{"id":555346,"date":"2026-04-18T15:43:36","date_gmt":"2026-04-18T15:43:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/555346\/"},"modified":"2026-04-18T15:43:36","modified_gmt":"2026-04-18T15:43:36","slug":"four-things-the-canadiens-can-use-to-pull-off-the-upset-and-beat-the-lightning","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/555346\/","title":{"rendered":"Four things the Canadiens can use to pull off the upset and beat the Lightning"},"content":{"rendered":"

Martin St. Louis was asked a question about the success of the Tampa Bay Lightning on April 8.<\/p>\n

His Montreal Canadiens were set to face the Lightning the following day, and St. Louis had spoken often in the past, while the team was mired in its rebuild, about how the Lightning were a model for the Canadiens, something they hoped to become.<\/p>\n

Back then, St. Louis was not about to face the Lightning and his counterpart and former coach Jon Cooper in a seven-game series; it was just one game, albeit a very big one. And thus, he was able to discuss what he admired about the Lightning freely.<\/p>\n

\u201cI was there with Cooper his first year. He coached me from the deadline to the deadline. I didn\u2019t have him for a full season, but he coached me for one year,\u201d St. Louis said after practice that day. \u201cAnd he taught a lot about playing together offensively, and it was a very good offensive team when he took over. But it wasn\u2019t enough to be a good offensive team.<\/p>\n

\u201cIf you look at their path, I think they were leading Columbus 3-0 in Game 1 of the (2019) playoffs and they lost that game, and they lost the series in four games. So there was an evolution. They learned to win by closing games, and that\u2019s the defensive side of the game. When they went through that evolution, that\u2019s a team that won two Stanley Cups and made the final another year.<\/p>\n

\u201cIt\u2019s part of their success, being able to evolve. Just because something worked seven years ago doesn\u2019t mean it will work today.\u201d<\/p>\n

It was a thoughtful, insightful answer.<\/p>\n

Fast forward to Friday afternoon after practice, two days before the Canadiens will face Cooper and the Lightning in Game 1 of their first-round playoff series. St. Louis was asked about what he learned from Cooper. He paused for several seconds, then repeated the question \u2014 \u201cWhat did I learn from Coop?\u201d \u2014 and continued thinking.<\/p>\n

He could have easily drawn on the elements of his long answer about the Lightning nine days earlier. Instead, he was very brief.<\/p>\n

\u201cProbably the way he communicates, I would say,\u201d he finally said. \u201cYeah.\u201d<\/p>\n

Later, he was asked about his legend status with the Lightning, the banner with his No. 26 that hangs from the rafters of Benchmark International Arena. St. Louis was equally brief and to the point.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think the first time I went there it was a little weird, but I\u2019m so far removed from that,\u201d he said. \u201cI don\u2019t have any emotion attached to the Lightning.<\/p>\n

\u201cZero.\u201d<\/p>\n

In a way, the matchup between St. Louis and Cooper is indicative of the matchup between the Canadiens and the Lightning.<\/p>\n

Four years into his coaching career, St. Louis is the fourth-longest-tenured coach in the NHL. He is one of the brightest young coaching minds in the league and has a very promising future ahead of him. But he has coached five playoff games.<\/p>\n

Cooper has coached 155 playoff games, won two Stanley Cups and reached the final two other times.<\/p>\n

On the surface, it seems like a mismatch<\/a>. But St. Louis is confident regardless, much like his young team.<\/p>\n

\u201cI\u2019ll give you facts: They\u2019re a veteran team that\u2019s been pretty much the standard for the last seven-plus years, eight years, 10 years. They\u2019re good. We\u2019re good too,\u201d St. Louis said Thursday.<\/p>\n

The Canadiens will need a lot to go right for them. Our Dom Luszczyszyn\u2019s model gives the Canadiens a 21 percent chance of winning<\/a> and a 19 percent chance of getting swept.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re not quite as pessimistic about the Canadiens\u2019 chances. However, a few key areas that will need to come through for them to pull off the upset against a legitimate, playoff-hardened, veteran Stanley Cup contender.<\/p>\n

Bring the fight<\/p>\n

The day after St. Louis gave that long answer, which was 10 days after facing them in Tampa, the Canadiens hosted the Lightning at the Bell Centre.<\/p>\n

The Canadiens knew full well the Lightning were going to try to lay the groundwork for what looked like an eventual playoff series, because that previous meeting had also gone off the rails. Lightning forward Corey Perry was laying that groundwork from the start<\/a>. And then, late in the first period, Canadiens forward Josh Anderson got into it with Lightning superstar Nikita Kucherov. He gave Kucherov a little tap with his stick, took a harder slash back from Kucherov, and the situation escalated, with Anderson going after Kucherov near the Canadiens bench.<\/p>\n

From that point on, the Lightning lost the plot; playoff positioning and a shot at winning the division didn\u2019t seem to matter as much as Anderson going after their franchise player.<\/p>\n

This is a blueprint for the Canadiens.<\/p>\n

The Lightning are nasty and coming off back-to-back first-round losses to a Florida Panthers team that out-nastied them, which is why they are built the way they are.<\/p>\n

The Canadiens don\u2019t have as many nasty elements in their lineup, and Anderson can\u2019t do it alone.<\/p>\n

Many fans are wondering why Kirby Dach appears to have a spot in the lineup for Game 1. This is one reason why. He can bring that nastiness, that heaviness, and it seems to be something he is prepared to do, even if he didn\u2019t bring it in his final five regular-season games after returning early from injury.<\/p>\n

\u201cYou\u2019ve just got to play a big, heavy style, hold on to pucks below the goal line, try and take a few to the net. Just use my size to my advantage,\u201d Dach said Thursday. \u201cThe game against Tampa last Thursday was a pretty good indicator of what this series could look like and what it\u2019s going to be like. I think as a group we\u2019re confident, we\u2019re focused and ready for Game 1.\u201d<\/p>\n

Aside from Dach, the Canadiens\u2019 primary source of nastiness will be the blue line.<\/p>\n

Kaiden Guhle has talked all season about how the Canadiens\u2019 defence, starting with him, needed to be \u201cpricks\u201d against the opposition. When asked where his prick meter was at heading into the playoffs, Guhle didn\u2019t want to give too much away.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe\u2019ll see on Sunday,\u201d he said. \u201cI like getting in guys\u2019 faces, pissing guys off. I like when the other team\u2019s yelling at me and kind of giving me s\u2014. I feel like if other teams aren\u2019t doing that to me, I feel like I\u2019m not doing my job. It\u2019s fun to kind of be in the fire, it gets you into the game.\u201d<\/p>\n

And then there\u2019s the projected pairing of Jayden Struble and Arber Xhekaj, two players who have been fighting for the same role in the lineup all season but who are both expected to dress in the absence of Noah Dobson, out with an apparent hand injury.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think we both play physical and we can kind of wear down their forwards as the series goes on,\u201d Xhekaj said Friday. \u201cIt\u2019s going to be especially important because we like to play that game, and I think you\u2019ve got to let Laner (Hutson) do his thing, and obviously (Alexandre) Carrier too, and Guhles and Mike (Matheson) will be our shutdown pair.<\/p>\n

\u201cI think our job will kind of be to get things going if we need it.\u201d<\/p>\n

The Canadiens will surely need it.<\/p>\n

\"Montreal<\/p>\n

\n Kirby Dach will be relied on the bring a level of nastiness to the Canadiens\u2019 first-round series against the Lightning. (Eric Bolte \/ Imagn Images)<\/p>\n

Elevated play from struggling forwards<\/p>\n

Dach has played only five games since returning from injury and did not look great in any of them. Zack Bolduc has had six points in his last 19 games since the trade deadline. Alexandre Texier has had two points in his last 12 games since that date. Oliver Kapanen has five points in 22 games since then.<\/p>\n

Anderson has three points in 18 games since the deadline, but he brings something else that\u2019s valuable. Each of those four forwards will need to similarly bring something valuable in the coming days or weeks if they\u2019re not scoring, and it\u2019s probably a bit different for each of them. Kapanen\u2019s lack of production can be offset by his responsible defensive play. Dach and Bolduc can provide strong forechecking and puck possession and a physical presence. Texier is a versatile facilitator, a complementary player who can do things that lead to offence without necessarily providing offence himself, which explains his presence on a line with Alex Newhook and Ivan Demidov.<\/p>\n

\u201cI find players when they get in the playoffs, they raise their game in terms of intensity and everything,\u201d St. Louis said Thursday.<\/p>\n

He gave that answer specifically about Kapanen, but it applies to the other forwards looking for themselves right now.<\/p>\n

Lacking production, those forwards will need to make those secondary contributions, because there is little doubt Anderson can have an impact on this series without registering a single point. Can any of them?<\/p>\n

Win the goaltending standoff<\/p>\n

Similar to the coaching matchup, Andrei Vasilevskiy, a legend in the Lightning net, is going up against Jakub Dobe\u0161, a rookie who outmatched Vasilevskiy twice in those two late-season meetings, allowing a single goal in both games.<\/p>\n

Dobe\u0161 is a unique character, but he is highly competitive and has been one of the league\u2019s best goaltenders since the trade deadline.<\/p>\n

When Juraj Slafkovsk\u00fd was told that Thursday, he raised an eyebrow.<\/p>\n

Slafkovsk\u00fd is easily Dobe\u0161\u2019s biggest tormentor. The ribbing is constant. One is Slovak, the other is Czech. It\u2019s to be expected.<\/p>\n

But since the deadline, according to HockeyStats.com\u2019s model, Dobe\u0161 led the NHL in goals saved above expected, a stat that caused Slafkovsk\u00fd\u2019s eyebrow to lower.<\/p>\n

\u201cHe\u2019s really competitive,\u201d Slafkovsk\u00fd said. \u201cHe works hard, he spends a lot of time with (goaltending coach) Marco (Marciano) to watch his clips and do his goalie stuff that I don\u2019t understand. He\u2019s working hard on the ice. I feel like he\u2019s a gamer.\u201d<\/p>\n

For Dobe\u0161, the increased playing time since the trade deadline \u2014 when Sam Montembeault was demoted to No. 3 status and the road was cleared for Dobe\u0161 to become the No. 1 \u2014 has helped. And those two games against the Lightning in particular put him in a good frame of mind heading into this series.<\/p>\n

\u201cDefinitely the first couple of games I played against him \u2026 I was lucky enough to win,\u201d he said Friday. \u201cSo I feel like there\u2019s still a lot of respect. He\u2019s a great goaltender, but I don\u2019t feel like the fear is there as much as the first couple of times we played him because he\u2019s one of the best goalies in the league. I don\u2019t have that much experience. I have some, but playing against a goalie like that, it\u2019s good to realize you can beat him and you can have a good series against him.\u201d<\/p>\n

Feed off the lingering effects<\/p>\n

Nick Suzuki. Cole Caufield. Jake Evans. Brendan Gallagher. Phillip Danault. Anderson.<\/p>\n

None has won a Stanley Cup. All of them lost the 2021 Stanley Cup Final to the Lightning. No one else on the Canadiens was on that Cup final team, while the Lightning have eight players who played in that series, which doesn\u2019t seem like a huge difference.<\/p>\n

Except the Canadiens have gone through a rebuild in the five years since, whereas the Lightning\u2019s core has remained largely unchanged.<\/p>\n

When Suzuki was asked Friday if anything lingers from that series, his initial response was to chuckle.<\/p>\n

\u201cIs there anything lingering?\u201d he said. \u201cI mean, we lost a Cup, so there\u2019s definitely emotions and feelings on how that ended for us, and the guys that experienced that can lean on that and show the guys in the room what it takes to win in the playoffs.\u201d<\/p>\n

In other words, that is fuel. More than the words, Suzuki\u2019s chuckle made that clear. It\u2019s a bruise. A scar. An opportunity lost.<\/p>\n

And ever since that Game 5 in Tampa was lost five years ago and those six players had to watch the Lightning celebrate their second Cup win, that bruise has seemingly not healed. That fuel needs to be used in this series.<\/p>\n

\u201cYeah, I guess in a way it is a full circle moment,\u201d Evans said. \u201cWe\u2019re obviously on the rise right now. I guess it\u2019s just a different series than the last time. We\u2019re a younger team with a ton of skill, and I felt like the other team was built on our vets that just played a simple game and didn\u2019t give up much. So yeah, it\u2019s a good test for us to see where we\u2019re at from five years ago and see where we\u2019ve gone.<\/p>\n

\u201cWe have a lot of confidence in ourselves.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Martin St. Louis was asked a question about the success of the Tampa Bay Lightning on April 8.…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":555347,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5105],"tags":[5,189,21,4,540,92,5168,5167],"class_list":{"0":"post-555346","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-tampa-bay-lightning","8":"tag-hockey","9":"tag-lightning","10":"tag-montreal-canadiens","11":"tag-nhl","12":"tag-tampa-bay","13":"tag-tampa-bay-lightning","14":"tag-tampabay","15":"tag-tampabaylightning"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116426481630352326","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555346","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=555346"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/555346\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/555347"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=555346"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=555346"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=555346"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}