{"id":545800,"date":"2026-04-07T16:14:25","date_gmt":"2026-04-07T16:14:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/545800\/"},"modified":"2026-04-07T16:14:25","modified_gmt":"2026-04-07T16:14:25","slug":"nhl-playoff-update-7-clinched-6-close-while-the-red-wings-battle-their-own-math","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/545800\/","title":{"rendered":"NHL playoff update: 7 clinched, 6 close, while the Red Wings battle their own math"},"content":{"rendered":"

Red Light newsletter\u00a0\ud83c\udfd2\u00a0| This is\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s\u00a0hockey\u00a0newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here<\/a>\u00a0to receive Red Light directly in your inbox.<\/p>\n

Good morning to everyone except the \u201cpunch their ticket\u201d truthers<\/a>. I\u2019m right and you\u2019re wrong and I will not be discussing this further. OK, on to other, arguably as important things \u2026<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Tom Fitzgerald. (Bruce Bennett \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Ups and DownsPink slips<\/p>\n

The late-season firing trend continued last night, with news breaking that the New Jersey Devils will part ways with GM Tom Fitzgerald<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The move comes one day after the New York Islanders fired Patrick Roy, making it the second consecutive week<\/a> we\u2019ve had a coach firing on Sunday afternoon followed by a GM firing on Monday night.<\/p>\n

As with Brad Treliving a week ago<\/a>, the surprise here is more around the timing than the change itself. The Devils are almost certainly going to miss the playoffs for the second time in the last three years, and the fifth time since Fitzgerald became GM in 2020. Their win-loss record turned up the temperature on Fitzgerald\u2019s seat, which was already hot after his cap management led to the Devils missing out on Quinn Hughes<\/a> earlier in the season.<\/p>\n

The news leads to three big questions:<\/p>\n

Is Fitzgerald headed to Nashville? He once captained the Predators, whose current GM, Barry Trotz, has already pledged to step down.
\nWill this spell the end for Sheldon Keefe? He\u2019s been behind the Devils\u2019 bench for three years.
\nWill we see even more pink slips in the coming days? Just 10 days remain in the regular season.
\n\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Ottawa\u2019s Ridly Greig. (Chris Tanouye \/ Freestyle Photography \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Meanwhile, in the playoff race \u2026<\/p>\n

The push for the playoffs continues, and we seem to be getting some clarity around who\u2019s in. Seven teams have officially clinched:<\/p>\n

West<\/p>\n

Colorado Avalanche
\nDallas Stars
\nMinnesota Wild<\/p>\n

East<\/p>\n

Carolina Hurricanes
\nTampa Bay Lightning
\nBuffalo Sabres
\nMontreal Canadiens<\/p>\n

Six more teams are sitting at 95 percent odds or better in our projections<\/a>, meaning we can pencil them in too \u2014 welcome aboard to the Pittsburgh Penguins, Boston Bruins, Edmonton Oilers, Anaheim Ducks, Vegas Golden Knights and Utah Mammoth.<\/p>\n

That\u2019s 13 teams, meaning we\u2019ve basically got three spots up for grabs: the last wild card in the West, the last wild card in the East and third place in the Metro (which gets a spot even if that team ends up finishing behind the sixth-place team in the Atlantic, a scenario with non-zero odds of playing out).<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s get caught up on who\u2019s still in the race and how it seems to be shaking out. We\u2019ll go from the teams in the best shape to those in the worst.<\/p>\n

The Ottawa Senators have the best odds, sitting at 82 percent after Sunday\u2019s win over Carolina. They\u2019ve got the Lightning tonight, followed by a Florida Panthers team that spanked them last week, then the Islanders, who should be in full desperation mode. But the Senators finish with the Devils and Leafs, and more importantly, they control their own destiny. Also worth noting: They\u2019ll own the regulation wins tie-breaker against anyone.<\/p>\n

The Los Angeles Kings are up to 62 percent after last night\u2019s shootout win over the Nashville Predators, who dropped to 15 percent. That puts the Kings firmly in charge of that last wild-card spot in the West, especially with a schedule that serves up Seattle, Calgary and Vancouver twice among their final five games.<\/p>\n

The Philadelphia Flyers are making a late run, with eight wins in their last 11 to move to 46 percent odds. We\u2019d all but written them off a month ago, but they\u2019ve been able to make up ground as a frantic race morphed into a turtle derby. Their matchup with the Detroit Red Wings on Wednesday might be the most important game of the week.<\/p>\n

The Columbus Blue Jackets have been a great story since their coaching change, but six straight losses might doom them. The model says they\u2019re still at 34 percent, but that will plunge if they can\u2019t beat the Red Wings tonight.<\/p>\n

While they\u2019re technically ahead of Columbus in points, the New York Islanders have just four games left, one fewer than all the teams they\u2019re battling with, and their odds have plunged to 21 percent. The Patrick Roy firing may have come out of left field<\/a>, but after four straight regulation losses, you can understand the urgency. A reminder: Like the Flyers and Blue Jackets, the Islanders have two paths to the playoffs \u2014 they can get in by finishing third in the Metro or as a wild card.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re all rooting for the San Jose Sharks, but the model has them at just 22 percent after they beat the Blackhawks 3-2 last night. They\u2019ve got the Oilers and Ducks next, but then their last four \u2014 Vancouver, Nashville, Chicago and Winnipeg \u2014 look very winnable. If that\u2019s not motivation enough, a wild-card spot pushes 19-year-old Macklin Celebrini back into the thick of the Hart Trophy race.<\/p>\n

And finally, the Detroit Red Wings \u2026 well, the Red Wings need their own section. Meet me down below.<\/p>\n

(Several other teams are still alive, including the Winnipeg Jets at 10 percent, Washington Capitals at 8 percent, St. Louis Blues at 3 percent and the Calgary Flames, Seattle Kraken and Devils still technically having a pulse. But that\u2019s solidly into \u201cneed a miracle\u201d territory.)<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n (Bruce Bennett \/ Getty Images)<\/p>\n

Clipped Wings \ud83d\udcc9<\/p>\n

So yeah, the Red Wings. You remember them \u2014 good team, legendary GM, finally made the big deadline trade to bring in reinforcements in a season where they absolutely have to break their decade-long playoff drought, reputation for collapsing in March.<\/p>\n

The good news is the whole \u201ccan\u2019t win in March\u201d thing is no longer the story. The bad news is that\u2019s because we\u2019ve now added \u201cand look even worse in April<\/a>.\u201d Regulation losses in six of eight have plunged the Wings\u2019 playoff odds to 12 percent<\/a>, all but making both of this week\u2019s matchups with the Blue Jackets and Flyers must-wins.<\/p>\n

As always, when I\u2019m confused about a team I like to reach out to its beat writer, and Max Bultman<\/a> was willing to answer my call. Normally with these sorts of things, I come prepared with four or five questions. But this time, for the Red Wings, I had only two: What\u2019s going wrong, and what happens if they can\u2019t fix it?<\/p>\n

The last time we did this, it was because the Red Wings looked like they were going to cruise to the postseason, and maybe even push for the top seed in the East. At the time, I wrote that \u201cit would take an epic late-season collapse for them to miss.\u201d Since then, they\u2019ve gone 8-12-2, so \u2026 yeah. What\u2019s gone wrong?<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcac Bultman: \u201cIn short, injuries exposed their depth issues, and year-long five-on-five scoring struggles came back to bite them at the same time their goaltending came back down to earth \u2014 all while their special teams cratered in March.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe first sign of trouble came in late January, when the Red Wings lost Simon Edvinsson to injury for their final seven games before the Olympic break. They were actually fortunate that the break blunted the impact of that injury, but the Red Wings didn\u2019t handle it well and went 2-3-2 into the break. That was an early tell that their depth could become an issue down the stretch, considering they had been unsustainably healthy up until that point.<\/p>\n

\u201cDetroit tried to address its defensive depth by trading for Justin Faulk at the trade deadline. But hours after it made that trade, Dylan Larkin injured his knee in a loss, and Andrew Copp was injured two games later, leaving the Red Wings without both of their top two centers, as well as some of their depth with Michael Rasmussen and Nate Danielson getting hurt right around the same time. That made five-on-five offense \u2014 already an issue for Detroit all season \u2014 even harder to come by. While goaltender John Gibson covered that up for most of the year, he was more average in March, which left the Red Wings weakened on both ends of the scoreboard.<\/p>\n

\u201cThere certainly seems to be some psychological component, too. Coach Todd McLellan has talked about his team\u2019s struggles to stop the bleeding, and that has led to some especially ugly periods of late. When things go wrong for the Red Wings, they go really wrong \u2014 and they\u2019ve been going wrong for about five weeks now.\u201d<\/p>\n

What happens next if they actually blow this?<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcac Bultman: \u201cIt certainly would be tough to justify running it all back next year if they miss the playoffs for a 10th straight season. McLellan is only about 16 months into his tenure, and given all the success he had in his first calendar year with the team, this doesn\u2019t feel as simple as a coaching change \u2014 though those are coming fast and furious in the NHL right now, so who knows?<\/p>\n

\u201cSome level of roster changes feel inevitable, most likely centered around a forward group that can go stale too often. A barren free-agent market won\u2019t make that an easy problem to address, but they\u2019re going to have to get creative because this issue has followed them for years now.<\/p>\n

\u201cAnd then there\u2019s the one you\u2019re really asking about: I don\u2019t know what the answer will be on general manager Steve Yzerman. Ownership doesn\u2019t do much media here in Detroit. I\u2019m still skeptical he would be outright fired by the Ilitch family, but a collapse like this, in what was billed as a make-or-break year, could force ownership to explore some manner of front-office shakeup. With a lack of concrete information, it\u2019s hard to say anything definitively. But I can at least envision a scenario where he doesn\u2019t hold the GM title next year, and that\u2019s the first time in seven years I\u2019ve said that.\u201d<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n Patrick Roy during Game 7 of the 2002 Western Conference final. (Elsa \/ Getty Images \/ NHLI)<\/p>\n

Trivia time\ud83d\udca1<\/p>\n

It\u2019s been a rough few weeks for Wings fans, so let\u2019s cheer them up by reminding them how good they once had it. Unfortunately, that means we\u2019re going to have to kick Patrick Roy when he\u2019s down, but I\u2019m guessing he has other things on his mind this week.<\/p>\n

So, here\u2019s this week\u2019s relatively straightforward question: The Wings memorably shelled Roy to the tune of a 7-0 win in Game 7 of the 2002 Western Conference final. Can you name every future Hall of Famer in Detroit\u2019s lineup that night?<\/p>\n

Answer below.<\/p>\n

Coast to Coast<\/p>\n

\ud83d\uddfdThe PWHL made headlines by selling out Madison Square Garden over the weekend. Peter Baugh and Hailey Salvian looked at the league\u2019s future in New York<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc7a If you missed it, be sure to check out the 2026 goalie mask power rankings<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc76 Scott Wheeler\u2019s prospect pipeline is down to its final week. Today, the Flames slide into the third spot<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc08 Pierre LeBrun caught up with Panthers GM Bill Zito on his plans to rebound from a lost season<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udc54 With more coaching jobs about to open up, Joe Smith talked to the University of Denver\u2019s David Carle about a potential NHL return<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\ud83e\udd4a Wait, goaltender Igor Shesterkin \u2014 who brawled<\/a> with New Jersey\u2019s Jacob Markstr\u00f6m last week \u2014 has boxing coaches<\/a>?<\/p>\n

\ud83c\udf99\ufe0f On Monday\u2019s \u201cThe Athletic Hockey Show,\u201d the guys break down the Roy shocker and look at John Tortorella\u2019s first week in Vegas. Plus, Celebrini\u2019s late Hart push. Listen or watch here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

What to Watch<\/p>\n

It\u2019s another busy Tuesday, with 11 games on the slate.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcfa Blue Jackets @ Red Wings
7 p.m. ET on ESPN+<\/p>\n

It\u2019s not quite an elimination game, but it\u2019s going to feel that way for whichever slumping team comes out of this with yet another loss. Meanwhile, teams such as the Senators (who are hosting the Lightning) and Flyers (who are in New Jersey) will be watching the out-of-town scoreboard and hoping for a regulation result.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcfa Kraken @ Wild
8 p.m. ET on ESPN+<\/p>\n

It\u2019s getting late early for both teams, with the Wild running out of time to catch the Stars for home ice in the Central bar fight that will highlight Round 1. Meanwhile, the Kraken will need to run the table to have any chance in the Western race. In other words: It\u2019s a must-win for both teams, which makes it a fun watch for you.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udcfa Oilers @ Mammoth
9:30 p.m. ET on ESPN \/ SN360<\/p>\n

This suddenly feels like a first-round preview. The crossover Mammoth were trending towards being a sneaky playoff pick when their path through the Pacific started in Anaheim. Can they handle Connor McDavid and friends? Here\u2019s an early chance to find out.<\/p>\n

Full NHL schedule here<\/a>. Try streaming games like these for free on Fubo<\/a>.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\n The Detroit Red Wings celebrate with goaltender Dominik Hasek after their victory over the Colorado Avalanche in Game 7 of the 2002 Western Conference final. (Tom Pidgeon \/ Getty Images \/ NHLI)<\/p>\n

Trivia Answer<\/p>\n

On the night of that infamous blowout, the Red Wings lineup included future first-ballot Hall of Famers Steve Yzerman, Nicklas Lidstrom, Brendan Shanahan and Chris Chelios.<\/p>\n

That would be impressive enough, but don\u2019t forget that year\u2019s edition of the team also had UFA hired guns<\/a> Luc Robitaille and Brett Hull. Oh, and some guy named Domink Hasek in net.<\/p>\n

That brings us to seven. Are we done? We are not. That night\u2019s lineup also included a trio of Russian legends in Sergei Fedorov, Igor Larionov and a young Pavel Datsyuk.<\/p>\n

Add it all up, and that\u2019s 10 Hall of Famers in the lineup, meaning more than half of the Red Wings that saw the ice that night would ultimately receive the sport\u2019s highest honor.<\/p>\n

You know, maybe Roy and friends did well to hold that juggernaut to just seven goals.<\/p>\n

\ud83d\udceb Love Red Light? Check out The Athletic\u2019s other newsletters<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Red Light newsletter\u00a0\ud83c\udfd2\u00a0| This is\u00a0The Athletic\u2019s\u00a0hockey\u00a0newsletter.\u00a0Sign up here\u00a0to receive Red Light directly in your inbox. Good morning to…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":545801,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5101],"tags":[599,93,5137,5,4,3358,5138],"class_list":{"0":"post-545800","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-detroit-red-wings","8":"tag-detroit","9":"tag-detroit-red-wings","10":"tag-detroitredwings","11":"tag-hockey","12":"tag-nhl","13":"tag-red-wings","14":"tag-redwings"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116364317798587956","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545800","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=545800"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/545800\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/545801"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=545800"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=545800"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=545800"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}