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<\/a><\/p>\nEvery playoff team has a shot, no matter how mid (or actually bad) they are. This is hockey; stuff happens. Even a seven-game series can be heavily influenced by luck.<\/p>\n
The lower echelon for that is generally right where the Kings currently stand; it\u2019s difficult for a playoff team to start a series lower than 20 percent. Even with that, it feels uniquely difficult to envision an upset in this series based on everything we\u2019ve seen from both teams going back several seasons.<\/p>\n
This year, the Avalanche couldn\u2019t stop winning; the Kings couldn\u2019t stop stepping on rakes as they bumbled into the postseason. Over the past several playoffs, the Avalanche and Kings both have well-earned reputations: One as a team that can go all the way and the other that just doesn\u2019t have what it takes to go anywhere.<\/p>\n
Can that change? Maybe. More likely: This series ends exactly as you\u2019d expect. Quickly.<\/p>\n
The numbers<\/p>\n
The numbers are unsurprisingly lopsided.<\/p>\n Colorado\u2019s plus-80 Net Rating is a combination of overwhelming offense and strong defense. The Kings, known for their structure, are no pushovers with a plus-18 Defensive Rating; it\u2019s just their play on the other end of the ice that falls short.<\/p>\n And that rings true at five-on-five. The Avs lead the league with a 57 percent xG rate. The Kings aren\u2019t that far off thanks to their xG suppression, but the differences stem from offense. The Avs are dynamic. Colorado thrives off the rush and can sustain pressure with a strong cycle game to dominate zone time. A mobile blue line helps facilitate that.<\/p>\n The Kings have a mix of rush-based attackers and some good forecheckers, but their blueliners come with more risk. To L.A.\u2019s credit, the team has made some improvements since a coaching change in early March. The defense has been solid and the offense is on the rise \u2014 just not to the degree of the Avalanche.<\/p>\n It just hasn\u2019t translated to the power play. Neither of these teams is an ace on the advantage this year. The Kings have upped their game down the stretch, but aren\u2019t converting enough. They will be tested against an Avs penalty kill that doesn\u2019t allow many chances, and has even better goaltending.<\/p>\n Colorado\u2019s power play still isn\u2019t elite, but it\u2019s trending in the right direction. The Avalanche should have their chances to build on that in this series against a penalty kill that struggles to keep the puck out of the net.<\/p>\n The big question<\/p>\n How the hell do the Kings win this?<\/p>\n Generally speaking, the preview-writing game isn\u2019t all that demanding. In situations such as this, though, the road can get a little rocky. Any outcome in any series is theoretically possible \u2014 \u201cThat\u2019s why they play the games,\u201d as a wise man once said \u2014 but Avs-Kings comes about as close as you can to challenging that principle. In Colorado, we\u2019ve got a team that started the season on a record-breaking pace, wobbled a bit in January and then won 11 of its last 15 games. All systems go.<\/p>\n The Kings, meanwhile, deserve some credit for scraping enough points together down the stretch to secure the second wild card; they also tied with the Chicago Blackhawks for the second-fewest regulation wins in the league. That\u2019s 11 fewer than the St. Louis Blues, six fewer than the Nashville Predators and five fewer than the San Jose Sharks \u2014 the teams that finished immediately behind them in the wild-card standings. Mix in overtime victories and the Kings are still third from the bottom. Their minus-22 goal differential is worse than five non-qualifiers. The fact that they\u2019re in the playoffs at all borders on absurd.<\/p>\n Another issue: We know who the Kings are because they\u2019ve spent the last four springs showing us \u2014 a team juuuust lucky enough to slip into the postseason and get summarily stomped by an actual contender. This year, that responsibility falls to the Avs. Edmonton had a good run, but all of us (and even Kings fans would agree) are ready for a variation on the theme.<\/p>\n With that said, and in the interest of fairness and\/or base-covering, we\u2019ve come up with a three-point plan the Kings have to follow if they\u2019re going to make this interesting.<\/p>\n 1. Get some goaltending voodoo. We\u2019ve seen worse netminders than Anton Forsberg go into super-saiyan mode and steal a few games from a superior opponent. Since the Olympic break, Forsberg is seventh in the NHL in save percentage (.920) and 15th in goals saved above expected. Another option for the Kings: Throw in Darcy Kuemper and hope a) he\u2019s got secret knowledge of his ex-teammates\u2019 tendencies and b) he\u2019s capable of putting that knowledge into action. Not likely, but what can you do?<\/p>\n 2. Knock in some power-play goals. Scoring with the man advantage has been tough for the Kings \u2014 they were 28th in the league in power-play goals per 60 (6.0). They were better, though, at generating chances, finishing ninth in shots per 60 and 14th in expected goals. A few well-timed, lucky bounces, and who knows?<\/p>\n 3. Make it an Anze Kopitar legacy series. The future Hall of Famer\u2019s final season has been the least productive of his career; 1.78 points per 60 is his lowest output ever and the first time he\u2019s dipped below 2.39 since 2018-19. He\u2019s still a valuable defensive player, and if he can turn the clock halfway back to 2012, it\u2019d count for something.<\/p>\n The X-factor<\/p>\n Can Gabriel Landeskog stay healthy?<\/p>\n Colorado beamed with excitement over Landeskog\u2019s return last spring. But whether he could jump back into action, Stanley Cup playoff action no less, after missing three seasons was a real wild-card question for the Avalanche.<\/p>\n Understandably, he didn\u2019t return as the peak version of himself from seasons past. But over the past year, he has proven that he can be a true spark with top-six caliber play. In the regular season, Landeskog boosted the Avs\u2019 all-three-zone play, with his defensive puck touches and breakouts, to his forechecking and overall offensive influence. Add in his aura to the locker room, and his value has been undeniable.<\/p>\n If he is in the lineup.<\/p>\n That qualifier still exists, because Landeskog has been sidelined a couple times this year \u2014 with an upper-body injury in January, then a lower-body ailment in March. And his absence, again, left a hole in the lineup.<\/p>\n With him in the fold, the Avs have dominated games with a 45-7-8 record. So unlike last year, the question isn\u2019t what he has left in the tank \u2014 that\u2019s clear from his 60 regular-season games. It\u2019s whether he can stay healthy, because his presence is clearly a difference-maker.<\/p>\n The rosters<\/p>\n Here\u2019s the best (and possibly funniest) way to break down what the Kings are up against and what the difference between these two teams is.<\/p>\n If the Kings could trade their worst forward, Samuel Helenius, and their worst defenseman, Cody Ceci, for clones of Colorado\u2019s best, Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, this might be an even series. The rest of Colorado\u2019s forwards and defensemen add up to a plus-21 Net Rating, while the rest of Los Angeles\u2019 forwards and defensemen add up to plus-18. Just a casual two-for-two swap of a team\u2019s worst players for two of the best in the world, that\u2019s all it takes!<\/p>\n This is a similar problem to the one the Kings have run into in each of the last four playoffs against the Oilers. Edmonton had Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. The Kings did not. That\u2019s the ballgame. This time around, Colorado has MacKinnon and Makar. The Kings do not. That\u2019s also probably going to be the ballgame.<\/p>\n The difference is that the Avalanche can not only go pound-for-pound, but the rest of the team might also be better. Against the Oilers, you could squint at their usually weak depth and think, \u201cEhhh, maybe the Kings can win the other matchups.\u201d Is that true here? Ehhh, probably not.<\/p>\n The depth that Colorado has amassed over the past few years to get to this point has been astounding. The Avalanche are popular picks to win it all for good reason.<\/p>\n Martin Necas has filled the Mikko Rantanen role as seamlessly as possible after scoring 100 points. Jack Drury wasn\u2019t just a throw-in; he was one of the best bottom-six defensive centers in the league this season with a plus-5.5 Defensive Rating. Brock Nelson has answered Colorado\u2019s prayers as the 2C this team has been missing since Nazem Kadri left, putting up elite defensive numbers to go with a 65-point season. Speaking of Kadri, he\u2019s back, adding a jolt to the power play. With Artturi Lehkonen and Valeri Nichushkin holding over and a healthy Landeskog, Colorado\u2019s top nine looks as beefy as ever.<\/p>\n Compare that to the Kings, whose calling card has long been a stacked top nine that only seems to dwindle each season. The Kings used to have eight or nine above-average forwards according to Net Rating; they currently have just six. If Andrei Kuzmenko is out for the series, the gap between the top six and bottom six ends up being pretty pronounced, too, making the Kings a more top-heavy team than usual. That\u2019s pretty bad news when the top looks like, well, this.<\/p>\n To Los Angeles\u2019 credit, acquiring Artemi Panarin made everything look a lot better. If Kevin Fiala were healthy, maybe things would be different. The same goes for if Kopitar were 5-10 years younger, or if Quinton Byfield took the leap. But that\u2019s not the case, and what\u2019s here looks like a great sidekick and a nice second layer masquerading as top dogs. The Kings have just two forwards who scored 55 points-per-82 or more. Against Colorado, that has a high chance of being exposed, as is usually the case for Los Angeles in this setting. The fact that Panarin has shown a tendency to wilt when it matters most also isn\u2019t ideal.<\/p>\n On defense, it\u2019s a similar problem. Even if you ignore Makar, there\u2019s still a bit more to like on Colorado\u2019s side. The continued excellence of Devon Toews and the meteoric rise of Sam Malinski have kept Colorado\u2019s top four in tip-top shape. Brent Burns\u2019 agelessness and Josh Manson\u2019s rugged play give the Avalanche serious depth. This year, all five defensemen had a Net Rating higher than plus-9. Among Kings that were there all season, only Brandt Clarke could say the same \u2014 for both forwards and defensemen.<\/p>\n Clarke has blossomed this season and is becoming a legit No. 1 before our eyes. His puck-moving ability and offense have been excellent and he\u2019s cleaned up a lot without the puck. Drew Doughty is still a valuable two-way presence and Mikey Anderson remains one of the league\u2019s top defensive defenders. If the Kings didn\u2019t trade their own Malinski last summer, Jordan Spence, they might have something. It\u2019s a good trio, but it still falls short of Colorado\u2019s No. 2 to No. 4 options.<\/p>\n Beyond them, it\u2019s even bleaker with the almighty triumvirate of Joel Edmundson, Brian Dumoulin, and Cody Ceci \u2014 three bottom-pair guys. All three were outscored or out-chanced this season. Or in Ceci\u2019s case, both.<\/p>\n The Kings probably won\u2019t have a saving grace in net either, because the two best goalies in this series are both in Colorado. Regardless of who the Avalanche start, Scott Wedgewood or MacKenzie Blackwood, the Avalanche have the edge.<\/p>\n Over the past two seasons, Wedgewood and Blackwood have both saved over 20 goals above expected per 82 games, better than both Kings goalies. Forsberg, Los Angeles\u2019 presumed starter, is at 9.5 and while Kuemper sits at 15 goals saved, he\u2019s sagged immensely this season to minus-4.6 over 50 games.<\/p>\n The Avalanche have a lot of avenues to win here, from star-power to depth to offense to defense to goaltending. It would take a lot going wrong for the Kings to pull off the upset.<\/p>\n The key matchup<\/p>\n Martin Necas vs. Artemi Panarin<\/p>\n If you like high-end playmaking wingers, this might be the series for you. Necas put a bow on the first 100-point season of his career \u2014 not coincidentally, his first as MacKinnon\u2019s primary winger. Necas is a well-rounded offensive player who\u2019s capable of handling his share of puck-carrying, even with MacKinnon on the ice. In terms of generating shots and scoring chances, he\u2019s one of the most effective passers in the league. The most impressive thing about Necas, though, is that he\u2019s been a more-than-adequate replacement for Rantanen \u2014 and that\u2019s no knock on Rantanen.<\/p>\n Panarin, meanwhile, has produced at a nearly identical level this season with the Rangers (3.1 points per 60, 1.1 goal) and Kings (3 points per 60, 1 goal), and L.A. has won his minutes decisively (27-15, 53 percent expected goal share). The issue is that the Avs are even better with Necas on the ice (90-40, 55 percent expected goal share), illustrating the edge they have at the top of the lineup.<\/p>\n The bottom line<\/p>\n The Kings may have escaped another Round 1 matchup against the Oilers. But the reward is going head-to-head with the most dominant team in the regular season. Anything can happen in the playoffs, but the Avalanche are a force \u2014 it\u2019s their series to lose.<\/p>\n References<\/p>\n How these projections work<\/a> Resources<\/p>\n Evolving Hockey<\/a><\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n<\/a><\/p>\n
Understanding projection uncertainty\u00a0<\/a><\/p>\n
Natural Stat Trick<\/a>
Hockey Reference<\/a>
NHL<\/a>
All Three Zones Tracking<\/a> by Corey Sznajder<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Los Angeles Kings are playing a first-round series against an opponent other than the Edmonton Oilers. Our…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":554770,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[463,464],"tags":[144,5,145,4,60,14,104,718],"class_list":{"0":"post-554769","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-nhl-playoffs","8":"category-stanley-cup-playoffs","9":"tag-colorado-avalanche","10":"tag-hockey","11":"tag-los-angeles-kings","12":"tag-nhl","13":"tag-nhl-playoffs","14":"tag-stanley-cup","15":"tag-stanley-cup-playoffs","16":"tag-stanley-cup-playoffs-nhl"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116421947327261456","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/554769","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=554769"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/554769\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/554770"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=554769"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=554769"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=554769"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}