The Winnipeg Jets\u2019 .667 points percentage is sixth-best in the NHL since the Olympic break, and even though they can\u2019t afford to treat that as a reason to overlook their problems, it\u2019s motivating for Jets players.<\/p>\n
Their pursuit of a perfect 5-0-0 run to close the season and the stunning late-season push to a playoff spot that might come with it has been admirable.<\/p>\n
Mark Scheifele has scored his 900th point and tied Kyle Connor\u2019s franchise record with 97 points on the season. Connor has sailed past 30 goals for the eighth time in his career and is two goals away from reaching the 40-goal plateau for the second time.<\/p>\n
And Josh Morrissey is making so much of it work. When the Jets\u2019 secondary scoring disappeared to start the season, Winnipeg started playing Morrissey behind the Connor-Scheifele duo as often as possible \u2014 almost as much as Morrissey\u2019s ice time behind the other three lines combined. It has led to Winnipeg\u2019s most decisive, dynamic offence and helped cover defensive issues, too: Connor and Scheifele have outscored teams 44-30 with Morrissey on the ice and are getting beaten 33-24 with him on the bench.<\/p>\n
The good news \u2014 and part of what has made Winnipeg\u2019s late surge possible \u2014 is that the Jets are starting to get secondary scoring, too. This season, only four players have scored over half a point per game: Scheifele, Connor, Morrissey and Gabriel Vilardi. Seven Jets players accomplished that feat last season, with Vladislav Namestnikov missing by a single point.<\/p>\n
But since the Olympic break, Cole Perfetti has 13 points in 21 games, and the Jets have also gotten points from Alex Iafallo, Jonathan Toews, Adam Lowry and Morgan Barron. Brad Lambert appears to have rediscovered high-end offensive instincts, Neal Pionk is producing again, and a truly horrific power play got three great bounces and seems to have come to life.<\/p>\n
What a bittersweet moral victory.<\/p>\n
Can\u2019t the Jets do better than that, whether by making the playoffs after all their struggles or struggling again and earning a top-end NHL Draft pick? We\u2019ll look at Winnipeg\u2019s route to the playoffs, the lottery and more in this look at Jets trends.<\/p>\n
Path to a playoff spot, updated<\/p>\n
The Jets have 80 points and five games remaining. A perfect 5-0-0 record would take them to 90 points by season\u2019s end.<\/p>\n
They have also performed exactly as projected since we picked wins and losses for every game<\/a> left on the schedule, which is a fun aside. (If we\u2019re right about what comes next, the Jets will go 3-1-1 and close out the season with 87 points.) The Jets have 27 regulation wins, giving them the tiebreaker advantage against three of four rivals at the moment.<\/p>\n Those competitors:<\/p>\n \u2022 Nashville Predators: 84 points, four games left, 27 regulation wins The Jets don\u2019t have complete control over their destiny. Enough of their opponents play each other to guarantee somebody will pick up points between now and the end of the season, and a 4-1-0 record for L.A. or 5-1-0 record for San Jose would sink even a flawless 5-0-0 Jets run.<\/p>\n It hurts, too, that the Kings and Sharks have the easiest remaining schedule. Los Angeles has two games against the Vancouver Canucks, one against the Calgary Flames, one against the Seattle Kraken and a presumed tougher matchup against the Edmonton Oilers at home. San Jose\u2019s schedule is similar, with one game each against Edmonton, the Anaheim Ducks, Vancouver, Nashville, the Chicago Blackhawks and Winnipeg.<\/p>\n Let\u2019s look at the Jets\u2019 remaining games. They\u2019re 4-3-3 against this group of competitors thus far:<\/p>\n \u2022 April 9 at St. Louis Can you imagine if April 16\u2019s home game against San Jose had a playoff spot on the line?<\/p>\n The odds remain overwhelmingly against a playoff spot. I maintain my assertion that the Jets will play well but ultimately fall short. But there\u2019s a reason they play the games \u2014 and how funny would it be if I wrote a season preview titled, \u201cThe Winnipeg Jets are going to struggle. Don\u2019t count them out when they do,\u201d then proceeded to count them out too soon?<\/p>\n The path to a top draft pick<\/p>\n Five teams in the Eastern Conference are projected to miss the playoffs but have better records than Winnipeg does now. This has major implications for Winnipeg\u2019s draft pick.<\/p>\n If the Jets miss the playoffs and the standings remain as they are Wednesday, they\u2019ll pick ninth. If the Jets make the playoffs, the earliest they can pick is 17th \u2014 even if they finish with a worse record than a pile of teams in the East that don\u2019t make it. That drop-off is the difference between a projected second-line centre like Tynan Lawrence and a tier of players our analysts project to play further down an NHL lineup. (Corey Pronman projects a drop-off to that next tier starting at No. 9<\/a> overall, and Scott Wheeler\u2019s lower tier starts at No. 12<\/a>.)<\/p>\n Why is that such a big deal?<\/p>\n Remember that a 27-point version of Toews is Winnipeg\u2019s biggest UFA signing of the Jets 2.0 era. If you ignore Toews\u2019 games-played bonuses and determine \u201cbiggest signing\u201d by percentage of cap hit, the Jets\u2019 biggest UFA signing of the past 10 years is Gustav Nyquist. You have to go back to Mathieu Perreault\u2019s $3 million AAV signing back in 2014 to reach a bigger UFA signing relative to the salary cap. Every other Jets signing of note had been drafted and developed by Winnipeg or acquired by trade, then signed after they built a connection with the city.<\/p>\n But no-trade clauses are difficult to navigate, and the Jets\u2019 prospect pool isn\u2019t overflowing with tradeable excess; Winnipeg\u2019s best route to its next top-end player is through a top pick. If Pronman and Wheeler are right, there might be a tiny bit of wiggle room. I\u2019ve also been told by an NHL source with draft expertise that the drop-off will start after pick No. 7. This season\u2019s accidental misery is a unique opportunity.<\/p>\n Jonathan Toews, Masterton Trophy nominee<\/p>\n The Bill Masterton Memorial Trophy is an annual award under the trusteeship of the Professional Hockey Writers Association and is given to the player \u201cwho best exemplifies the qualities of perseverance, sportsmanship and dedication to hockey.\u201d<\/p>\n No Winnipeg Jet has ever won the award, but Toews has a fighting chance. It is difficult to imagine a more extreme example of perseverance and dedication to hockey than Toews\u2019 health-induced departure from the NHL, worldwide journey in search of answers and return to the best hockey league in the world after two full seasons away from it.<\/p>\n \u201cIt\u2019s definitely been super unpredictable, something that I never thought I would have to go through in my life,\u201d Toews said Monday. \u201cAt the same time, I am very thankful for all of the struggles because, honestly, it is cliche, but it\u2019s where I\u2019ve learned the most about myself \u2014 about hockey, about life and all of those things.\u201d<\/p>\n Many outside observers assumed Toews, 37, would retire, as his absence from the NHL stretched from one season to two. When he signed with Winnipeg last summer, it was reasonable to question what level he could get to. But Toews is one of the few players who have been forced to ask themselves who they were outside of hockey, then push through to the point that they could return to the sport.<\/p>\n I asked Toews about his oft-mentioned battle with his ego. How much of his struggle was psychological?<\/p>\n \u201cHow do you really separate the two, at the end of the day? I think we like to put things in categories and boxes, but they\u2019re all part of the same thing,\u201d Toews said. \u201cFor sure, it\u2019s psychological, it\u2019s physical, it\u2019s emotional \u2014 it\u2019s all of the above. So yeah, I was eager to get the opportunity in the NHL again, and I told myself I would do anything to go out there and help this team.\u201d<\/p>\n And his identity?<\/p>\n \u201cSometimes you have a story in your head as far as who you are as a person and as a player,\u201d he said. \u201cI pride myself on my experience and what I accomplished in the game and the way I\u2019ve played over the years. Like I said, sometimes you take a backseat or have a limited role, and it\u2019s a new opportunity to learn \u2014 to learn how to be a better teammate, a better person. That\u2019s part of it. When there are moments like that, you have to check that ego at the door.\u201d<\/p>\n The winner will be selected in a poll of all chapters of the PHWA at the end of the regular season.<\/p>\n Is the power play fixed?<\/p>\n Scott Arniel moved Toews to Winnipeg\u2019s top power-play unit Monday against Seattle, and suddenly the 28th-ranked power play caught fire. Winnipeg scored three power-play goals, with the first belonging to Toews, the second assisted by Toews and the third giving Scheifele his 900th career point.<\/p>\n The Jets are on pace to score 42 power-play goals this season \u2014 21 fewer goals than the Presidents\u2019 Trophy-winning Jets scored with the man advantage one year ago. Is it that simple, then? Toews has fixed things? Winnipeg\u2019s going to rattle off five straight wins because of his faceoff prowess and his assist on the game-winning goal?<\/p>\n Obviously not. Toews did everything right on his goal, establishing inside position against Ryan Lindgren, knocking down a puck and putting it past Philipp Grubauer to score. Do that often enough and good things will happen, but Toews could make that boxout many times over without Vilardi\u2019s deflection bouncing off the end boards and out front for Toews to try to knock down.<\/p>\n Toews\u2019 assist was fortunate, too \u2014 a cross-crease pass attempt that hit two Kraken defenders\u2019 skates before bouncing to Vilardi with time and space in the slot. Vilardi didn\u2019t waste the freebie, burying his uncontested shot top shelf. Winnipeg\u2019s third power-play goal came from Connor and went in off Lindgren\u2019s stick.<\/p>\n Despite the sudden scoring surge, several things are troubling about the Jets\u2019 power play:<\/p>\n \u2022 They\u2019ve been awarded the ninth-fewest power-play opportunities.<\/p>\n \u2022 They\u2019ve spent the least time in the league in the offensive zone.<\/p>\n \u2022 They\u2019ve struggled on faceoffs and zone entries relative to the league.<\/p>\n \u2022 They\u2019re winning fewer races to the end boards to recover pucks after missed shots.<\/p>\n In a league in which every three goals tends to correspond to roughly 1 standings point, the Jets\u2019 drop-off in power-play efficiency alone could be blamed for their impending playoffs miss. Give Winnipeg 7 more points and we\u2019re not playing the \u201cwhat if they go 5-0-0?\u201d game at all.<\/p>\n Give Toews credit for his net-front commitment. Appreciate his 59.2 power-play faceoff win rate, 20th best among players who have taken at least 100 power-play faceoffs. It\u2019s hard to believe Arniel\u2019s hunch has become a surefire fix.<\/p>\n \u201cWe got a little lucky,\u201d Scheifele said. \u201cBut there\u2019s other games where we\u2019ve had a lot of good looks and haven\u2019t gotten a goal. So, we just got rewarded for sticking with it.\u201d<\/p>\n A little luck would help for five more games, too, whether you\u2019re pulling for the draft pick or playoff hockey.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Winnipeg Jets\u2019 .667 points percentage is sixth-best in the NHL since the Olympic break, and even though…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":547496,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5115],"tags":[521,37,96,5263,5,4,18],"class_list":{"0":"post-547495","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-chicago-blackhawks","8":"tag-blackhawks","9":"tag-chicago","10":"tag-chicago-blackhawks","11":"tag-chicagoblackhawks","12":"tag-hockey","13":"tag-nhl","14":"tag-winnipeg-jets"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116369542692728279","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547495","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=547495"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/547495\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/547496"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=547495"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=547495"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=547495"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}
\u2022 Los Angeles Kings: 83 points, five games left, 19 regulation wins
\u2022 San Jose Sharks: 81 points, six games left, 25 regulation wins
\u2022 St. Louis Blues: 78 points, five games left, 29 regulation wins<\/p>\n
\u2022 April 11 vs. the Philadelphia Flyers
\u2022 April 13 at the Vegas Golden Knights
\u2022 April 14 at the Utah Mammoth
\u2022 April 16 vs. San Jose<\/p>\n