{"id":556175,"date":"2026-04-19T17:49:32","date_gmt":"2026-04-19T17:49:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/556175\/"},"modified":"2026-04-19T17:49:32","modified_gmt":"2026-04-19T17:49:32","slug":"canadiens-vs-lightning-game-1-prediction-stanley-cup-playoffs-odds-picks-best-bets","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/556175\/","title":{"rendered":"Canadiens vs. Lightning Game 1 prediction: Stanley Cup Playoffs odds, picks, best bets"},"content":{"rendered":"

\t\tGambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our links. Read our editorial standards<\/a> for more information.<\/p>\n

For the first time in the modern NHL<\/a> playoff era, we\u2019ll get a Stanley Cup Final<\/a> rematch in the first round: the Lightning and Canadiens, who battled for the Cup in the 2021 COVID-19 season.<\/p>\n

The Lightning, whom FanDuel is heavily favoring in Game 1 at -192, look to have a smoother playoff road without the Panthers in their way this year. All that losing to Florida helped shape a more physical Tampa Bay identity, with the Lightning finishing as the league leader in penalty minutes this season.<\/p>\n

Montreal\u2019s team of young guns returns to the playoffs for a second-straight year after seemingly being neck-deep in a rebuild at the beginning of last season. That\u2019s a positive in itself as Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield had career seasons while Lane Hutson, Juraj Slafkovsky and Ivan Demidov all took steps forward in their respective arcs.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Canadiens vs. Lightning prediction, best bet<\/p>\n

On home ice with a significant experience edge, Tampa is primed to set the tone in this series early after first-round exits in back-to-back seasons. Aside from motives, there are bigger separators in play, beginning with Tampa\u2019s ability to suppress chances.\u00a0<\/p>\n

The Bolts survived a myriad of injuries to their defensive rotation throughout the season and still finished third overall in goals-against rate and on the penalty kill.<\/p>\n

\"AprCanadiens forward Nick Suzuki (14) skates during the warmup before the game against the Columbus Blue Jackets at the Bell Centre. IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect<\/p>\n

Montreal\u2019s success path is too dependent on its top line. Its two wins against Tampa Bay in the last couple of weeks were on the backs of Suzuki, Caufield and Slafkovsky. That trio will have their hands full facing Jon Cooper\u2019s line-matching, backed by an elite blueline and defensive forward depth that shuts down 5-on-5 offense.<\/p>\n

The goaltending disparity is stark. Andrei Vasilevskiy brings 10 years of playoff experience, including two Cups and a Conn Smythe to the crease. Montreal\u2019s three-headed platoon combines for five games of playoff experience and an .871 save percentage \u2014 all of which played in last year\u2019s first-round exit.\u00a0<\/p>\n

Tampa went 33-1-0 when leading after two periods and 24-5-1 when leading after the first period, so expect them to seal this if Nikita Kucherov and co. find the scoresheet early.\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

Betting on the NHL? <\/p>\n

THE PLAY: Lightning 60 min moneyline (-130, FanDuel<\/a>)<\/p>\n

Why Trust New York Post Betting<\/p>\n

Sean Treppedi handicaps the NFL, NHL, MLB and college football for the New York Post. He primarily focuses on picks that reflect market value while tracking trends to mitigate risk.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"Gambling content 21+. The New York Post may receive an affiliate commission if you sign up through our…\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":556176,"comment_status":"","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5103],"tags":[183,265,5,264,21,5147,4,351,43,171,352,104,92],"class_list":{"0":"post-556175","1":"post","2":"type-post","3":"status-publish","4":"format-standard","5":"has-post-thumbnail","7":"category-montreal-canadiens","8":"tag-betting","9":"tag-canadiens","10":"tag-hockey","11":"tag-montreal","12":"tag-montreal-canadiens","13":"tag-montrealcanadiens","14":"tag-nhl","15":"tag-nhl-betting","16":"tag-sports","17":"tag-sports-betting","18":"tag-sports-picks","19":"tag-stanley-cup-playoffs","20":"tag-tampa-bay-lightning"},"share_on_mastodon":{"url":"https:\/\/channels.im\/@nhl\/116432639403489800","error":""},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/556175","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=556175"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/556175\/revisions"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/556176"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=556175"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=556175"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.rawchili.com\/nhl\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=556175"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}