{"id":553798,"date":"2026-04-16T11:52:45","date_gmt":"2026-04-16T11:52:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/553798\/"},"modified":"2026-04-16T11:52:45","modified_gmt":"2026-04-16T11:52:45","slug":"maple-leafs-finally-know-their-nhl-draft-lottery-odds-chance-of-bruins-getting-1st-round-pick","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/553798\/","title":{"rendered":"Maple Leafs finally know their NHL Draft lottery odds, chance of Bruins getting 1st-round pick"},"content":{"rendered":"

Maple Leafs finally know their NHL Draft lottery odds, chance of Bruins getting 1st-round pick<\/a> originally appeared on The Sporting News<\/a>. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here<\/a>.<\/p>\n

The Toronto Maple Leafs<\/a> finally know their chances.<\/p>\n

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They’ve been wondering all season whether they’ll keep their first-round pick or convey it to the Boston Bruins<\/a>. Their NHL Draft lottery odds are now set.<\/p>\n

The Leafs “did what they could” by losing five of their last six games in regulation and dropping the other in overtime.<\/p>\n

It’s the pick that moved in the Brandon Carlo trade during the 2024-25 season. The Leafs sent a first-rounder and Fraser Minten to Boston in exchange for the defenseman Carlo.<\/p>\n

That first-round pick for 2026 had a protection on it: If it ends up being a top-five selection, the Maple Leafs keep the pick.<\/p>\n

If if ends up anywhere from No. 6 and beyond, the Bruins get to make the pick.<\/p>\n

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MORE:\u00a0Maple Leafs’ president brought AI trade pitches to deadline meetings<\/a><\/p>\n

Given the rough season in Toronto, losing a first-round pick in a quality draft class would add insult to injury.<\/p>\n

The Maple Leafs’ losing finish did put them into the fifth-best lottery odds.<\/p>\n

That’s\u00a08.5% chance of picking first, 8.6% for second, 0.3% for third and 24.5% for fifth. That leaves it at 56.2% of conveying their pick to the Bruins.<\/p>\n

That’s not perfect, but given that they spent much of the second half with higher than 80% chance of sending the pick to the Bruins, a nearly 50-50 chance has to feel at least a little bit better.<\/p>\n

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More NHL news:<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Maple Leafs finally know their NHL Draft lottery odds, chance of Bruins getting 1st-round pick originally appeared on…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":553799,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[462],"tags":[95,1529,4112,5,14752,4,465,591,466,31],"class_list":{"0":"post-553798","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nhl-draft","8":"tag-boston-bruins","9":"tag-brandon-carlo","10":"tag-fraser-minten","11":"tag-hockey","12":"tag-lottery-odds","13":"tag-nhl","14":"tag-nhl-draft","15":"tag-nhl-draft-lottery","16":"tag-nhl-entry-draft","17":"tag-toronto-maple-leafs"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116414249464974678","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553798","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=553798"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/553798\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/553799"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=553798"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=553798"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=553798"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}