zach Hyman\u2019s injury this week and why…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":543397,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5125],"tags":[10954,192,1809,198,146,5300,690,62,5,3144,4812,2854,370,868,231,2054,4,24,15,1489,187,92,1587,6769,893,1585],"class_list":{"0":"post-543396","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-edmonton-oilers","8":"tag-alex-killorn","9":"tag-colorado","10":"tag-darnell-nurse","11":"tag-edmonton","12":"tag-edmonton-oilers","13":"tag-edmontonoilers","14":"tag-evander-kane","15":"tag-florida","16":"tag-hockey","17":"tag-jake-walman","18":"tag-kasperi-kapanen","19":"tag-kris-knoblauch","20":"tag-leon-draisaitl","21":"tag-mattias-ekholm","22":"tag-nashville-predators","23":"tag-nazem-kadri","24":"tag-nhl","25":"tag-oilers","26":"tag-ryan-nugent-hopkins","27":"tag-steven-stamkos","28":"tag-tampa","29":"tag-tampa-bay-lightning","30":"tag-trent-frederic","31":"tag-tristan-jarry","32":"tag-vancouver","33":"tag-zach-hyman"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116356394905382274","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543396","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=543396"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/543396\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/543397"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=543396"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=543396"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=543396"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}