{"id":547427,"date":"2026-04-08T13:31:14","date_gmt":"2026-04-08T13:31:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/547427\/"},"modified":"2026-04-08T13:31:14","modified_gmt":"2026-04-08T13:31:14","slug":"revisiting-the-playoffs-or-finish-in-last-place-preseason-thought-exercise-with-the-penguins","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/547427\/","title":{"rendered":"Revisiting the \u2018playoffs or finish in last place\u2019 preseason thought exercise with the Penguins"},"content":{"rendered":"

Thought about holding it off for the official clinching of a playoff ticket by the Penguins, but it\u2019s an off day and close enough. Here\u2019s a doozy to revisit from only seven months ago in mid-September, though it seems so much longer ago now. The Pensburgh article is entitled: \u201cBigger surprise for Penguins: playoffs or last place<\/a>?\u201d Now that we know how the season played out, it\u2019s fun to see.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn actuality, there probably won\u2019t be 15 elements of best case scenario to all hit, one after another.\u201d<\/p>\n

Is how the article wrapped up, and it still feels fairly unbelievable that just so much went right for the Penguins. In fact, you can even find 15 scenarios that worked out as just about the best possible way.<\/p>\n

Anthony Mantha has 31 goals and 61 points, scoring an eye-popping 2.62 points per 60 at 5v5Erik Karlsson has been playing at about a Norris caliber level, particularly in the second half of the seasonDan Muse is in the conversation for the Jack Adams awardEgor Chinakhov appeared out of thin air and has 17 goals and 33 points in 40 games with the Pens, producing at an almost unheard of 2.92 5v5 P\/60 rateBen Kindel did what almost never happens as a non top-10 draft picking stepping into the NHL at draft+1 and often being one of the better players on the ice as an 18-year oldParker Wotherspoon went from NHL bargain bin free agent signing to legitimately solid first pair defensemanRyan Shea continued his progression into a steady and confident playerEvgeni Malkin increased his statistical output from age-38 (50 points in 68 games) to his age-39 season (59 points in 54 games), taking his 5v5 P\/60 from 1.65 in 2024-25 (a career-low) back up to 2.49 this year, his highest rate since 2019-20Justin Brazeau (17) set a career-high in goals, more than doubling his career total of 16 goals that he entered the seasonThe fourth line became a massive positive difference maker; Connor Dewar notched highs in goals (14) and points (30), Acciari got back to double-digit goals for the first time since 2022-23, Blake Lizotte has been amazing when healthy.Tommy Novak shrugged off a bad 2024-25 and got back to his 2022-24 levels of a 40+ point seasonSidney Crosby remained Sidney Crosby, even at age 38 (72 points in 66 games)The power play sits at 6th in the NHL at 24.7%, essentially holding status quo from finishing 6th last season (25.8%)Penalty kill is 8th in the NHL at 81.7%, after spending much of the season in the top-5, improving from 18th in 2024-25<\/p>\n

OK, that\u2019s 14, but you get the idea. Maybe in the preseason it could be hoped for a few of those bullet points working out, though some are beyond the realm of even dreaming up and counting on happening. Turns out, every single one of them did. That\u2019s how a team becomes a shocking success story when so many over-perform realistic expectations.<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s see just how much the bright side hit, from the preseason prognostication:<\/p>\n

On the bright side: Dan Muse\u2019s coaching helps tightened up the defense a little better than the pure personnel would suggest, and that in turn helps Tristan Jarry have a bounce-back. Maybe the team even gets a surprise when Arturs Silovs figures things out at the NHL level and becomes a capable 1B type of goalie. The roster gets managed to the point where struggling veterans of the past (Kevin Hayes, Noel Acciari, Ryan Graves, Danton Heinen, etc) see their roles drastically reduced, if not taken off the NHL roster entirely via trades or waivers, and in their place young players like Owen Pickering, Ville Koivunen, Rutger McGroarty, Tristan Broz and Avery Hayes all form a 2016-ish type of wave of new talent to help the stars. And the stars shine, Sidney Crosby plays like Sidney Crosby, but the big surprise is that Evgeni Malkin doesn\u2019t go gentle into the night and plays\/produces more than last season. It also helps that across the division that none of the Islanders, Flyers or Blue Jackets are better than expected and the Rangers\u2019 strife continues.<\/p>\n

A lot of that came to pass, starting with Muse who infused a new energy and freshened up the place. Silovs has had his ups and downs but as technically still an NHL rookie (by league classification) he\u2019s done well. Goaltending for the Penguins has been better than the previous year, but it\u2019s really not carrying them or a leading reason they had a successful season. It\u2019s been an offensively-led club, Pittsburgh\u2019s 3.55 goals\/game<\/a> ranks second in the NHL and while everyone could see that the Pens had some quality forwards it would have been fairly crazy to predict they\u2019d be a top-five goal generating team in the league this year, until it happened.<\/p>\n

The Penguins may have collected bad contracts but the nuance is that they didn\u2019t play bad players K. Hayes saw his games go from 64 in 2024-25 to just 25 this year, Dumba, Graves and Heinen were all waived. Acciari, as he\u2019s destined to do, soldiered one and rightfully kept a spot in the NHL lineup through his play. Connor Clifton also settled into a regular spot when picked up for nothing.<\/p>\n

The young player glow-up didn\u2019t come from expected ways. Koivunen and McGroarty both disappointed, Pickering hasn\u2019t been seen in the NHL. It took Kindel, Chinakhov, Avery Hayes and Elmer Soderblom to give the lineup some youthful flourishes. But the team didn\u2019t succeed mainly because of youth, it remained older players in key roles. Malkin had a solid season, Sidney Crosby is Sidney Crosby. Bryan Rust has 64 points in 70 games, Rickard Rakell missed time with injury but still managed 24-goals and 48 points in 54 games. Mantha exploded, Karlsson played like a Hall of Famer. That\u2019s the backbone of the team and besides the fading Kris Letang, almost every single 30+ year old veteran had incredibly awesome seasons (well, Graves is 30 too but everyone has long since given up hope for him, so you get the idea).<\/p>\n

The other unknown element from September would be how Kyle Dubas would improve the team. Tristan Jarry started hot, but as he always does, plays worse in the second half of the season than the first and has now lost his starting job in Edmonton. Getting Stuart Skinner wasn\u2019t a massive upgrade, but it did give a steadier goalie, plus Brett Kulak, who became Sam Girard. The Chinakhov find deserves every bit of praise and joy it gets, adding Soderblom also looks like a good call. Dubas has had that managerial magic touch lately where all his moves seemingly hit.<\/p>\n

Here was our worst case scenario at the other end of the spectrum:<\/p>\n

And the darker outlook: Dan Muse is Mike Johnston 2.0 as a coach who proves to be better at developmental levels than the NHL. The defensive personnel plays to their talent level, which is not a pretty picture. The goaltending doesn\u2019t have much of a chance, but doesn\u2019t prop the team much up either. Then either through practical purposes or slow markets, the Pens aren\u2019t willing\/able to make sweeping changes and drop multiple under-performing veterans, so the Graves\/Hayes\/Acciari class of players continues to amble along with uninspiring NHL play, blocking younger players to the minors for much of the season. The best players on the team, all 30+, have some injuries in their ranks and players like Bryan Rust and Rickard Rakell can\u2019t replicate career-best seasons from last year. Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang\u2019s play continues to diminish. It\u2019s a long, cold winter in Pittsburgh and when it breaks they\u2019re at the bottom of the division and among the lowest-performing teams in the league. That leads to a 7-9% chance of winning the lottery, but they don\u2019t and draw the sixth overall pick<\/p>\n

You never know the impact of a coach, it\u2019s safe to say Muse has past the test to show a level of competency in his first season, to say the least. The other main element that you have to put yourself in shoes from seven months and almost 80 games ago is the defense. It did look horrible; Karlsson was spinning his wheels, Wotherspoon and Shea hadn\u2019t earned trust or demonstrated their competency, Girard wasn\u2019t even a trade rumor, etc. The defense still even might not be great, but well above passable compared to the perception it had coming into the year.<\/p>\n

Not too much of the pessimistic case hit. Letang\u2019s decline hasn\u2019t been graceful but that\u2019s about the single area that fits – besides Koivunen, McGroarty and Pickering all being in Wilkes-Barre for most the season. That says more about their own personal development at this point, unfortunately, than it does about being blocked by middling vets who don\u2019t have any business blocking them out of NHL opportunities.<\/p>\n

Add it all up and it was an unpredictable year of massive success for the Penguins. Their playoff spot is all but confirmed as they rocket along towards what looks like a second place finish in the division. It took a year of surprises and best case scenarios playing out to get to one of the more exciting and fulfilling seasons this team has had in a long time.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Thought about holding it off for the official clinching of a playoff ticket by the Penguins, but it\u2019s…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":547428,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5113],"tags":[3625,5,4,118,1469,100,5216],"class_list":{"0":"post-547427","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-pittsburgh-penguins","8":"tag-general","9":"tag-hockey","10":"tag-nhl","11":"tag-penguins","12":"tag-pittsburgh","13":"tag-pittsburgh-penguins","14":"tag-pittsburghpenguins"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116369338200007110","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547427","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=547427"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547427\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/547428"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=547427"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=547427"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=547427"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}